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Tuesday brought us two heartwarming sights. At Lingfield the 'concrete
highway' up the rail in the last one-and-a-half furlongs seems to be still
in place. They started a two furlong race with a set of closely matched
runners and, despite getting outpaced as the race got going, Swallow
Star finished brightly as she hit the concrete and won clearly in the
end. Tradition is a wonderful thing. The target could be to find at least
one double figure SP Nursery race winner at Lingfield's turf track, Chepstow
and Ayr which storm home up the stands' rail by season's end. David Evans
knows about the strip at Chepstow so perhaps he's one to look at - perhaps
with Bazguy over 7f. The other was a useful STO performer (finally) ironing
out some non stayers and trees and winning impressively - well done Bastakiya.
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That filly links us well to a pair of very good fillies' maidens at
Nottingham. The first of which looks to have three or four fillies
who are probably better than average and a couple that should go on to
Group races. When Mr Noseda's Baffled
(Dettori ridden) beat Bastakiya on debut it seemed likely she was his best
filly because she ran at a tine when he introduces a batch of solid or
better runners. The general set-up and vibe on the day confirmed that and
the trainer looked pretty pleased with himself in the unsaddling enclosure.
Given what Bastakiya did at Southwell you would think they will both be
at Ascot in the Group 3 6f Albany Stakes.
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Looking at Mr Noseda's recent record in the late May to early June period
in 2005-6 these are the horses he has run on debut :-
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2005 = Hill Of Grace (maiden winner), Vague (Group placed), In The Fashion
(4th at Royal Ascot, maiden winner), La Chunga (Albany winner), New Art
(dual winner)
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2006 = Sander Camillo (Albany and Cherry Hinton victress), Kalgoorlie (4th
at Royal Ascot, maiden winner), Simply Perfect (Group 1 winner), Minaash
(maiden winner).
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Which means that we should be looking closely at anything he runs at this
time although it is worth noting that of that set none won FTO.
His two Albany Stakes winners both ran as maidens as did Kalgorrlie and
In The Fashion. Which means that Baffled did better than usual for a debut
but was opposed by a filly from a gently-does-it introduction outfit and
got maximum encouragement from Dettori. Ok, now for the last two years
Mr Noseda has received an expensively purchased filly (more than one actually)
bought at Fasig-Tipton sales company's 2yo 'Breeze Up' sale at Calder in
Florida. La Chunga cost Robert Ogden $270,000 and won the Albany and Sander
Camillo cost him $500,000 and did better (although small and lightly made
which seems to hae caught up with her this year). He recently took delivery
(from the Kentucky stud preparers) of a $530,000 filly from the same source
for the same owner and Francesca
D'Gorgio is in Div one and running at the right time. Dettori goes
up to Nottingham to sit on her to complete the match. But, if Baffled is
the 6f Albany filly then what's this one? Is she going for the Queen Mary
if she's fast enough? Anyway, she ought to be good although not especially
likely to win and moderate value inthe market.
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[As an aside the previous paragraph suggest this is an uninterrupted production
line of top class fillies for Mr Ogden but it isn't quite like that. Last
year he brought back Ame De Casa for $270,000 and she had a few runs, including
being beaten at 5/4f in an appalling four runner maiden before being sold
off for 10,000 guineas. Cleide Da Silva cost $250,000 and had her first
run in a handicap this Monday off OR 70 without looking 'well in'. There's
a pile of chippings next to each diamond. What you need to do is spend
even more money Mr Ogden, try seven figures next time - ooh, no hang on,
that's what Godolphin do and, no sorry that idea doesn't pan out - Dubai
Escapade anyone?]
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The race gets better because Kashoof
missed her intended 5f debut last week because of soft ground to run here.
Owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum and debuts by his 2yos for this trainer are
always of interest. She is the first foal of the useful Khulood who won
on debut for the same trainer (and owner, of course) on the 26th July in
2002 at 5/1. At Sandown she would have been first string and it is interesting
she starts at 5f which the trainer rarely does with 2yos. She ought to
be useful and here as a trial for an Ascot attempt. The niggle is that
the debuts for the trainer to date have been poor and uncompetitive and
a mix of poor types and plain cluelessness. Now, not winding them up for
the debuts so they enjoy the experience is one thing but please Mr Dunlop,
at least tell them what the game is before it kicks off.
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And then we have Speed Song who
is out of crack 2yo filly Superstar Leo and a half-sister to last year's
Molecomb winner Enticing. Mr Haggas ran the latest sibling to Superstar
Leo yesterday at Ripon (Rocking)
with no show but if he has a better fily they will often win FTO at this
time of year (like Sharplaw Venture who placed in the Queen Mary) and Enticing
in 2006. The other strong debut profile in the race is Sophie's
Girl for Peter Chapple-Hyam who has had 3 winners and two second places
from 5 debuts in 2007. He's another who has used this late May-June period
for better types although he has varied approach in his three years since
coming back from Hong Kong. Last year he ran two moderate types early in
the season and then really got going with debut wins for Tariq on May 27th
and Dutch Art on June 5th. Either he has changed his approach in 2007 or
he has more precocious types who have already been out and won. Sophie's
Girl looked just an average maiden winner at the sales and her shortness
was noted as an issue. The trainer has said similar earlier inthe year
suggested she was on the small side .
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Unilateral cost 85,000 guineas
and is closely related to Danehill Dancer and two Listed winners and with
that background she seemed like a good buy just as a breeding prospect
(a 'Golden Goose'). She was another small but usable type on sales review
and while a likely winner should find this group too strong. Eye Catching
was close up in the Sandown maiden Kashoof dodged but the point was made
in the June 3rd Review to be wary of taking that race literally. She achieved
little on the day and makes no appeal against the newcomers.
