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Last week saw no races above Class 4 and the only horses to break into
the top 25 on performances for the season were Hatta
Fort and Swiss Franc who
were first and second in the 5f Novice last Monday. It is likely that one
or both will run at Royal Ascot and Hatta Fort has good scope to improve
his rating above 75 and will probably prove better at 6f. Swiss Franc has
less scope although had improved notably from when last seen at Acot in
early May and had muscled up well. While competitive at Novice and perhaps
average Listed level he doesn't seem likely to be up to real Group Class.
The defeat of Wolgan Valley (who he had a brief wrestle with at Newmarket)
at Haydock over the weekend would support that view.
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The other races during the week did produce some promising efforts with
Bastakiya's comfortable romp at
Southwell visually impressive although only worth a mid 60s rating. However,
she can clearly do better than that and ought to be competitive in the
Albany (fillies' 6f Group 3) if shes goes there. Two 5f fillies made good
debuts at Nottingham last Wednesday and both Regal
Step and Fleeting Spirit
produced similar front running 'pressurising' performances that broke all
resistence. These type of runs are often a good sign depending upon the
strength of opposition partly because it shows that they can improve further
when put into a competitive race. Janina
and Starlit Sands have set
the best 5f female performances to date without looking fully pressed and
Sweepstake has won at Listed
level without having to really battle or get into top gear. Add the two
Nottingham winners and the likes of Cristal
Clear & Loch Jipp and the
Queen Mary would look a better field than last year's.
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Other good debut victories came from Golan
Knight & Philario (one
of three debut winners in a row for Karl Burke) and there were good wins
from Jamie Osborne's Drawnfromthepast
(Brighton) and Cee Bargara. Mr
Osborne has a strong set of 2yos this year although he has lost Group Therapy
for the season with a pastern injury. Cee Bargara's win in a Novice at
Kempton looked visually good and came only 4 days after he had been well
beaten in the Woodcote at Epsom. He got hampered early on in that race
and given the strong pace was never able to get back into contention although
he did make progress after halfway. The Kempton race got called "the strongest
Novice race of the season so far" afterwards in some quarters but this
looked unlikely given the opposition (we should all know how good Higgys
Boy is by now) and you would presume he wouldn't be competitive in the
Coventry if he went to Ascot.
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The coming week is another quieter one before Royal Ascot in the one that
follows and the headline is probably that the 7 furlong races start. Typically,
this is with a low grade race at Yarmouth (home of the juvenile seller).
Moderate horses who have already proved themselves too slow for 5-6f taking
each other on to see who can last out 7f least slowly, hmmm. The open 7f
maidens until later in the month are often moderate and with limited future
importance.
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On Monday at Windsor the 6f maiden should be on going firmer than
good and with the 16 runner field the high number bias should play a part.
On firm going it can often prove impossible to pull back a leader close
to the rail and this can show up in longer distance races at the course
.It was interesting watching the racing on Saturday at the course to see
how jockeys like Richard Hughes and Seb Sanders stay close to the rail
in any race if they can and know that drifting wider will cost more than
just a little distance covered.
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Which means that the maiden is interesting because there are probably 7
runners which you could give some sort of chance of winning - Advertisement,
Hansinger & Eternal
Luck as 'Group A' and possibles for Bazguy,
Artsu, Relative
Order and Baronovici. They
account for 6 of the stalls closest to the preferred stands rail and only
Artsu is moderately drawn. He runs for a trainer who gets rare debut winners
anyway so the draw discounts him although he's one for the furture on his
sales report and a 3rd to 5th placing here showing sound promise ought
to result. Relative Order is well drawn next to the rail and is another
with a good enough sales report to believe he can develop to be an average
maiden winner. But, his trainer hasn't had a strong debut this year and
that first with his normal methods and he's unlikely to compete for the
win.
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Advertisement has led in both his races but was picked off comfortably
on firmer ground on his debut by two good runners. On soft ground next
time he was much less effective and got overhauled by a rare Cumani debut
winner in a slow time with some poor runners not far behind. They were
both over 5f and he steps to 6f here on a flatter course. On set-up he
looks a smaller 5f type and the move to 6f not an obvious positive given
he hasn't got home properly over 5f. He may well lead here and get the
rail and that will be an advantage but it isn't difficult to visualise
something with a bit more size and scope getting past him in the last furlong.
The obvious possibility is Hansinger who looked a certain 2yo winner at
the sales and made a good debut over 5f at 66/1. He also steps up to 6f
in an ideal world the paddock review will show him to still be a bigger,
likeable type and a bet on the day given his good draw.
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Bazguy also led last time at at average pace over 5f on Carlisle's uphill
course and got outpaced as Mazzanti and co. made their efforts but wasn't
stopping and plugged on well enough in fifth. That was an improvement from
his debut and the step to 6f a benefit but he may well find this track
too quick and B2yoR would like him to not finish too close (unless he can
win) so that he gets an Official Rating around 66-72 and is worth following
into the nurseries when they start in early July.
