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The Salisbury is an auction and the limitation on upper sales price
to run has led to a low quality field on profile. The two with the best
public form stand out on profile with Ballinskelligs
Boy on top and with a little more scope to improve for 6f than Ramblin
Bob. The first of those was a cheap buy who has grown notably from
yearling to 2yo. However, he didn't look to be a particularly good mover
on debut and got tired in the last furlong over 5f last time having tried
to match the pace of Barraland. If he can improve a little and finish the
race off properly over 6f then he sets a solid standard. But that's two
'ifs'. Ramblin Bob is the neat and ready end of the 2yo physical types
and probably has moderate improvement from what he has shown. However,
he had to switch to make progress last time and his trainer is now in better
form with two winners last week. On the downside he isn't that well drawn
in 2 in the centre of the course with this big field. Again, in a field
lacking obvious potential for the day he ought to place.
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In these Auction events there is usually at least one runner who has developed
well from the yearling sales (Ballinskelligs Boy fits that as long as he
can move his size efficiently) who can often win looking quite comfortable
given the overall moderate quality of the field. If you look at the Result
for last year's race - there was also a 16 horse field and only two won
later in the season. The winner won a Novice on her next run and the fourt
a nursery off OR71. The second and third have both run in maidens as 3yos
recently.
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So the profile of a modest race with the two with the best hints of form
is not untypical. Finding an obvious strong debut among the newcomers isn't
easy but the well drawn El Fuser
looked a competitive 2yo at this level at the sales. His trainer's early
runners are usually his 'ok' 2yos as well. The other runner of interest
is Goldhill Fair who ran in
the Brocklesby for Bill Turner. He normally runs one of his best two 2yos
in that event but he hasn't had an obviously better type this year. His
2yos looked well behind schedule in their early runs and the wins (mostly
in sellers, typically) have only recently started. He has been given a
break and isn't well drawn in 1 but with a low weight and a 7lb apprentice
he's a more likely 'surprise' than most.
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The Redcar maiden has a different shape with two potentially strong
newcomers up against those with bits-and-pices of form. Tim Easterby's
Musical
Charm steps up to 6f after getting outpaced in two races over 5f and
then plugging on in the last furlong. At Thirsk last time she was behind
three good 5f fillies so that wasn't a great surprise and she showed enough
to compete well here. Of the others with form Borasco was a never competitive
third over a stiffer 6f on debut and makes less appeal. Sparton Duke was
well supported on debut at Goodwood for Eoghan O'Neill and co-owner John
Fretwell et al were all there to see him. He ran in a line-of-four for
the lead to past halfway but faded notably and did a moderate seond best
of those four. The trainer has had a disappointing STO runner this season
with a similar profile with New Colossus (Hamilton to Brighton, 9/1 STO)
and a STO winner with a Brighton to Musselburgh transfer (Victorian Bounty,
9/1 both runs) - is someone getting paid a good 'mileage rate' here?
Sparton Duke didn't look any more than an average 2yo type at best at Goodwood
but perhaps the south coast to well North switch is the one to follow.
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However, there are two strong debut runners with Mark Johnston's Boomtown
and Kevin Ryan's Wotashirtfull.
In the last few seaons Mr Johnston has typically got his debut winners
in the first half of the season in three phases. Over 5f in April with
his best precocious 2yo(s), odd ones in May over 6f with useful types (typically
in the Ripon maiden in mid month) and then in a batch after Royal Ascot
over 6-7f. This year the 2yos are behind schedule and his two winners included
Grand Fleet who won over 5f in April (but faded badly as favourite next
time and not untypical for his juveniles in 2007). He hasn't had a really
strong debut since with just odd places. He has such a large string and
is such a reliable trainer the better types and debut wins will surely
come along so the question is whether this will start before Royal Ascot
this year. On profile Boomtown is just the right sort for a debut win -
Maktoum owned, closely related to star 2yo City
On A Hill etc. This is the sort of softer maiden that he could win
if he's ok. The market tends to be little use with Johnston debut runenrs
because a majority start at 5/1 or less including all abilities. His reputation
and the profile of many of his 2yos along with the use of lower quality
northern maidens ensures this. The 'Market' is usually only significant
at the extremes with 6/4 and less a sign of a real useful one and 10/1
and more of obe probably below average.