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In summary, a fascinating race and hopefully not a disappointment. Given
that Francesca D'Giorgio is likely to be a shorter priced favourite B2yoR
will be looking in the preliminaries on-course to see if either Speed Song
or Kashoof are good enough to win first time.
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The second Division is less taking and with more runners with experience
and they don't make a strong case. The Newbury fillies's conditions race
that Pantherii ran in didn't look
much good on profile, a little worse in paddock review and was run in a
dreadful time. The second (Nijoom Dubai whose attitude was very poor at
Folkestone and a big negative) and fifth have been beaten since it looks
a race to oppose. Pantherii is most unlikely to win this and the third
- Rio Princess - is another
to be against when she runs at Kempton in the evening. Linnet
Park was running close enough to a strong pace at Wolverhampton on
her debut until she found she doesn't do left hand bends. She's
a likely improver but not to set a strong standard. Miss
Emma May got outpaced over 6f FTO but drops to 5f on a faster course
and she doesn't have a 5f pedigree.
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Of the newcomers Narmeen is dealt with above and might just be an accidental
debut winner but doesn't strongly appeal despite the owner. Which, assuming
that Drastic Measure doesn't run leaves the choice between Mr Noseda's
Fleeting Spirit and Cute
for Clive Brittain. The first is presumably a usable 2yo but would need
to be useful to win on a normal debut although this race doesn't look that
strong.
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Which means that Cute is one to check out as a surprise debut winner for
the trainer. His overall record with 2yos and the way their careers develop
isn't a positive but the FTO runners are usually competent enough and the
good ones can win. He is yet another example of the Late May and early
June gambit. In that period between 2003-6 he has debuted a number of his
better 2yos with Menhoubah (Group winner) successful on her May 30th debut
in 2003, a range of good 2yos started in 2004 with Tony James (Group winner)
a FTO success. Cute doesn't have a 5f pedigree but in an open field she
makes appeal as a lively longer priced runner.
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The Kempton 5f maiden is interesting because it is another clash
of the early season form with the more progressive types. At Lingfield
yesterday the likes of Ben (4th in the first race of the year) and Mr Fips
(held up this time) finished close up but beaten by a newcomer and demonstrating
how their lack of scope to improve hampers them. In this race we have Concertmaster
(3rd in the first race just ahead of Ben) and Iamagrey (3rd in the 7th
race and 3rd in the suspect Sandown fillies' maiden) and boasting solid
form and with Concertmaster well drawn. But both aren't 'going anywhere'
and the right answer has to be to look amongst those with more potential.
Avertitop retuens after a break from not handling firm ground last time
and should set a solid standard but among Dome
Rock, Fortuity and Liberty
Valance there ought to be a stronger finisher with more to them. The
first's form looks better after the fourth ran well and the fifth won a
good Novice on Monday. His trainer is a typical 'peak STO' merchant and
we should see his best game here. Sylvester Kirk has been bullish about
Liberty Valance who missed his intended start in mid May. The trainer only
gets debut winners with his best 2yos but the vibes are that he's a better
one (if not a 'best') and should make a good showing.
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Which leaves us with Fortuity for
bogeyman-in-chief John Gosden. Each season he has a number of STO winners
that come from the apparent 'nowhere' of lost debut runs. Never beyond
eigth at Goodwood his jockey let him drift home. As a physical type he
was close to the best there was and he must be better than he showed. He
switches to the all-weather and 5f which seems a positive for the trainer.
Let's hope the duff debut makes a likeable price.
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Kempton's 8:10 is a 6f Novice and on previous form the difference
in weights bring a quite closely matched profile. But as we saw at Windsor
on Monday the horses with more scope and class (if present) tend to win
and place. The previous winners don't fall into that category and both
would look small and less taking if stood next to Swiss Franc and he couldn't
overcome the winners' weight penalty at Windsor. Primed and Poised wouldn't
fall into that category either and it would probably be falling into a
trap to think she's within 2-3 lengths of Baffled and Bastakiya depsite
her Lingfield effort. She also runs for John Hills sho isn't a trainer
to support in general. We have probably seen the best of Higgys Boy which
means assuming Captain Royale is just an average Noseda debut the choice
is between Master Chef, Mansii and Dream Eater.
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Of those three Master Chef makes most appeal. Given a 'kind' introduction
he was supported second time but found himself in a very tough race with
Declaration Of War and Silver Guest and wasn't pressed to try too hard
to chase that pair whnen they went clear. Mansii is dealt with above and
overall he's the type likely to find something to beat him in this type
of race although he is solid enough. Dream Eater made a good debut by the
trainer's standards and has just enough scope to improve to make the strongest
competitor to Master Chef.
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At Ripon the Kevin Ryan trained Russian Reel travelled best for
5 furlongs on soft going on his debut before fading and producing just
below an average trainer debut. Given that he and Nickel Silver are likely
to dispute favouritism it may be worth giving Mission Impossible one last
try at an each-way price. He was compromised by the pace duel at York last
time and ran better than the final result shows. Nickel Silver's form on
debut can be made to look whatever you want it to be depending whether
you look in front or behind him. Look forward and he was chasing Bespoke
Boy home and he nearly won the Woodcot. Look behind and he finished just
in front of filly Prunes who has been dropped to claiming level smartish
by Mr Prescott once the 'send them to Brighton' ruse came up short. Unless
you have seen them all in the flesh Mission Impossible has done more than
the other two and may be at a longer price.
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