-
Not a preview of today's Brighton race but some thoughts on the last week's
racing. The Brighton race saw Alizadora
prove she was a lucky debut winner aided by racing on the stands' side
at Nottingham. She completed a bad week for short priced favourites with
5 of 7 odds-on chances beaten during the week. Two of those beaten favourites
had placed in the same 6f maiden at the York Dante meeting. Montaquila
was beaten as 2/5f at Ayr and looking at the first furlong anyone backing
him could have seen they were in trouble. Firstly he didn't look comfortable
on the ground (or track) and raced wide of the stands' rail. At Ayr you
will regularly see the horses racing off the rail underperforming and,
conversely, apparently strong finishes along the rail in the last furlong
or so. The clincher was that, unlike at York, he didn't look a bigger type
in context of the other runners.
-
The race was won by Bigfanofthat
and a debut win for Karl Burke which is usually the sign of a better type.
In the period May 30th to June 3rd last year he had two debut winners (Aahayson
& Holdin Foldin) and one very strong second (Vale Of Belvoir). They
won eight races between them and on the evidence of his debut Bigfanofthat
is a horse we should be taking seriously.
-
The defeat of Montaquila raised doubts over the strength of the form of
the York maiden and the 3rd from the race - Nawaaff
- ran at Goodwood the next day and, in the absence of strong vibes for
the newcomers, ended up as 4/6f. Having seen him in the preliminaries he
confirmed that the quality of the York race needed a second thought. If
you look at this - Picture
- you'll see an in proportion, mentally mature and neat enough type. But,
he's below average size and an ordinary build. He also has a slightly odd
rangy walk (which shows in the picture with the separation of the hindlegs).
Which contributed to a view of him as an ordinary maiden type and his movement
a likely limitation against better types. It wasn't a great group of physical
specimens for that race but both Bob's Surprise & Barbarossa (from
a non FTO trainer) were better and 4/6 the wrong price although he ought
to have been favourite. Anyway, he got beaten in a race run at below average
pace and below his York form.
-
If you look at the - result -
from that York event you will see that the placed horses came from 13th,
8th & 10th places at halfway. The pace for the race was too strong
and the front half of the race broke up and faded back. As they faded they
made the 'finishes' of the plugging on runners look better. The winner
Feared In Flight came from furthest back and won clearly so probably wasn't
that flattered. But Montaquila and Nawaaff have proved what can happen
when horses that were just plugging on through faders end up with a '2'
or '3' against their name from an 'important' maiden.
-
The result is interesting because the defeats of the placed horses followed
the good runs by the sixth (Captain
Gerrard 2nd in conditions event at Beverley) & 7th (Captain
Dunne's clear win in a Haydock auction race). Captain Gerrard pressed
the leader on his debut and paid for his efforts and dropped back to 5f
next time which explains his improvement. Captain Dunne runs for Tim Easterby
who is notable for not targeting strong debuts (aside from the early season
win with his best filly each year) and was close enough to the pace not
to plug on. Of the others in that race the 5th The
Last Bottle had a minor excuse with a slow start but probably one to
be wary of at a shorter price. The fourth home was Mission
Impossible who was favourite but probably raced too close to the pace
and had been strongly supportd (40/1 to 14/1) on debut. His trainer has
a solid group of 2yos this year and he probably ran better at York than
the final result suggests.
-
If you want another example of how strong paces can produce peculiar results
then here's one from last year - Result.
We are back at Ayr and if we ignore the 7th who was poor and never figured
then the first six finished in an upside down position. The first three
were between 33/1 to 66/1 and never won another race between them in the
rest of the season. The fourth to sixth were between 4/5f to 8/1 and all
were later winners including a Listed race and another was fourth in the
Listed Redcar Trophy. If you look at that race in normal form terms, lengths
beaten by etc., it is inexplicable. If you had spent the season backing
Baltimore Jack or Waiheke Island on the basis they were better than the
other three then you would have been pretty annoyed. Something must have
gone on. The answer in this case lies in the last column and the 'Lo3'
acronym which stands for 'Line of 3 pace duel' which means the big players
got hooked up in a three way battle and the only achievement was to reduce
all of them to 'walkers' that the others could run through having been
well back at halfway.
-
The week's Listed Races produced mixed outcomes in quality terms
with the 6f Woodcote Stake results the best. Declaration
Of War had made a very likeable debut when pulling away from the rest
of the field with the experienced Silver Guest and comfortably beat that
rival when he realised what he was being asked to do. His price went from
100/30 favourite to 9/2 at Epsom yesterday in the face of support for the
Irish raider Irish Jig. He was his trainer's first runner at above maiden
level prior to 'Royal Ascot' since his return to Britain in 2004. His 2yos
seem more forward in 2006 and probably helped by having a good early set.
