British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season Race Preview

British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season

Racing Preview - May 25th

Today's Races

[96] : Goodwood 4:45, 6f Maiden (5) Div I

[97] : Goodwood 5:20, 6f Maiden (5) Div II

[98] : Haydock 2:10, 5f Auction (5) Div I

[99] : Haydock 2:45, 5f Auction (5)Div II

[100] : Newmarket 2:20, 6f Maiden Fillies' (4)

[101] : Pontefract 7:30, 6f Conditions (2)

Checkout
Trainer :	Trainer John Dunlop's approach to 2yo racing and in particular the debut runs is covered at length in two articles on this site. He has his first two runners of the season today with Kristal Glory (Goodwood Div I) and Night Skier (Newmarket) both owner breds for 'Windflower Overseas Holdings (WOH)' in the yellow and red halved colours. The 'WOH' acronym has jokingly been termed 'Win Only Handicaps' because, similar to Mark Prescott's MO, they breed a lot of stout stayers which Mr Dunlop sets up for their 3yo handicap caereers over 12f+ with some less competitive runs at 2yo. However, if both are running now they may have some ability although it is worth noting that Kristal Glory's full brother made a July debut over 6f and won his 5th outing over 8f at 2yo. In the last two seasons the debuts Mr Dunlop has made by the end of June have included 11 winners in the season and 18 non-winners so being in his early batches doesn't mean it's a competitive 2yo (unlike a number of other trainers). His first runner last year was Scarlet Runner in the same maiden that Night Skier runs in. We'll return to Mr Dunlop after we've seen wome of the early debuts but a reminder to be alert for the early debut for Hamdan Al Maktoum.
Paddock Review :
Ratings :	Liberty Belle ran in a Listed race on her debut last week and started at 100/1. She ran very well after showing some initial inexperience and made good progress from 10th (and last) to fifth from 2 furlongs out before it stalled but she kept on well enough to hold that position behind some of the fastest fillies seen out so far. Her trainer has declared three horses for better class races on debut this year with Kingsgate Castle a non-runner in a Listed event and Really Really Wish unplaced at Windsor on Monday. Over-rating Listed races and believing there is a 'gulf in class' to bridge between good maidens and those contests is a very easy mistake to make. Often the Listed races are not that much stronger and a 5th placer not certain to go and iron out a maiden filed next go. Liberty Belle was give a B2yoR rating of 66 which is strong for a debut and more so given the trainer's normal approach with these types. So, how will she fare at Newmarket when up to 6f against some solid opposition ridden by a 3lb claimer? If we presume she improves just a little after a short break then a standard around 70 would need a high class debut run to beat her. But, even though B2yoR tries hard the trap of over-rating Listed & Group events is very difficult to avoid so the race will be a good test of the rating. The opposition is good enough to give that rating a test although Pixie's Blue would be one to oppose and has got easily outpaced in both her races to date. She stayed on into second last week here when the race was all over and the two leaders fading back into her. Henry Cecil never used to waste debut runs and his better quality runners won or placed last year FTO - apart from Passage Of Time oddly who was 15/8f against colts. As it turned out they were a bunch of good colts headed by Tobosa. As an example of this think about Cavalry Guard's debut second to Cockney Rebel in 2006 - Mr Cecil's runner is still knocking about maidens and the other is a good looking Classic winner. They finished close together FTO because that's the preparation Mr Cecil gives them. His Dea Caelestis was a non-runner here last week but given her background she ought to be a strong debut here. Better than the 6th by the sales purchased Lady Lily in a stronger edition of the race last year. Jeremy Noseda ran Sander Camillo in the race last year and runs Relinquished today. He appears already to have run his 'Sander Camillo' with Baffled earlier in the week but we should presume she is a competitive 2yo at least. Michael Bell runs the very well related Dresden Doll to complete a good field and a porper test for Liberty Belle's rating.
Other :	First season sire Kris Kin has his first runner with Kryptonite for John Hills at Goodwood in the first division of the maiden. He didn't receive good support at stud and his yearlings made little impact at the sales. His own performances were no precocious with a late season maiden win prior to developing over middle distances. But, although low quality Kryptonite's dam adds some 5f zip and he looked a 2yo type at the sales. Mr Hills gets below average results with 2yos, debut wins are rare and their careers don't always develop consitently. So, a win today would be an oddity but Krytonite is one to be interested in.

May 25th Summary :

Limited profile time at present. In the first Division of the Goodwood maiden those with previous runs set just a reasonable standard and one that Latin Scholar could reach if Alan King is still getting his 2yos very fit for debut with Kings Wonder of some interest. At Haydock the auction races look quite low standard and Captain Dunne ought to compete well for the win in the second division.

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