-
Last week was low-key overall with the best performances (rated 69) coming
in the Pontefract Conditions race on the Friday (Burnwynd
Boy) & by Group Therapy
in the Windsor Conditions race 7 days ago. However, the level of those
performances was not that strong and Group Therapy looked well below previous
effort at Thirsk on much firmer going. This was followed by defeat for
Achilles of Troy in a Listed
race on Saturday at the Curragh which means that the top two rated by B2yoR
so far have done nothing to improve their reputations in their next outings
and instead raised question marks over the validity of the earlier marks.
This leaves plenty of space at the top of the ratings for developers from
maiden races and for newcomers to make an impact before Royal Ascot.
-
The coming week will hopefully produce some higher class performances in
the three Listed races :-
-
Wednesday at Beverley - The Hilary Needler Trophy for fillies and a traditional
'Queen Mary' trial although only Attraction has gone on to win at Royal
Ascot in recent years. The bulk of the field is usually made up of precocious
fillies who are average or a little above and the best of these can win
in the average years. In recent years 6f Group 1 winner Donna Blini was
only second to one of the nippy 5f types and Rising Cross was hidden away
in the ruck. The entries for the race contain the expected group of fillies
that have already run and none from Richard Hannon in a race he rarely
has a runner in. The placed horses from the Marygate Stakes are typically
there and it is interesting to see the first three from what looked an
ordinary Thirsk maiden in the list. The race that Starlit
Sands won (from Charlotti Carlotti & Sudden Impact) looked above
average standard and the winner did very well to win the pace duel and
then hold off the closers. A debut win of that standard usually means a
Listed Class filly at least. A large field seems assured and with it the
likelihood of the draw playing some part in how the race unfolds.
-
Thursday at Sandown - 5f Listed National Stakes. Often clashes with the
Hilary Needler and draws from the same set of 5f talent. A variable quality
event but the 2003 race produced Royal Ascot winner Russian Valour and
last year's race was won comfortably from a thin field by Excellent Art.
The entires this year suggest a more competitive event but lacking the
higher quality promise that Excellent Art had.
-
Saturday at Epsom - 6f Listed Woodcote Stakes.
-
The 5f fillies' maiden at Sandown on Tuesday night is also a traditional
starting point for better runners from the major sourthen stables and the
declarations this year include two for Hamdan Al Maktoum with first string
Kashoof (owner bred and with John Dunlop) and the expensively purchased
Tatbeeq (Michael Jarvis); Michael Stoute's first 2yo runner of the season
(High Days with Dettori riding) plus a Sheikh Mohammed owned runner for
Mark Johnston (Polite Society).
-
Monday's racing seems to heavily weighted towards likely success for experienced
runners and 2yos with strong debut profiles in short supply. At Carlisle
the STO Art Advisor sets
a very high standard and if he can run to the same level, or improve a
little, he should win comfortably. At York he was close to the best physical
type in the group and with more size to improve than the winner New Jersey,
for example. His trainer's 2yos have tended to peak in their early runs
and then regress but he has had his first winner with Nine Stories and
Art Advisor ought to be ok here. The lack of strong opposition is also
a factor. Tee runners with previous outings have a morate level of form
although Dalarossie has the potentital to improve from a middling debut
by trainer standards after a break.
-
The obvious necomer, in theory, to be interested in is Mark Johnston's
Chatham Islands and she has
other positives with her sire - Elusive Quality - who has a good record
both with 2yos in Britain and on debut and also her trainer's record in
this race (winning the last two versions with STO colts). However, the
stable is not in good from and had only two runners last week with both
beaten at odds-on. She's also a very later 5f debut by the trainer's standards
and it is usually the early ones that win (if any) and he has hardly any
start at 5f after May.
-
Karl Burke is just coming into form with his 2yos after a typically slow
burn start and had his first winner last week. In the last two years he
has produced good debut runners in the last week of May and the first in
June. In 2005 he had four start in this period with a debut win for Clare
Hills (at this course) and two lesser types placed. Last year there were
6 debuts with two wins and three others made the first 4. Which means that
if there is to be a surprise debut showing it might come from his Cute
Ass and either way we should be aware of his starters in the next 10
days or so.
-
The Leicester race has a similar shape with three solid form runners and
a gap back to the best of the newcomers. A difficult choice between the
leading three because Advertisement
looked ready first time and is a smaller, ready 2yo type anyway (and came
for a 2yo sale to a get them ready first time trainer). But, he ran well
in what looked a solid race at the time and the fourth (less ready and
with more scope) has boosted the form. The filly Rebel Aclaim made the
slow starting Group Therapy work very hard on her debut on firm going before
running less well on easier ground. Her trainer is another who has this
type ready FTO but if she is back to her debut level she would take some
catching. Drawnfromthepast
has a reputation as being quite good but has to come back from breaking
out of the stalls at Newcastle last week and cantering up the course before
being caught and withdrawn. He didn't overexert himself but his attitude
is a bit of a worry. this behaviour is out of character with his demeanour
at Ascot FTO when he went through the preliminaries as if half asleep.
Slight preference would be for Advertisement as the safest option but not
with full conviction.
-
Finding the 'surprise' strong debut runner on profile is difficult and
the two vague possibles are Greystoke
Prince and perhaps of more interest Magnol
(for the trainer's MO as much as the pedigree).
-
The 5f Novice event at Redcar also should concern those with experience
and preference is for Diademas.
The performance last week at Southwell looked good as he pulled away from
a moderate group in a solid time. Artdeal
has to get his career back on track in cheekpieces after a run in the Lily
Agnes at Chester where he hung for much of the way and then unsteerable
and/or unresponsive late on. Prior to that he had shown good pace at Beverley
before fading late on and this flat, straight course should allow him to
show his best.
-
Both Karl Burke (Atephobia) &
John Quinn (Select Committee)
have good records in Novice races and Mr Quinn has been particularly careful
with his runners recently. Atephobia didn't show enough on debut to be
of real interest but Select Committee appeared to be coming with a winning
run at Catterick before stalling late on and in receipt of 9lbs and running
for a reliable trainer he is probably the primce danger to Diademas.
-
Since we already here, let's think briefly about the 6f seller at Chepstow.
All the usual trainers are involved, Bill Turner, David Evans, Stan Moore
and Bryn Palling and they often carve these events up between them. They
are opposed by two slightly more surprising types. One of them - Fox's
Den - ran well enough on debut at Folkestone to think he might win
an open race in early season. But he was very small and very fit that day
and with no scope to develop. On the basis of that debut he started favourite
for a Novice race, receiving weight from winners, last week but was put
in his place comfortably and his trainer has done the sensible thing and
look for a race he can win, now. He sets a good standard for this type
of event. Sailing By has more
size and quality and it is more of a surprise to see him here. His trainer
can normally be trusted to know what he's doing and sticking him in a seller
after one poor run says he has a 'hole' in him somewhere. But, if all the
bits worked he would be a bit better than Fox's Den so one to look at if
the price is value (say 6/1+).
-
The others look too moderate or non stayers (O'Casey as a main e.g.) to
get involved although Ocean Transit
has shown enough when the trainer wasn't in good form to suggest with minor
improvement she could be the other to compete for the win. And, finally,
because it's a bank holiday Monday at least watch out for signs of a punt
on David Evans' Giggling Monkey
because it has been known.
|