The fact he ran at Epsom suggests that Declaration Of War is perhaps below
Winker Watson's standard and their trainer is one who can be trusted to
know the ability of his 2yos. He wasn't that hard pressed to win and staying
on strongly and can improve past his current 76 rating and would be worth
a run in the Coventry Stakes.
-
The result of the Woodcote makes
good sense with the horses with some scope to improve from their debuts
(Declaration Of War & Bespoke
Boy) winning from the best of the early season runners (Mount
Pleasure) with a horse with the size and scope to improve in fourth
(Berbice who was noted here last
week for his potential). There was a gap back to the rest in 5th+ and they
look to be useful precocious types for the main part that we have seen
the best of. If any of them are going to make a real mark At Ascot it should
be amongst the first 4.
-
The two 5f Listed races were less satisfactory and the level of performances
below the 70 level and didn't advance our knowledge greatly. The Hilary
Needler at Beverley produced a surprise result with the two fillies
that ran up (probably on the compacted path) the stands' rail finishing
well clear. Along with the group that raced in the centre not really 'finishing'
the race off and fading the final level of form was not that strong. The
B2yoR view is that while Loch Jipp
shouldn't be underestimated she is likely to be beaten by more speedy fillies
given a non-easy ground Queen Mary. In that set-up some of the beaten runners
from the Beverley race are likely to finish in from of her.
-
The 5f National Stakes at Sandown
was run on easier ground and in an ordinary time. Again the pace that the
colts New Jersey, Carleton
& Major Eazy set seemed too
strong and they faded back in the final furlong while the fillies Sweepstake
and Lady Avenger stayed on past them. As noted above the fact they were
passing stalled runners made them look better than the actual quality of
their performance. We haven't seen Sweepstake really pressed yet because
she raced in a group of 2 on debut and raced off the pace here. She can
presumably improve further but needs to to beat the best of the fillies
seen so far in the Queen Mary. The top of the list is now shared by Janina
and Starlit Sands. The first has won both her races and Loch Jipp was well
behind her on a fast, flat course at York. She hasn't had to be hard pressed
to win either race and has further improvement.
-
The second of those put up the best effort by a filly this week when taking
a Catterick Novice under a penalty. She was entered for the Hilary Needler
(where both of the placed horses from her good debut ran) but presumably
her trainer couldn't give up his 'win all the races you can' mind-set.
If she had won a Listed race second up then the Novice success would have
been unlikely. So the pattern has to be maiden-novice-Listed then on to
better races. Anyway, she won comfortably at Catterick despite the weight
concession and again responded to a challenge and was going away again
at the finish. She can also rate higher and it would have been really interesting
to have seen her at Beverley. But, I guess the shadow of Spindrifter, et
al, mean Mr Prescott can't change his method. And, if you end up winning
more races, why should he?
-
Other perfomance's to note this week came from Art
Advisor, Wigram's Turn,
Gaspar
Van Wittel. The first had run well at York on debut and won his maiden
well at Carlisle in a week when debut wins rather than converting promise
have been more prominent. He probably has one more good run to give before
he goes off form by his trainer's typical methods but can rate into the
70s at least. The other two both made taking debuts but, again, both were
running away from stalled runners who had gone hard. The pair of them were
driven along behind midfield at halfway so missed the pace and then looked
good pulling away late on. But, neither put up a really strong performance
so it makes them difficult to judge. But, you wouldn't want to be taking
shorter prices against better opposition.
-
To finish, let's consider the fillies'
maiden on Tuesday at Sandown. This was won by Presto
Levanter who is in the same trainer-owner combination as Sweepstake
so we can presume she's less good. The previous paragraphs speak to the
inability of many jockeys, and certainly when faced with other people on
horses around them on tracks of different configurations, to judge what
would be a reasonable pace to go. B2yoR isn't a particular fan of Richard
Hughes but one thing he often does well is judge a pace. He can often be
seen letting a horse drop back behind a contested lead for example. In
this race he did a version of this which was get out brightly and move
over to the rail and then slow the race up. He was allowed to settle the
pace so much that Mizooka who had
bungled the start by 8 lengths and more was on the back of the bunched
pack before they had gone much more than a furlong.
-
Mr Hughes then made his effort from the favoured position next to the rail
coming to the final furlong and won comfortably. The actual level of performance
was moderate and the fillies behind in a heap, across the track, and with
converted seller entree Iamagrey
in third from a wide draw. A race to be very wary of taking literally .
|
