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Four races of which three are for maiden fillies and two over 5f in the
southern part of Britain. The Sandown race has a good recent history with
three winners of the 6f Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot having run in it in
recent years. In 2002 the later Group 2 winner Never A Doubt had to overcome
Speed Cop (later listed winner), Duty Paid (Albany victress) & Gallivant
(one of the rare 5f debuts for Mr Stoute covered above). In 2004 Albany
Stakes & Cherry Hinton winner Jewel In The Sand won on debut and in
2005 La Chunga (Albany winner) was beaten as favourite FTO). This year's
field looks a solid group with good potential so long as the last two days
of rain do not deplete the field.
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Presto Levanter was found
short of Listed Class last time after running with promise in a Salisbury
Conditions event which was actually quite moderate form. She probably needs
to improve to hold off the best of the newcomers. Iamagrey
has been declared for a seller in the past but looked a little better quality
than that on her debut. However, those behind her that day have mustered
a single claimer win since so she should be some way short of winning here.
Diamond Soles is another who
didn't look one to follow at Goodwood and small and limited.
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So the choice is between Presto Levanter and whoever you think will do
best of the newcomers. The ground and the effect of that on the draw will
make the choice more difficult and we saw on Monday (with the non-runners
at Leicester and unusual debut win for Cumani's Mahusay) how that can bring
odd results. High Days is covered above and unlikely to be value and one
to be against and let her beat you if she is 'Russian Rhythm'. Mark Johnston
is another trainer who has reached the normal end period of his 5f debuts
and he hasn't got going with his 2yos (including those for Sheikh Mohammed).
His Polite Society also has
a 6f+ pedigree and would need to pretty high class to win which seems unlikely.
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Owner Hamdan Al Maktoum has had ten 2yo runners to date with three debut
wins (all with Barry Hills) and two seconds and a level stakes profit of
close to 8 points at SP. This type of return is not unusual and his debut
runners across a range of trainers show reasonable profits. A notable trainer
in this context is John Dunlop and a 'system' which involved backing the
first (say) 10 debuts he has for Hamdan each year would do better in the
medium term than endless hours of form study. Mr Dunlop has Kashoof
running in this race and she is the first foal of the useful Khulood who
won on debut for the same trainer (and owner, of course) on the 26th July
in 2002 at 5/1. She appears to be the owner's first string (over Tatbeeq)
with Richard Hills riding.
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So, there we are then, Kashoof it is? Well, yes if you are following the
system but a few words of caution. Mr Dunlop, like Stoute, is an old-schooler
who doesn't go much on the 5f stuff. He's only had four debuts over 5f
in the last 5 years and only one has placed. Khulood was best at 7f and
Kashoof's sire Green Desert has a much better record over 6-7f and after
mid season. Also, Mr Dunlop has made an earlier start than normal this
year and his first four debuts have all been notably inexperienced including
Alwaabel at Newmarket for the owner
(although he was fit enough and one to follow on make-up). So, she's probably
pretty good although better at 6f and it would be a bit of a surprise to
see her win here.
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Although second string Tatbeeq runs for Michael Jarvis who, as discussed
yesterday, is much more likely to get debut winners and no problem at this
time of the year over 5f. She looked a ready 2yo at the sales although
a little small and 275,000 guineas seemed a bit steep. If you swapped the
jockeys around she would make great appeal. However, being 'second string',
in some form often leads to value in the market because people overplay
the significance and assume the 'second' is much worse. On the sales evidence
and the early debut for Mr Jarvis Tatbeeq ought to be ok and for all we
know is at least as good as Kashoof over 5f now. So, depending how the
market goes she may well be a very good each-way bet.
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Of the others Chelsea Girl runs
for a trainer who now gets regular strong debuts and wins (although usually
from mid June) now that the quality of 2yo he has had improved. She appeals
most of the longer shots. Mizooka
shouldn't be here on her stoutish, development pedigree but is of interest
for how she can develop. But, let's hope that we get some useful fillies
to follow after what feels like a stop-go start to the year and some real
surprise wins. [After all that we'll probably have to sit through something
like Eye Catching romping home
at 50s]
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The other 5f fillies' race at Leicester has also produced some better quality
including two Queen Mary placers (Catstar & Sharplaw Star) in recent
seasons. This year's event has an interesting set-up so long as the soft
ground doesn't cause too much disruption. Alexander
Nepotism and Just A Dancer
have shown a similar level of form in being runner-up on firmish going
at Bath although both are just average, earlyish types on profile and lacking
strong development profiles. Just A Dancer has also had a long absence
since missing her April 23rd appointment and it's possible her sire will
prove to have a better record on firmer surfaces. Which means Alexander
Nepotism is the safer option of the pair but doesn't seem likely to be
a strong finisher up the hill and backing her would mean watching the final
furlong through your fingers.
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What about the new ones? William Haggas has his first runner of the season
and he doesn't target 2yo racing that strongly and has relatively few runs
in the year but normally a good strike rate. The early debuts are usually
competitive 2yos of various levels of ability from seller types through
to Group winners like Majestic Missile & Enticing. He won this this
race in 2003 with Sharplaw Star (as well backed 7/4f) before taking her
to Royal Ascot. His Rocking is a
half sister to Group 2 5f 2yo Superstar Leo but the dam has produced more
limited types of late. If she is any good the market (on this occasion,
not in general) should be informative.
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We are also into a period when Kevin Ryan has introduced some of his best
2yos in the last two years and with debut wins for the better ones. He
appears to have taken over the training of the Holdcroft 2yos (who own
Bearstone Stud, Mind Games, Reel Buddy, etc) from Tim Easterby. That trainer
had the original Queen Mary success with Romantic
Destiny's half sister Romantic Myth. Another half sister also won a
Queen Mary for Brian Meehan after being purchased as a yearling. The Holdcroft's
kept Romantic Destiny at the sales presumably because they thought she
was worth more than 100,000 guineas back at their stud producing yearlings
they could sell to the Maktoums for silly money (as they managed with Wedaad,
another less talented sibling). Anyway, Mr Ryan knows he has to get the
best out of her and make her record look good which would mean looking
to wins this before going to Ascot. She makes a lot of appeal on profile
against those with firm ground form already.
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At Redcar the race looks to have a long tail of low quality and the race
between Sinead Of Aglish,
Montiboli and Planet
Queen. Montiboli didn't achieve much on debut in a moderate 6f race
which was only just faster than the seller on the same card. He seems one
to oppose and although Sinead Of Aglish isn't improving she has a good
level of form and has been going forward at the end of each of her 5f races
and ought to see out the 6f here well enough. Karl Burke had a solid debut
yesterday with filly Cute Ass in a period when he often brings out some
competitive 2yos. Planet Queen looked up to average standard at the sales
and with scope to develop although would need to be better than that to
win off a normal debut preparation.
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