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Machael Jarvis runs Eternal Luck and readers will know that B2yoR sees
the trainer as a 'Show Or Nothing' type who gets regular debut winners.
On checking his recent record his figures in the May-July period in 2004
to 2006 are 2 from 13 (2004), 2 from 17 (2005) & 2 from 17 again in
2006 .The wins have come in close pairs in each year but in different months.
Which was a bit of a surprise because the memory is still noting his 2003
record when 7 of his first 11 debuts won (including a particularly galling
short-head success for Autumn Pearl which can still bring on cold sweats).
The debuts wins are typically with his best types and usually for the major
arab owners. He is a trainer who gets his runners fitter than the average
and usually with enough nous for Philip Robinson to fill in the gaps on
the day if they have the ability. Which means that Eternal Luck ought to
compete well enough from his good draw but isn't quite the 'ogre' the imagination
thought if you still have his 2003 playing on your mind.
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Richard Hannon gets odd debut winners in June but if you take out the better
types at 7f after Royal Ascot and the good ones in early June getting a
run in before an Ascot appearance they are pretty rare. Assuming Baronivici
is the first string he is well drawn enough but looked a little below average
maiden winner at the sales and unlikely to be the better type that could
win on debut. With Ryan Moore back riding knowing which of the Hannon runners
is preferred is more difficult. While he was off you could assume Hughes
was on the better on but that doesn't work now.
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In summary, Advertisement could be one of those 'hug the rail' winners
who never seem to stop but hasn't looked big enough or a strong enough
finisher to really convince. Hansinger should be ok value given he runs
for a noname trainer and makes more appeal. Eternal Luck proabably best
of the newcomers but watch Relative Order and especially Artsu for the
future. And, Mr Evans, no 'great leap forward' for Bazguy here and a 20/1
win or mucking up his handicap mark.
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Pontefract is a low quality affair on profile and unlikely to see
any of the better types that have won the last three editions. Lake
Sabina makes most appeal for the win and comes out top on ratings and
is well drawn. We haven't seen the best of here yet (which is only 50-54
range admittedly) because she got hung out wide at the same course on debut
and caught up in a pace battle next time. Her trainer's runners do tend
to improve a little with racing and this has the 'now or never' feel for
supporting her. Both La Chicaluna
and Welcome Return have '2'
next to their names but without showing strong form. Welcome Return has
the worst of the draw and doesn't make much appeal. La Chicaluna probably
has little improvement and is unlikely to be much value given the very
positive view taken f her Newcastle run generally.
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The higher priced newcomer include Cryptonite
Diamond (Walter Swinburn) and Serena's
Storm (John Quinn ) who are both trainers who can get debut wins and
places with good types. However, both are poorly drawn and with the best
of the others likely to set a 50s standard they would have to rate into
the 60s on debut giving weight. This would need an above average type or
a very well prepared on.
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Mr Swinburn is interesting because his father-in-law (Peter Harris) could
be relied on to get debut winners every season when he was in charge. The
assistant trainer who looked after the 2yos changed the season before Walter
took over and he presuambly tried some of his own methods on getting the
keys to the stable. He's had a couple of debut winners (from 33 runners)
in the last two seasons but hasn't got going until well into July. Given
that many of his runners are partnerships running on two year deals he
perhaps is trying to get the 2yos out earlier to give the members something
to watch. This year he has already had his first ever runners in April-May,
two winners, including one on debut and a well supported FTO third over
the weekend.
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If Mark Johnston were in better form with his 2yos Suzi
Spends would be interesting from stall 1. She only cost 11,000 guines
at the sales and looked good value at that price. The trainer has a good
record with getting wins with this type of cheaper purchase and she ought
to be a winner at some level. But his 2yos recent debuts have been patchy
and the STO runs probably more disappointing. Not one to think about unless
she is an each-way price.
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The seller at Wolverhampton is a typical 'Headgear and Apprentice
derby' wtih 5 of the 10 runners having some bit of extra tack tied to their
head and remarkably only three apprentices. It doesn't appeal greatly as
a betting opportunity other than perhaps Nathan
Dee. He will stand out as something different from the limited seller
rabbits he takes on - picture.
He made his debut for Richard Hannon at 50/1 with a 7lb apprentice on and
looked unco-operative and got whipped early but finished well back. He
played a little more ball in a 'disappointment derby' at Brighton and looked
more like a racehorse. It would be interesting to know what the problem
is with him because he got sold off on June 4th at the Brightwell sales
at Ascot for only £2,600 to Phil McEntee. On physical set-up that's
ok value so perhaps his attitude is terrible or he has some physical defect.
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Anyway, Mr McEntee hasn't taken any chances and has added, blinkers, eyeshields
as well as a tongue tie but has left the apprentice off. If the horse were
to use his size and participate he would be out of place against the likes
of Miss Antropist and able to dust them off. Parhaps just see what price
he is.
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