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The 5f fillies' maidens at Nottingham on Tuesday both produced what looked
useful FTO performances but from non-obvious sources. The first division
of the race saw the three that were either expensive or very well related
stuck around the 3/1 mark with no real buzz for any of them. None stood
out in the group beforehand and you wouldn't have picked them out without
the numbercloths. In the race Speed Song ran a sound race in third while
Kashoof got behind before making ground after halfway before being allowed
to drift home. The $530,000 spent on Francesca D'Gorgio looked poor value
as she looked like it was the first time she'd been asked to gallop in
a group on grass (perhaps it was). Her trainer's best fillies haven't usually
won on debut although they showed more than this. Not one to give up on
entirely and the trainer didn't seem that bothered afterwards and could
offr no explanation.
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The race was won by Regal Step at 25/1 and she put up a very likeable performance
by setting the pace and applying pressure which got to all of her rivals
eventually. She won clearly and wasn't hard pressed. Her trainer said that
from when she first galloped he knew she was the best 2yo he had ever had
but added the rider that he hadn't trained a lot of them. But, he has trained
Listed 5f winner Parisien Elegance and Regal Step's half sister Smooch
was a solid enough conditions race victress.
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The second division was won by Noseda filly Fleeting Step and presumably
she was the one that Dettori was actually there to ride and why the trainer
looked so nonchalant after the first fillies' defeat. She produced a similar
perforamcne to Regal Step and afterwards Mr Noseda was also talikg about
the Queen Mary as the next stop. So, now we know that Baffled at Lingfield
was the good Albany Stakes filly and Fleeting Step the Queen Mary prospect.
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An interesting note to both races was that the winner of the first was
25/1 and Fleeting Step drifted from 3/1 to 4/1 before winning. Rober Cowell,
trainer of Fleeting Step, probably upset the sponsors (WBX) of the meeting's
main race by saying "We expected it, we were all on at 125/1 on Betfair".
That was in response to the question of whether the win was a surprise
to him. That is something you should think about every time you read something
like "The market should provide a guide" or "Check the market for clues"
in the runner and race summeries that appear in the 'Racing Post' and elsewhere.
For the most part the market is little use in guiding and what clues there
are pretty subtle and not easy to pick up on. The winners aren't all plunges
like the one on Grylls at Sandown. B2yoR has some sympathy with the Racing
Post spotlighters given the amount of racing and the time pressures but
"check the market" is really just wating space that could be used for something
else.
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With that advice still in the air what can be usefully said about Friday's
races. The Goodwood maiden has a strong recent history with Listed winner
Kualachi and classic winning Dubawi supported by other useful types. The
pair of King's Icon and Barbarossa set a strong standard and are similar
physical types. The race that first ran in a race looks ordinary unless
you believe that Dream Eater and Higgys Boys ran to good ratings at Kempton
on Wednesday. He probably has less improvement than Barbarossa who was
given a typical Hughes 'try out' ride here FTO. Asked to do just enough
to see what the response was like and then and then eased home.
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The improvement to STO runs by Gosden 2yos can be hard to judge and the
SP of Bourse on debut is perhaps a clue that he is average. The newcomers
would have to be useful to win FTO if King's Icon or Barbaross can run
to 60+. Barry Hills has a strong set of 2yos in 2007 and has already had
5 debut winners (from 14) including three of the last four. He is still
likely to produce another in the next 7 day period and probably for a major
owner like Kahlid Abdulla. On balance Prince Desire seems unlikely to be
another Bob's Surprise who won on debut here last week.
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Brighton has a typical race with three runners struggling to break their
maiden dropped to the course to find a winnable race and each other. Shatter
Resistant, Sinead Of Aglish and Elna Bright have run 11 times between them
for eleven places. The only one who appears to have some scope to improve
is Elna Bright who got quite close to Shatter Resistant on a non-pressurised
debut and probably ran below his best at Chepstow next time when hindered
by a strong pace.
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Shatter Resistant likes to lead and presumably will again and set the race
up for 'something'. Sinead Of Aglish has got a little behind in her last
three races and then only plugged on slowly and being unable to reach the
front. So a race between a leader who can't hang on and a plugger-on who
never quite gets to the front (although the uphill finish here should help
her). That doesn't sound too pretty, perhaps Elna Bright can make that
torture irrelevant.
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Karl Burke has won with his last three 2yo runners (all on debut) and these
patches of strong form are typical and presumably show how he brings his
2yos along to a set place. He has won the Catterick fillies' Auction race
for the last two years and seems to have found the right opportunity for
Speddy Senorita. She has only recorded a rating of 40 in her two runs to
date but is value for up to 50 which is what seemed reasonable at the sales.
On debut here, when she was supported, she was hampered and STO she was
in a wild race at Wolverhampton with a frantic pace (the race produced
another winner on Thursday when Lady Benjamin (hung right on the bend and
lost her chance won at Hamilton). She did best of those closer to the pace
and looked a real professional when railing well and taking the lead in
the straight. The niggle is that she is a small and limited in the longer
term (as was his winner two years ago in City For Conquest).
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