British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - May 28th 
Today's Races
  • [108] : Carlisle 2:25, 5f Maiden (5)
  • [109] : Chepstow 2:55, 6.1f Seller (6)
  • [110] : Leicester 3:45, 5f Maiden (5)
  • [111] : Redcar 2:05, 5f Novice (5)

  • Checkout
    Trainer :
  • Trainer Michael Jarvis had his first runner of the season at Leicester with Magnol. He is in charge of a strong stable with good support from major arab owners and has an above average record with 2yos. The number of juvenile runners has increased notably in the last 2 seasons to be joint seventh in the trainer's list by number of runners in 2006. In 2005 this lead to no more winners than normal but then a jump to as many as 19 last year and a strike rate above 18%.
  • He is notable for having his runners wound up for debut and, like Paul Blockley and others, this shows with more 'sweaters', 'dancers' and generally taut FTO horses. This readiness leads to him getting an above average strike rate with debut runners and this reached a high of 27% with a very good group in 2003 and at 12.5% last year with more runners (remember than only 6% of FTO 2yos win across the whole season).
  • In general he is a 'Show Or Nothing' debut trainer with, for example, 8 of his ten season winners in 2003 making the first three first go; 5 of 12 in 2004 with 6 others either 4th or 5th in big fields; 9 of 13 in 2005 and 13 of 19 last year. He gets debut wins throughout the seasons at all distances which reflects his similar preparation of all types of 2yo.
  • He is notable for getting debut wins with the best of his early runners when he sends them to courses in the Midlands or North. His runner to make their debuts by the end of May (this season is a late start) in the period 2003-6 have included 7 winners during the year and 8 non-winners. Magnol looks more of the limited owner bred type than the arab owned speedster and is by the sire Tobougg who made a good start in 2006 but has only had a single 5f winner overall. However, now he has got going we should be looking out for the debut winners and how their presence or absence indicates the quality of 2yo he has.
  • At the other end of the spectrum we have Alan Swinbank's first runner with Mr Lu at Carlisle. He is much more of the develop-them-with-racing type trainer and his two high class 2yos in 2006 - Stevie Gee & Valbenny - won on their thid outings after moderate debuts and solid improvement STO. If they had been with Mr Jarvis they would probably have been ready to iron out some indifferent bunch at Nottingham ASAP.
  • As with Mr Jarvis he had his best year numerically last year with 8 winners from just 12 runners and a near 23% strike rate. Given the rise in overall profile of the stable recently, highlighted by the success of Collier Hill & Formal Decree (before his sale) he would seem a stable to track and take seriously in 2007 although with his development style taking into account. Valbenny's 3TO win was at 9/1 and Stevie Gee was 8/1 so there may be some value if we can spot the good ones as they progress.
  • Paddock Review :
  • 'Horse Of The Week' - Pundits often talk about 2yos as being 'babies' but they aren't, they're teenagers at various stages and we know how much the maturity of that age group can vary in humans. To call 2yos 'babies' paints the speaker into a verbal corner - what are you going to call foals or even yearlings if you start down the '2yos are babies' road? As teenagers they certainly lack experience and confidence in situations but they do already have the tools to cope and adapt quickly. 
  • Having made that point, my word, what a 'Big Baby' the Hannon horse Berbice is (Picture). He got just an average rating from the sales where he appeared physically immature but with plenty of scope to develop and made above his sire's average. He ran at Goodwood this week and has developed into a taking physical specimen with good size but still nowhere near the finished article. He was also dreadfully immature and got loose in the paddock and, fortunately, did no damage before getting caught.
  • Given this background it was a surprise to see him supported as close to favourite and the vibe from the Hannon teams was that he was good. In the race he lost ground at the start which was utterly predictable given his cluelessness but got back into the race easily helped by a moderate pace. He looked the likely winner until not really getting home up the incline in the last half furlong and got mugged by a couple of 'now' rabbits (Outside Edge & Swindon Town Flyer) having their third runs. He looks one to go onto better things and the defeat by those two look a little odd by season end. He has a bit of 'Baron's Pit' about him but lacking that runners mental maturity and he's another positive mark for Acclamation.
