British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
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Racing Preview - May 29th 
Today's Races
  • [112] : Chepstow 2:30, 5.1f Maiden (5)
  • [113] : Leicester 2:30, 5f Maiden Fillies' (4)
  • [114] : Redcar 2:10, 6f Maiden Fillies' (5)
  • [115] : Sandown 6:10, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)

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    Trainer :
  • Trainer Michael Stoute has his first 2yo runner of the season at Sandown with High Days. In a typical year he will have just a single runner in May and probably 3, at most, in June. In 2006 he had one poor runner on May 31st and no more until July. In recent seasons the early debut runners have not been of notable quality and have often looked like 'sighters' to test his 2yos. 
  • In general he does not target strong debuts and his FTO runners are moderate value at shorter SPs. This is probably because of the respect and reputation he has which means that his actual debut results get forgotten. In the last 4 years he has had 76 juveniles start at 5/1 or less FTO of which 12 have won (15.8% strike rate) for a level stakes loss close to 30 points. 
  • Oddly, in the same period you would have made a level stakes profit if you had backed all his debut runners that started at more than 5/1 and up to, and including, 10/1. This shows 13 winners out of 90 runners (14.4% strike rate) and a 10 point profit. The reasons for this would seem to be the interplay of his own reputation, the expensive and well bred horses he has (which people have unrealistic expectations of), his acceptance of development debuts and the fact that 'information' that gets out is not well based. Clearly with the variation in results with SP range the market has not got a good handle on the ability of his runners before they run.
  • The debut of High Days is more interesting because, like many 'old school' trainers, he doesn't really do 5f races. Since 2002 he has had just 11 runs (not horses) at 5f including 4 wins (3 at odds-on and one at 5/4). Only one of those runs was in 2005-6. In that period only 5 of his horses have made a debut at 5f and none have won although three have placed. More interestingly, four of the five were at least useful winners and three won two races as 2yos (the other is the expensive nutcase Sion Hill who is a maiden to this day). Only two of the four actually won at 5f and one of those later won at 6f.
  • Also because of his slower start with 2yos he doesn't get many debut winners with his early runners. He has only had one debut winner before June 28th in the last five years and that was by the group class Imperial Stride in 2003. That win was his first runner of the season and got everyone excited and his next three debuts were beaten at odds-on. The FTO successes come along through the second half of the year with the higher class runners and occasionally helped by duff race quality.
  • Put all of that together what should we make of High Days ridden by Dettori? If she's starting this early at 5f then she ought to be a useful winner but would need to be 'Russian Rhythm' to be successful FTO. Her pedigree says more 6f+ as well so she would appear to be a development debut and most probably for a solid winner (rather than an average, or, worse type).
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      May 28th Summary : 
     
    • Four races of which three are for maiden fillies and two over 5f in the southern part of Britain. The Sandown race has a good recent history with three winners of the 6f Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot having run in it in recent years. In 2002 the later Group 2 winner Never A Doubt had to overcome Speed Cop (later listed winner), Duty Paid (Albany victress) & Gallivant (one of the rare 5f debuts for Mr Stoute covered above). In 2004 Albany Stakes & Cherry Hinton winner Jewel In The Sand won on debut and in 2005 La Chunga (Albany winner) was beaten as favourite FTO). This year's field looks a solid group with good potential so long as the last two days of rain do not deplete the field.
    • Presto Levanter was found short of Listed Class last time after running with promise in a Salisbury Conditions event which was actually quite moderate form. She probably needs to improve to hold off the best of the newcomers. Iamagrey has been declared for a seller in the past but looked a little better quality than that on her debut. However, those behind her that day have mustered a single claimer win since so she should be some way short of winning here. Diamond Soles is another who didn't look one to follow at Goodwood and small and limited.
    • So the choice is between Presto Levanter and whoever you think will do best of the newcomers. The ground and the effect of that on the draw will make the choice more difficult and we saw on Monday (with the non-runners at Leicester and unusual debut win for Cumani's Mahusay) how that can bring odd results. High Days is covered above and unlikely to be value and one to be against and let her beat you if she is 'Russian Rhythm'. Mark Johnston is another trainer who has reached the normal end period of his 5f debuts and he hasn't got going with his 2yos (including those for Sheikh Mohammed). His Polite Society also has a 6f+ pedigree and would need to pretty high class to win which seems unlikely.
