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The 'Hilary Needler' at Beverley has developed over 25 years or so to be
a legitimate trial for the 'Queen Mary' at Royal Ascot and has been recently
raised to Listed level. The last four winners have all run in the Ascot
race with these results :-
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2003 = Attraction won as favourite
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2004 = Miss Meggy 9th at 10/1
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2005 = Clare Hills 4th at 11/2
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2006 = Roxan 11th at 7/4 in a weak renewal before redeeming herself with
a good run in the 'Firth Of Clyde' at Ayr later.
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Attraction romped clear of an ordinary field in her success and Miss Meggy
won a messy race as 20/1 second string from Stall 1. Clare Hills was a
classic precocious speedster who was a s good as she was ever going to
be by May as a 2yo and beat a later Group 1 winner (Donna Blini). However,
although the best of the runners are usually useful or better the bulk
of the field will be average or worse and in some years the winner is really
only good Nursery class (around 85 official ratings). Last year's race
was typical in this regard with Roxan beating some ordinary fillies on
her debut. If you look at the - Result
- from 2006 you'll see the only subsquent winners were Just Joey (2nd and
won a nursery off 85), Hucking Hot (3rd as a maiden an won an ordinary
auction event), My Lovely Lesley (expensive debut runner for Meehan and
the Gold Group won a maiden) and Onenightinlisbon (claimer and a nursery).
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This year's version looks very similar to last year with a set of cheaper,
ready fillies opposed by an expensive debut runner from Kevin Ryan (Coachhouse
Lady). Others in the field are straight from central casting as well
with a maiden from John Best with early season placed form along with the
best filly Tim Easterby has. Here is the 'Class Ladder' for the race and
try comparing it to last year's result (a bit more 70+ possibles and perhaps
less 65 midfielders).
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Which means that Coachhouse Lady has an awful lot going for her. She cost
more than the others put together and Cristal Clear as the second most
expensive (37,000 guineas), cost something like 130,000 less than the US
bred filly. She receives 3lbs from the others for a debut outing and has
the best draw in 13 next to the far rail. Her trainer won the same race
last year with the same type of filly and has presumably chosen her for
this from a range of solid types he has in his stable given the increased
support he now has. What could go wrong?
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Well, yes, she has excellent credentials but there are a few niggles and
she's likely to end up a short price for a newcomer. She has a bit more
depth in the field opposing her with the three fillies rated above 70 as
well. Her trainer came into last year's race with 15 juvenile winners already
and a rash of FTO successes in May. This year he has had only had four
and no debut wins recently and a couple of supported runners in the 3rd-4th
region last week. The market should tell us how good she is but if she's
short then unlikely to be value and and if drifting then a sign she might
not be up to Roxan's ability.
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Cristal Clear ran a good race in the Marygate Stakes at York and came with
what looked to be a winning run before stalling late on. The cheekpieces
have been added so perhaps she lost concentration rather than fading. She
has enough early pace to get a reasonable position from box 6 and should
run well.
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The Thirsk 5f race which Starlit Sands won looked a good one visually with
the first three fillies (all FTO) coming clear and finishing strongly with
some runners with form having been broken by the pace and fading well back.
Charlotti Carlotti & Sudden Impact tracked the pace in 4th & 5th
at halfway around 3 lengths and more off the pace. When the race quickened
it was Sudden Impact who made the eyecatching forward move to challenge
coming to the final furlong and went past the other filly. She stalled
late on and having been a little outpaced Charlotti Carlotti finished better
to take second. Given their different draws and assuming they both drop
in again it seems likely that Sudden Impact will be making the first move
and the other closing later.
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The others lack the overall class on profile to win although the best will
probably be Rose Siog who is well drawn and came with some reputation on
her winning debut and well supported. Her trainer has only had one recent
runner in the race with Tagula Sunrise placing in an ordinary event in
2004. The draw at Beverley often plays a part in races and the recent editions
of this race have seen :-
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2002 = Ordinary race (80s raters) and stall 12 won from 11
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2003 = Attraction won from 8 of 12 but would have been successful from
any stall. She broke the race up with the pace she set.