  • In the same race Willie Muir introduced a likeable type called King's Wonder who is another bigger 2yo although with less build and narrower than Berbice. He ran well enough in the bunch sprint to the line and should be able to rate 65-70 but it will be interesting to see how he develops in comparison to Berbice given they are different types although similar larger frames.
  • Ratings :
    Other :
  • [More ranting really - Could the Green family please get over the notion that adding 'Art' to a variety of other words to form horse's names is getting anything less than tedious. Orientalist Art, Greek Art, Art Advisor, Artdeal, Stubbs Art, etc. ad nauseam. Please try to put a bit more work in. Although B2yoR doesn't approve of puns or weak jokes in horse names (even if they were funny intially they wont be when he's running for the 98th time...) but how about a few American style ones to show a bit of willing, 'Fings Art Wot They Were' or more pertinently 'Art For Art's Sake' or 'Half Arted'.
  • Or, just think up some other name, or get the Atlas out, like Godolphin. Just don't stick 'Art' front or back.]

  •   May 27th Summary : 
     
    • Last week was low-key overall with the best performances (rated 69) coming in the Pontefract Conditions race on the Friday (Burnwynd Boy) & by Group Therapy in the Windsor Conditions race 7 days ago. However, the level of those performances was not that strong and Group Therapy looked well below previous effort at Thirsk on much firmer going. This was followed by defeat for Achilles of Troy in a Listed race on Saturday at the Curragh which means that the top two rated by B2yoR so far have done nothing to improve their reputations in their next outings and instead raised question marks over the validity of the earlier marks. This leaves plenty of space at the top of the ratings for developers from maiden races and for newcomers to make an impact before Royal Ascot.
    • The coming week will hopefully produce some higher class performances in the three Listed races :-
      • Wednesday at Beverley - The Hilary Needler Trophy for fillies and a traditional 'Queen Mary' trial although only Attraction has gone on to win at Royal Ascot in recent years. The bulk of the field is usually made up of precocious fillies who are average or a little above and the best of these can win in the average years. In recent years 6f Group 1 winner Donna Blini was only second to one of the nippy 5f types and Rising Cross was hidden away in the ruck. The entries for the race contain the expected group of fillies that have already run and none from Richard Hannon in a race he rarely has a runner in. The placed horses from the Marygate Stakes are typically there and it is interesting to see the first three from what looked an ordinary Thirsk maiden in the list. The race that Starlit Sands won (from Charlotti Carlotti & Sudden Impact) looked above average standard and the winner did very well to win the pace duel and then hold off the closers. A debut win of that standard usually means a Listed Class filly at least. A large field seems assured and with it the likelihood of the draw playing some part in how the race unfolds.
      • Thursday at Sandown - 5f Listed National Stakes. Often clashes with the Hilary Needler and draws from the same set of 5f talent. A variable quality event but the 2003 race produced Royal Ascot winner Russian Valour and last year's race was won comfortably from a thin field by Excellent Art. The entires this year suggest a more competitive event but lacking the higher quality promise that Excellent Art had.
      • Saturday at Epsom - 6f Listed Woodcote Stakes.
    • The 5f fillies' maiden at Sandown on Tuesday night is also a traditional starting point for better runners from the major sourthen stables and the declarations this year include two for Hamdan Al Maktoum with first string Kashoof (owner bred and with John Dunlop) and the expensively purchased Tatbeeq (Michael Jarvis); Michael Stoute's first 2yo runner of the season (High Days with Dettori riding) plus a Sheikh Mohammed owned runner for Mark Johnston (Polite Society).
    • Monday's racing seems to heavily weighted towards likely success for experienced runners and 2yos with strong debut profiles in short supply. At Carlisle the STO Art Advisor sets  a very high standard and if he can run to the same level, or improve a little, he should win comfortably. At York he was close to the best physical type in the group and with more size to improve than the winner New Jersey, for example. His trainer's 2yos have tended to peak in their early runs and then regress but he has had his first winner with Nine Stories and Art Advisor ought to be ok here. The lack of strong opposition is also a factor. Tee runners with previous outings have a morate level of form although Dalarossie has the potentital to improve from a middling debut by trainer standards after a break.
