British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season Race Preview

British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season

Racing Preview - June 9th

Today's Races

[153] : Goodwood 3:55, 6f Auction (5) Div I

[154] : Goodwood 6:10, 6f Auction (5) Div II

[155] : Haydock 3:40, 5f Maiden (5)

[156] : Lingfield 7:20, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)

[157] : Musselburgh 2:15, 5f Maiden (5)

[158] : Newbury 7:00, 6f Auction Fillies' (4)

[159] : Windsor 2:30, 6f Maiden (5) Div I

[160] : Windsor 5:15, 6f Maiden (5) Div II

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June 9th Summary :

Two interesting divisions of the 6f Maiden at Windsor with the first looking to have a lot of future potential. The experienced runners look discountable other than Nacho Libre who was first string for Barry Hill in the first 5f maiden of the season at Newbury won by Winker Watson. He finished in midfield after having made a little progress to fourth a furlong out from a similar starting point. That race looked quite strong but the subsequent runners have placed at best and in general not competed strongly. The first winner came from the race this week when Lord Deevert (last after travelling quite well with the leaders to past halfway when he saddle slipped which is a regular event for him) won a four runner seller. That isn't going to make anyone feel better about the race and the way he travelled with the leaders a bad sign in retrospect.
The fact that he has been given a break and runs at a quiet Windsor meeting rather than in a better race suggests he may be just average. On the positive side he was a decent physical specimen although a bit below average height. Also, his astute trainer has an 8 from 31 (25%) winning record with 2yos given more than a 28 day break to their second runs in the last four years. In total 17, including winners, of the 31 placed so given that Nacho Libre was an early runner and the vibes were that he was 'ok' at Newbury we should be able to assume he'll improve to be competing well here.
There are five interesting newcomers and the best of these should provide the winner if Nacho Libre is just average. Given the 2007 record of Peter Chapple-Hyam the well drawn Crystal Reign looks a strong alternative. The trainer started with three debut winners followed by two seconds and a fourth. On pedigree, with a stout dam side, he doesn't appeal as an above average type and probably just a solid debut. Earlier in the week it was noted that Mick Channon doesn't get many debut winners after May and the ones he gets in June are normally after Royal Ascot. The one exception in recent years was an odds-on targeted win for the useful Narrjoo last year on June 14th. In general the debut wins he gets are for important owners and he has had three this season for Narrjoo's owner Ahmed Al Maktoum (yellow colours with black epaulets). If Natmana is a good one the market should be informative in this case and a longer price (say 8/1 plus with no positives) would be likely to informative. He is also well drawn.
Richard Hannon gets debut winners regularly at three main times of the year and they correspond with the best types he has of different varieties. The best of the precocious 5f types will win in early season (Fat Boy & Cracking) and then in later May and early June the better 5-6f ones will win (Sweepstake) and these will usually go on to Royal Ascot. The third is with the best of the 7f runners into July. He has 100 juveniles run each year so he will get odd debut successes outside these period but they will tend to be runners who have been held up or in weaker race. He runs the expensive Choisir colt Hustle here and he would need to be well above average and win to go the Royal Ascot at this late stage. That is just possible but as with the Channon runner it would show in the market if he is useful. However, this would most likely be with late (last 5 minutes before the race as with Sweepstake) so isn't that easy to spot.
Michael Stoute has had a seond and a poor run on soft ground so far and the message is always to be wary of supporting his debut runners. He runs Determind Stand here by a precocious sire out of a stout dam. Even if he is really good (and he didn't quite convince as that at the sales) the trainer wouldn't mind starting with a placed run and he isn't that well drawn. The ground is forecast Good-to-Firm at Windsor today and the stands' rail bias usually shows up more in those circumstances. The other runner of interest for the future in Compton Ridge who looked a solid 2yo winner at the sales and a 4th-6th finish here would be typical.
In summary a fascinating race with Nacho Libre, Natmana and Crystal Reign as the most likely places and the first two on the top of the B2yoR list to check out for the win in Paddock Review.
The second division has a different shape with Seeking Star setting a strong standard. If you look at the - result - from the Newmarket maiden he ran in it is possibly with some hindsight to split that field into probable ability bands. This normally happens with a race with a solid pace that spreads the field out. The runners from 12th back (headed by the moderate Rimrock) look discountable and other than Flash Of Fire (runs in the first division) were at longer SPs. The two in front of Rimrock - Seeking The Star (well beaten at Kempton this week) & Bourse (well beaten at Goodwood yesterday after support from 20/1 to 7/1 despite looking small, sweaty and unco-operative in the prelims) looked below average and not obvious maiden winners. Four of the first five home had been prominent from before halfway showing a sound pace but a usable one and are maiden winners at least with Luck Money the most ready for the day. The fift and sixth both made ground from behind midfield and showed enough to be likely maiden winners and Alwaabel especially was a good physical type. Classical Rhythm was the main fader off the front rank and ran for a trainer who prepares the 2yos very well for debut. He probably wont improve much. Which leaves Unnefer (should have done better with a Cecil prep) and Pride Of India (smaller type but very well put together) on the 'possibles' list with the second much more likely to show good improvement.
Seeking Star for Mick Channon was another bigger likeable type in the field and the last race fade uphill was the only slight negative ont he day. At Windosr he is well drawn and has shown he can race with the pace. He ought to set a standard that the newcomers can't reach. Huzzah was seventh in the Newbury 6f maiden won by Coasting and that form is still on the 'suspect' list and he doesn't appeal. Chapple-Hyam's Azeer seems more likely to need further and is ridden by a 7lb apprentice and the best newcomer will probably be Wannarock for Ed Dunlop.
The fillies' auction race at Newbury has a good record of producing good runners with last year's race won by Group winner Dhanyata with the supported Indian Ink (Group 1 winner from Dhanyata) in 7th having been given a typical 'try them out and then let them fade a lot' ride by Richard Hughes. This year's race doesn't have an obvious star on profile but the fillies with the best form - I Don't Do Walkin (strongly supported on debut) and Miss Versatile set a good standard. In an open race below that level the best of the newcomers can place at longer prices and the priime candidate for that on her trainer's record is Agon Eyes and the other possible Talamahana.
A couple of other general points are that Wave Hill has a positive sales report to back up the Dettori riding factor in the first division of the 6f aution at Goodwood. His trainer gets rare debut wins at this time of year although the opposition in this race looks professional at best and lacking scope. At Lingfield the stands' rail bias in the last two furlongs showed up again this week and should be watched for. In the same race John Dunlop's Festivale and Night Skier make their second runs to test the predictions made in the preview for the 8th June. The trainer usually chooses appropriate races for second runs which probably tells us that Festivale is an average type and she isn't well drawn. Eddie Ahren needs to get her across to the stands' side probably with some early pace on the evidence of the race earlier in the week.

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