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Three interesting races on Monday above seller level and with the results
in the season so far quite easy to get jumpy about the chances of those
with form against the newcomers. But, two races already run get a further
test today and should advance our knowledge. At Windsor the Novice race
is a tricky puzzle. Three of them ran in the same, slowly run, 5f maiden
at Ascot - Result. The first
six home had all been less than two lengths off the leader at halfway in
a bunched group. The only real changes in position saw the moderate leader
fade, the small colt who had been second fade back to 7th and Swiss Franc
make the most progress to third after having to switch to find a run. He
was the fittest and quite mentally ready at Ascot - his trainer Mr Elsworth
has a 'leave a bit to work on' reputation that isn't merited with 2yos.
If his juveniles have ability it will show well up on debut.
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Swiss Franc along with the 4th and 6th have all won in, probably, average
races since. The second - Mark Johnston's Fitzroy Crossing - has failed
since when upped to 6f on soft ground so he has some excuse although he's
probably an indicator that in general a number of his trainer's 2yos are
not really seeing their races out currently. But, the Swiss Franc carries
a penalty for his Newmarket win although looked to have improved in physical
condition there. In a tight-knit race he sets a strong standard. However,
in the Ascot preliminaries Paveroc looked a better physical type with a
stronger build. He made a forward move to second at Ascot when the late
race sprint started before fading back. After a 'flat spot' through May
his trainer Stan Moore has started to run his better 2yos again and last
week saw good placings for Iamagrey, Littlemisssunhine & Dubai Dynamo
(along with a seller win for Pearo). Time to see if Paveroc has come on
enough physically to beat the race sharp Swiss Franc.
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The other runner from Ascot is Hold That Call for Richard Hannon whose
STO runners always need to be considered because they really do often 'improve
a lot from debut'. If you were told that Mr Hannon likes his 2yos with
plenty of 'meat on them' if he can afford to buy them then Hold That Call
would have clearly caught his eye at the sales. At Ascot - picture
- he looked unready to really compete (note the belly) and although strongly
built not that neatly put together - a 'build' purchase. He missed the
break at Ascot but got back onto the group easily and then got a little
outpaced as the sprint started and got a little hampered. He will no doubt
have tightened up and improved with the break but preference would still
be for the two that finished in front of him today.
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The Windsor race is interesting because it has much more depth than that.
Stage Acclaim had all the Millman vibes of being his best 2yo at this stage
before his win at Salisbury. He had to extricate himself for a late run
there in a bunched finish. He doesn't appeal under a penalty in this group.
Hatta Fort is the second test for the recent 5f maiden at Leicester won
by 50/1 filly Only In Jest. The colts who closed on her late in the race
included a number with positive reputations and four of next five home
(excluding Millman's Brassini who was on his 3rd outing) ought to be winners
in due course if the vibes are to be believed. The first runner from that
race is Mazzanti at Carlisle earlier in the day which will be some indicator
of the strength of that form. Hatta Fort was the best type in that group
at Leicester (in a set of small framed but well built & compact 5f
types) but was wound up mentally before the race and didn't really get
involved. Another likely improver but may be less of a real 5f prospect
than some in the field.
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Which leaves In Uniform (only penalised 2lbs) as the other main contender
along with Paveroc. He made a well above average trainer debut at Bath
when coming through late to run past Alexander nepotism (a lightly made
filly who doesn't appeal, even getting weight, from this group of colts.
His trainer has said that he was always mentally mature so it is possible
he will improve less than normal to STO for his trainer and also switches
to easier going. The expensive purchase buy Queen's Treasure for Marcus
Tregoning is going to have to be well above average to win this from stall
1 even receiving weight and his debuts don't seem to be quite as 'sharp'
as they were 2-3 years ago (although he has had two seconds from 5 debuts
so far).
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In summary, a fascinating edition of a race which had Group 1 winners (Dutch
Art & Simply Perfect) in the first two places last year. Plenty of
potential improvers with In Uniform preferred to Swiss Franc of the previous
winners. Of the STO improvers both Paveroc and Hatta Fort are likeable
types and preference for the first over a faster 5f.
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At Carlisle Mazzanti,
as noted, above is the first runner from the Leicester race to test out
the credentials of the colts in that event/ He was supported on the day
and ran a solid race in fourth without ever looking likely to win. His
trainer seems to have found a good opportunity for him here but on the
downside he was a smaller, neat model and vulnerable to a better type.
There doesn't appear to be one of those in the field from those with previous
runs. It is worth noting Bazguy though.
He made a typically early debut for David Evans but really didn't look
physically or mentally ready to compete. He ran down the field and finished
among some pretty poor runners. But - picture
- he was a very strong build, especially in front although lighter behind
and probably not a real 5f type (his trainer runs pretty much everything
over 5f early anyway). After a break it will be interesting to see whether
he is now ready to show the ability he ouht to have.
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The race features a good newcomer on profile in Philario
and he appeals as the most likely to give Mazzanti trouble and hopefully
at a better price. We are in a period when we should expect some better
debut runners from Karl Burke and his last debutwas a good win for Bigfanofthat.
Philario received a positive sales report as one to track and after a slow
start we have now seen winners for his first season sire Captain
Rio.
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At Leicester in the 6f maiden we have another test of the strength of the
form of the Newbury maiden that Coasting won. After an inexperienced debut
American Art improved STO to
run a good fourth there from a wide draw. If you believe that was as strong
a race as it normally is he ought to win this race comfortably. If you
have a few niggling doubts then he may still win unless the newcomers are
ok. On previous form his main rival would be Ink Spot be he seems to be
very unco-operative. On debut he was backed to favourite but fell back
through the field and finished well back. Stepped up to 6f on softer going
next time jockey Hayley Turner had clearly been told to 'sort him out'
and to hit him with the whip as often as necessary to get him to take part.
Despite finishing second he trundled into that spot late looking less than
enamoured with the game. So, not one to support even though he probably
has the ability unless the price includes an element for his reluctance.
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There are three newcomers of interest and on principle it is a good idea
in the long term to avoid Michael Stoute debuts at less than 5/1. So Enactment
is obviously of interest in general terms but likely to be too short today.
Kevin Ryan is behind schedule and ought to be sending out some better types
by now and has said positive things about Golan
Knight so one to watch for support. The lack of a recent debut winner
is a bit of a niggle but they ought to come along with his best types.
Of the others trainer Alan McCabe has had one place and four duff debut
runs since he took over from Mark Polglase at major owner Paul Dixon's
Haygarth House training establishment. The quality of horses hasn't helped
but we do not have a good handle on whether he can 'get one ready' as they
say. The indications are, including from the sales, that Incomparable
is an ok type and ought to be a better test of how he handles debut runs.
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