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Two more runners with solid previous form beaten yesterday by newcomers
and the defeat of American Art
raised a further question over the quality of the Newbury maiden that Coasting
won. Mazzanti ran much better as
runner-up at Carlisle but wasn't even favourite behind support for newcomer
Chain Of Gold which suggested
he should be very good. Now, Ed McMahon's father Bryan could prepare a
2yo to win on debut pretty much whenever you wanted it to and he is still
involved in the training. With the son though, a slow start by the youngster
which will lose the race is a common occurence and more of the same saw
Chain Of Gold having to make up ground quickly. It isn't obvious he would
have won anyway but he travelled well enough to at least give his supporters
hope.
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Hatta Fort had finished behind Mazzanti at Leicester when they both started
their careers but was the better type and was too wound-up and immature
to show his best. He won the Novice race at Windsor and while having improved
his behaviour he still has scope for improvement and in that context did
well to win. Swiss Franc had improved notably from his Ascot debut both
in condition terms (coat, etc) but also in physical terms and had put on
weight and muscled up well. The pair pulled clear of runners with solid
early season form and they both look runners to take seriously and it would
be interesting to see Hatta Fort in the Coventry. If he were in a match
race with Coasting he ought to be able to see him off for example.
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Which brings us to Tuesday and the fillies' maiden at Southwell where Bastakiya
tries to become a STO winner which have been in shorter supply this season.
Her trainer, the cleverest man training on his own estimation, doesn't
get many strong debuts early in the season and when they win or go very
close as she did then they are usually good runners. She ought to improve
from debut, has the size to cope with a better debut runner and should
have no problem with the distance. She changes surface but other than that
has a solid profile and gets into the 'surely this one can win' category.
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She is assisted by a moderate looking group of runners against her with
previous form. The best of those ought to be Twilight
Belle who looked in top shape at Goodwood last time when Dettori rode
and got backed to favourite. She ran ok for just over 4f before fading
poorly and looking like a non-stayer. She runs again at 6f and with blinkers
applied so erhaps they felt it was unwillingness rather than lack of stamina.
Either way you are hoping for improvement rather than expecting it and
she has less scope to improve than Bastakiya.
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Of the newcomers Kevin Ryan's The
Lady Granuaile is of clear interest now that the trainer has had another
debut winner. She's by the US sire More
Than Ready who has become popular here with the success of La Chunga,
Traffic Guard and Ready For Spring. The other, less obvious, possible better
debut runner would be Bohobe for
James Given who is a good example of a 'Show Or Nothing' trainer. But realistically,
unless the Ryan runner is pretty useful the great man's Bastakiya ought
to get home first.
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The Ripon race is trickier and the profile produced a set of runners between
the 44-50 mark which is a low standard and therefore an open race. Of those
with previous form the Tim Easterby filly Starlight Girl made a peculiar
debut for the trainer in that she led the race. Typically his runners don't
show up well FTO and getting ito the first three or four early (as Cristal
Clear did) a good sign. She faded late on as would be expected but in receipt
of 5lbs sets a reosonable standard for the colts. Marcus Tregoning has
said in interview he was quite pleased with Hadaf's
debut when he finished 14th having led and faded badly. Ok, he ran a little
freely on softer going but this trainer doesn't normally have fades like
that and he is one to oppose and let beat you.
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Back to the newcomers then and Michael Jarvis has good record with FTO
debuts overall and does get them at this time of the season at these northern
tracks. Befortyfour cost a lot
considering his dam was just an ordinary 5f winner for Alan Berry and related
to no other winner. He ought to be a solid 2yo winner of some sort and
pretty ready here and in this lower level race could well be the accidental
FTO winner around the 5/1 mark.
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After being withdrawn from her intended debut at Leicester sue to soft
going Rocking makes her debut here.
The preview for that day said :-
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William Haggas has his first runner of the season and he doesn't target
2yo racing that strongly and has relatively few runs in the year but normally
a good strike rate. The early debuts are usually competitive 2yos of various
levels of ability from seller types through to Group winners like Majestic
Missile & Enticing. His Rocking is a half sister to Group 2 5f
2yo Superstar Leo but the dam has produced more limited types of late.
If she is any good the market (on this occasion, not in general) should
be informative.
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The other newcomer of interest is Jafra
and if he were with a different trainer, like Messrs. Burke or Given would
be a reasonable bet for this open event. He looked a good 2yo in the making
when first offered as a yearling and was retained for 18,000 guineas. On
being re-offered he improved to 33,000. The problem is that his trainer
has only had one debut winner in recent years and that was the 33/1 surprise
with Baltimore Jack in the pace affected race highlighted in the June 3rd
Review. A typical debut for the trainer loses ground at the start, needs
shoving along at some point and finishes unplaced at longer odds. His best
recent 2yo - Captain Rio - was inexperienced FTO and Listed winner Taberet
got well behind before his ability got him through to second. Both of those
debuts were above maiden level. So, probably more one to watch for the
future although likely to be a long price and this isn't a strong race
on profile.
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