    • The obvious necomer, in theory, to be interested in is Mark Johnston's Chatham Islands and she has other positives with her sire - Elusive Quality - who has a good record both with 2yos in Britain and on debut and also her trainer's record in this race (winning the last two versions with STO colts). However, the stable is not in good from and had only two runners last week with both beaten at odds-on. She's also a very later 5f debut by the trainer's standards and it is usually the early ones that win (if any) and he has hardly any start at 5f after May.
    • Karl Burke is just coming into form with his 2yos after a typically slow burn start and had his first winner last week. In the last two years he has produced good debut runners in the last week of May and the first in June. In 2005 he had four start in this period with a debut win for Clare Hills (at this course) and two lesser types placed. Last year there were 6 debuts with two wins and three others made the first 4. Which means that if there is to be a surprise debut showing it might come from his Cute Ass and either way we should be aware of his starters in the next 10 days or so.
    • The Leicester race has a similar shape with three solid form runners and a gap back to the best of the newcomers. A difficult choice between the leading three because Advertisement looked ready first time and is a smaller, ready 2yo type anyway (and came for a 2yo sale to a get them ready first time trainer). But, he ran well in what looked a solid race at the time and the fourth (less ready and with more scope) has boosted the form. The filly Rebel Aclaim made the slow starting Group Therapy work very hard on her debut on firm going before running less well on easier ground. Her trainer is another who has this type ready FTO but if she is back to her debut level she would take some catching. Drawnfromthepast has a reputation as being quite good but has to come back from breaking out of the stalls at Newcastle last week and cantering up the course before being caught and withdrawn. He didn't overexert himself but his attitude is a bit of a worry. this behaviour is out of character with his demeanour at Ascot FTO when he went through the preliminaries as if half asleep. Slight preference would be for Advertisement as the safest option but not with full conviction.
    • Finding the 'surprise' strong debut runner on profile is difficult and the two vague possibles are Greystoke Prince and perhaps of more interest Magnol (for the trainer's MO as much as the pedigree). 
    • The 5f Novice event at Redcar also should concern those with experience and preference is for Diademas. The performance last week at Southwell looked good as he pulled away from a moderate group in a solid time. Artdeal has to get his career back on track in cheekpieces after a run in the Lily Agnes at Chester where he hung for much of the way and then unsteerable and/or unresponsive late on. Prior to that he had shown good pace at Beverley before fading late on and this flat, straight course should allow him to show his best. 
    • Both Karl Burke (Atephobia) & John Quinn (Select Committee) have good records in Novice races and Mr Quinn has been particularly careful with his runners recently. Atephobia didn't show enough on debut to be of real interest but Select Committee appeared to be coming with a winning run at Catterick before stalling late on and in receipt of 9lbs and running for a reliable trainer he is probably the primce danger to Diademas.
    • Since we already here, let's think briefly about the 6f seller at Chepstow. All the usual trainers are involved, Bill Turner, David Evans, Stan Moore and Bryn Palling and they often carve these events up between them. They are opposed by two slightly more surprising types. One of them - Fox's Den - ran well enough on debut at Folkestone to think he might win an open race in early season. But he was very small and very fit that day and with no scope to develop. On the basis of that debut he started favourite for a Novice race, receiving weight from winners, last week but was put in his place comfortably and his trainer has done the sensible thing and look for a race he can win, now. He sets a good standard for this type of event. Sailing By has more size and quality and it is more of a surprise to see him here. His trainer can normally be trusted to know what he's doing and sticking him in a seller after one poor run says he has a 'hole' in him somewhere. But, if all the bits worked he would be a bit better than Fox's Den so one to look at if the price is value (say 6/1+).
    • The others look too moderate or non stayers (O'Casey as a main e.g.) to get involved although Ocean Transit has shown enough when the trainer wasn't in good form to suggest with minor improvement she could be the other to compete for the win. And, finally, because it's a bank holiday Monday at least watch out for signs of a punt on David Evans' Giggling Monkey because it has been known.
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