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2004 = Messy race with ordinary fillies who went too fast and stall 1 won
from 10 and 5 with a clsoing run in the centre of the course.
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2005 = Rain affected and two groups raced either side until winner Clare
Hills cut across from stall 3 side to win from 4 and 8.
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2006 = Roxan won from stall 8 with 12, 10, 3 & 1 close up. She got
3 lengths behind at halfway ad won by switching to centre track.
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If you tried to summarise that you'd say that the rail is an advantage
in evenly matched races, on better going so long as it isn't too strong.
A pace duel can allow closers to finish from anywhere but plain class will
allow the better fillies (if they are in the race) to get to the front
somehow.Out of interest B2yoR looked at 35 recent 5f juvenile races
at the track to see where the winners where at halfway. All races had 6
runners or more with these outcomes :-
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10 were leading at halfway
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4 were in second place
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6 were in third place
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5 were in fourth place
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5 were in 'Midfield' 5th+
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5 were behind midfield.
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Which means that 20 of the 35 (57%) were won by horses in the first three
at halfway which shows how early pace can be an advantage even on this
stiff track. The ability to get over towards the rail and to stay close
enough to the pace is a real advantage. If you can't do that you are relying
on the leaders stalling and being able to find a way through the faders
to win which isn't always pretty. You can bypass all of this if you are
'Attraction' or even 'Roxan' opposed by middling handicappers. [This year
the four 5f races have been won by one frontrunner, 2 in a close up third
at halfway and one who came from a midfield 6th with a clear run up the
rail as the pacemakers went midtrack.]
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To summarise all that Coachhouse Lady is unlikely to be value and the trainer's
form a bit of a niggle. A case can be made for any of the next three in
the ratings although the draws could have been better they probably have
enough pace to lie up.
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The Brighton race looks stronger than a typical event for the course.
Traditionally the track is used for lesser types that trainers are struggling
to get a win with and a drop to a 'lesser course' is one card they have
to play. Mick Channon's Shatter
Resistant is pretty typical having been 28/1 on debut (not a good sign
for the trainer) but a decent third and has followed up with two more reasnable
efforts (rating around 50) while being picked off by better types. He sets
a middling, but reliable standard, and is opposed by a mixture of runners
either looking for a soft race and/or something they can win now.
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Mark Prescott is 3-14 with runners here since 2002 with the winners 5/4
or less. Prunes is his first STO
runner and didn't achieve much in a moderate race on debut and makes no
appeal. Hughie Morrison won this race last year with a 50/1 runner (who
was above average) who had show nothing on debut. He tries the same trick
with Golden Penny who is the
the first test (along with Dubai Dynamo of the strength of the Newbury
maiden he made his start in). He should improve but is unlikely to be another
Johannesburg Jack. Neville Callaghan is chairmen of the 'Send them to Brighton
to break their Maiden' club with 13 wins from 33 runs in the last 5 years.
The majority have been at shorter prices after showing at least some form.
Sirjoshua Reynolds showed
his first signs of life in the final furlong of his last race for an apprentice
(another aid for the duffers) but not enough to win this.
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Which means if we take Shatter Resistant as the solid benchmark the two
with more potential are Romany Princess & New Colossus. The first has
got a place in a Listed race on her CV without having ever run a competent
race or really getting involved in one. But she has always had more potential
and as her trainer showed with Presto Levanter's win yesterday (with a
similar background) he will get them in the right races if the ability
is there. The interesting one is New Colossus who was favourite on debut
for an astute trainer and suggested he was a better type. He took part
in a 5-way race for the lead which saw all five fade and some limited types
get through fro the 2nd-4th places. He did third worst of those 5 that
duelled which isn't a good sign but after a break and with his trainer
having a solid record at the track (including some better ones) he may
well be the biggest improver.
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