    • Owner Hamdan Al Maktoum has had ten 2yo runners to date with three debut wins (all with Barry Hills) and two seconds and a level stakes profit of close to 8 points at SP. This type of return is not unusual and his debut runners across a range of trainers show reasonable profits. A notable trainer in this context is John Dunlop and a 'system' which involved backing the first (say) 10 debuts he has for Hamdan each year would do better in the medium term than endless hours of form study. Mr Dunlop has Kashoof running in this race and she is the first foal of the useful Khulood who won on debut for the same trainer (and owner, of course) on the 26th July in 2002 at 5/1. She appears to be the owner's first string (over Tatbeeq) with Richard Hills riding.
    • So, there we are then, Kashoof it is? Well, yes if you are following the system but a few words of caution. Mr Dunlop, like Stoute, is an old-schooler who doesn't go much on the 5f stuff. He's only had four debuts over 5f in the last 5 years and only one has placed. Khulood was best at 7f and Kashoof's sire Green Desert has a much better record over 6-7f and after mid season. Also, Mr Dunlop has made an earlier start than normal this year and his first four debuts have all been notably inexperienced including Alwaabel at Newmarket for the owner (although he was fit enough and one to follow on make-up). So, she's probably pretty good although better at 6f and it would be a bit of a surprise to see her win here.
    • Although second string Tatbeeq runs for Michael Jarvis who, as discussed yesterday, is much more likely to get debut winners and no problem at this time of the year over 5f. She looked a ready 2yo at the sales although a little small and 275,000 guineas seemed a bit steep. If you swapped the jockeys around she would make great appeal. However, being 'second string', in some form often leads to value in the market because people overplay the significance and assume the 'second' is much worse. On the sales evidence and the early debut for Mr Jarvis Tatbeeq ought to be ok and for all we know is at least as good as Kashoof over 5f now. So, depending how the market goes she may well be a very good each-way bet.
    • Of the others Chelsea Girl runs for a trainer who now gets regular strong debuts and wins (although usually from mid June) now that the quality of 2yo he has had improved. She appeals most of the longer shots. Mizooka shouldn't be here on her stoutish, development pedigree but is of interest for how she can develop. But, let's hope that we get some useful fillies to follow after what feels like a stop-go start to the year and some real surprise wins. [After all that we'll probably have to sit through something like Eye Catching romping home at 50s]
    • The other 5f fillies' race at Leicester has also produced some better quality including two Queen Mary placers (Catstar & Sharplaw Star) in recent seasons. This year's event has an interesting set-up so long as the soft ground doesn't cause too much disruption. Alexander Nepotism and Just A Dancer have shown a similar level of form in being runner-up on firmish going at Bath although both are just average, earlyish types on profile and lacking strong development profiles. Just A Dancer has also had a long absence since missing her April 23rd appointment and it's possible her sire will prove to have a better record on firmer surfaces. Which means Alexander Nepotism is the safer option of the pair but doesn't seem likely to be a strong finisher up the hill and backing her would mean watching the final furlong through your fingers. 
    • What about the new ones? William Haggas has his first runner of the season and he doesn't target 2yo racing that strongly and has relatively few runs in the year but normally a good strike rate. The early debuts are usually competitive 2yos of various levels of ability from seller types through to Group winners like Majestic Missile & Enticing. He won this this race in 2003 with Sharplaw Star (as well backed 7/4f) before taking her to Royal Ascot. His Rocking is a half sister to Group 2 5f 2yo Superstar Leo but the dam has produced more limited types of late. If she is any good the market (on this occasion, not in general) should be informative.
    • We are also into a period when Kevin Ryan has introduced some of his best 2yos in the last two years and with debut wins for the better ones. He appears to have taken over the training of the Holdcroft 2yos (who own Bearstone Stud, Mind Games, Reel Buddy, etc) from Tim Easterby. That trainer had the original Queen Mary success with Romantic Destiny's half sister Romantic Myth. Another half sister also won a Queen Mary for Brian Meehan after being purchased as a yearling. The Holdcroft's kept Romantic Destiny at the sales presumably because they thought she was worth more than 100,000 guineas back at their stud producing yearlings they could sell to the Maktoums for silly money (as they managed with Wedaad, another less talented sibling). Anyway, Mr Ryan knows he has to get the best out of her and make her record look good which would mean looking to wins this before going to Ascot. She makes a lot of appeal on profile against those with firm ground form already.
    • At Redcar the race looks to have a long tail of low quality and the race between Sinead Of Aglish, Montiboli and Planet Queen. Montiboli didn't achieve much on debut in a moderate 6f race which was only just faster than the seller on the same card. He seems one to oppose and although Sinead Of Aglish isn't improving she has a good level of form and has been going forward at the end of each of her 5f races and ought to see out the 6f here well enough. Karl Burke had a solid debut yesterday with filly Cute Ass in a period when he often brings out some competitive 2yos. Planet Queen looked up to average standard at the sales and with scope to develop although would need to be better than that to win off a normal debut preparation. 
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