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Well, this is proving to be a testing season and yesterday's results proved
what the second law of thermodynamics tells us - that there are 'so many
ways to lose'. The soft ground has been a one factor in the recent surprises
and Sirjoushua Reynolds win seemd to owe at least something to his jockey
steering the more usual shorter path to the finish. Mr Callaghan gets more
2yo winners than anyone at Brighton so it was predictable in that way but
a clear win wa spuching things.
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At Beverley we saw the first and second clear from a group of mainly faders
in centre to far side. These two ran the long way up the stands' rail (which
is on the outside of a real right hand bend on the 5f course) and came
from draws 1 and 2 which is pretty unusual at the course. The course also
slopes downwards across to those low drawn stalls so as well as running
further you run up more of a hill. Which is why the high stalls are often
the place to be and low drawn runners often end up as 'non runners' for
bogus reasons.
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However, in 2002 the clerk of the course experimented with putting the
stalls on the stands' side and the 2yo race was won clearly from stall
1 by a filly who had shown nothing previously and nothing after. The reason
put forward then was that there was a compacted path next to the stands'
rail where people walked and they drove machinery down. That was a short
lived experiment and they went straight back to having the usual draw bias
we all knew about. Anyway, Loch Jipp was a solid winner but would you really
expect her to do the same on firm ground at Ascot in the Queen Mary?
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Picking through the debris to find some usable thoughts the other reason
for the odd results seems to be the lack of strength in the form shown
so far. In the last two weeks we have seen Group Therapy, Achilles Of Troy
and now Cristal Clear do little for the established 'form'. The other conditions
races have been won by Fred's Lad (Owner bred by an unfashionable sire)
and Burnwynd Boy (cost 3,000 guineas). They are both admirable early season
2yos but don't seem likely to be around at Group class later.
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The lack of strength in early season form has probably also been shown
up by the number of debut winners in May. There has been 38% debut winners
compared to 30% last year and higher than any May for the last 5 years.
The last few days have seen from odd sources such as Luca Cumani and Andrew
Balding to make the point further. At Southwell on Wednesday the 'Brocklesby
Second' Fol Hollow demonstrated how his lack of size and scope to improve
limits the early types when beaten over 6f by runners with more scope and
later debuts. The Brocklesby has been another disappointment following
2006 when it produced no later winners and only the winner Mister Hardy
has registered another win from this year's large field.
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Thursday's racing brings the fourth 5f Listed race of the season at Sandown
and a solid field without looking to have an Excellent Art or Russian Valour.
The ratings are below.
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Mick Channon has used this race for the best of the horses he is involved
with the breeding of and Carleton is by his stallion Hunting Lion (who
he trained and also that one's sire with Piccolo). Carleton made his debut
in a Novice against runner swith solid form but stood out as the best type
although looking mentally immature. Given that lack of readiness he did
well to make all although in a middling time at best. He looked to have
more scope than Major Eazy and New Jersey although less of an obvious 5f
type. On this stiffer track on easier ground he ought to have enough pace.
The form of New Jersey's win on his first go on easier ground at York has
been boosted by the wins of the second and third later and he is the obvious
danger and probable favourite.
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At Ayr Howard Johnson seems to have found a good opportunity for Montaquila
to provide his with his third STO winner (from a good debut) following
the successes of Nine Stories and Art Advisor. He would have been closer
in that York race but for having to switch and wait for a gap as he made
progress and the runs of the 6th and 7th have shown it to be a solid race.
Mark Johnston has only had 2 juvenile wins so far and a number of recent
runners have faded notably. Atabaas' Pride made a good debut in a 5f race
with a strong pace where the leaders faded notably. Having got behind that
made his effort late in the race to stay on into fourth look even more
strong than it was. If the stable were in better form he would be of interest
but not against such a strong opponent. It is probably worth waiting for
signs of better form for the stable.
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