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Kevin Ryan is also behind his normal pattern and has noted the dry spell
in spring as part of the problem. He has had a couple of winners in the
last week including a debut winner in a soft maiden. Wotashirtfull has
a good enough background to be at least an average type although it's interesting
he starts at 6f given his siblings include four 2yos that have won over
5f as juveniles. As with Mr Johston the prices of his 2yos can be unrealistically
short in these sort of events because of his reputation.
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In summary an interesting pair of races with neither having a runner with
a completely solid profile. Ballinskelligs Boy has a boom-or-bust feel
about him and will either win comfortably or flop and Ramblin Bob is the
more solid runner. Neither set a standard that a lurker couldn't beat.
The newcomers look more interesting than those with previous runs at Redcar
and Boomtown may be a good indicator of whether the Johnston stable is
coming into form.
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Windsor 6f Maiden - Monday 11th June :-
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On profile the race looked an interesting group and with six of the best
seven horses well drawn. The time for the race was ordinary and the first
six home in a bunch and getting in each other's way to varying extents
and the form not that strong. In paddock review the best two horses were
Eternal Luck and Baronivici and via different routes they ended up in the
first two places. A brief summary of some of the horses :-
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Eternal Luck (Pic)
- relatively cheap buy for Sultan Shah at 'just' 42,000 guineas. A shorter,
heavily built, barrel of a horse with enough length to stretch and use
his strength athletically. Not fully fit and given his build would need
racing to tighten up. Also, relaxed in a 'doesn't know what's going to
happen' way before the race and in that context did very well to get through
to win despite being carried left by the bunch late. One to take a positive
view of and follow and wouldn't be a surprise to see him in Group races.
(Rate 75+ on B2yoR figures).
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Baronivici (Pic)
- a pleasant surprise who had grown a lot and come together well since
the yearling sales. Very mentally immature before the race in a negative
sense in that he was unfocussed on the job of being a racehorse and clueless
as to what was expected. Got behind in the race as would be expected but
closed up well in the last furlong as the leading bunch hung off the rails
(presumably with the leaders stalled off the pacemaking). Another to take
an upside view of and ought to be a 70+ rater.
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Bazguy (Pic)
- well that's mucked his handicap mark up by finishing third. Although
the form wasn't strong he'll presumably end up with an Official Rating
over 75. On the plus side the strong perfomance here was a surprise given
his condition before the race although he was always likely to improve
for 6f. He didn't look to be thriving and has scope to improve his overall
condition, fitness and muscling. Might have won here but for hanging left
in the general melee so obviously has a chance to find a 6f maiden but
ought to be able to win off a mark between 75-80 over 7f anyway.
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Artsu (Pic)
- a little bit of a disappointment. Not really developed from the sales
although a still a neat and ready 2yo type but lacking some build. Notably
fit for the day and ran well from a moderate draw. One the trainer ought
to find a suitable race for STO by sending up north but probably not one
to follow beyond that and unlikely to improve a great deal. Probable 59-64
rater.
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Hansinger (Pic)
- another slight disappointment and ideally he would have developed into
the strapping type of his sire (Namid)
that Baronovici has become.. Instead, just above medium size and build
and neatly enough put together but lacking development and fit for the
day (well prepared by Mr Case who has few 2yos). On looks compared to the
group he didn't look likely to win before the race and although finsing
a bit of interference late on he probably would have placed at best. Ought
to be able to rate 60-64 but his trainer needs to find an opportunity soonish.
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Advertisement (Pic)
- exactly as advertised before the race. Small, neat, compact and ready
5f sprinter with no scope to improve. Hasn't seen out 5f that well in his
first two races and didn't see out 6f here even with the rail strip to
help (although he hung off that as he faded in the last furlong). Overhauled
by not just the bigger types but also by the medium sized ones. The trainer
does get more of the 'eternal placers' than average and the discussion
always is whether this shows a good trainer or a less good one. Is he blagging
places with inferior horses that others wouldn't be able to or struggling
to develop a horse's career in tandem with correct placing in suitable
races? Let's see where he turns up next. Back over 5f on a fast track like
Catterick or Musselburgh might be an idea.
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And finally we will take a small interest in a tubby little chap called
Jay Gee Wigmo (Pic).
He has now run two races and been beaten miles in both but on build and
movement he must be better than that. He is still very immature mentally
and certainly doesn't 'want it' yet but we'll track how he progresses.
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