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The Nottingham Maiden looks like being the most interesting and
informative on Wednesday. The race should resolve around whether Let
Us Prey can convert the promise of his debut into a win against some
solid looking necomers. The level of performance of the the other runners
who have run shouldn't be up to winning. That includes Kevin Ryan's Smileforwahile
who owes his second place to skulking around at the back in a moderate
affair last time and plugging on past faders. Hopefully he will help to
increase the prices of the newcomers.
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Let Us Prey made his debut over 5f and amongst the things we have found
out about Hawk Wing's first runners
is that the minimum distance doesn't show them at their best. He got four
lengths behind the leaders at halfway and them had to switch out to get
a run as the race quickened and was keeping on well in the uphill finish.
With hindsight he was only getting pact some moderate runners in Mister
Fips and Creative and the second (Godolphin's Wolgan Valley) has been beaten
in a maiden since. On the plus side he steps up to 6 furlongs and a bit,
is well drawn and Jamie Spencer has taken the trouble to ride. In short,
a solid profile but unlikely to be any particular value at a shorter SP.
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Given that those with experience don't appeal it's good that the debut
horses include three of interest. James Given has a variable record with
2yos and a little below average overall. However, he is a leading 'Show
Or Nothing' trainer where the 2yos are primed to show most of their ability
FTO. He has had 2 winners this year with Tia
Mia well supported for a typical debut success. What happened to La
Chicaluna on debut would be nice to know but after a break she was
ready to place at 33/1 STO before her odds-on win on Monday. The support
for Tia Mia wasn't entirely typical and his debut wins and places can often
be at long odds (going back to a useful filly like Summitville at 25/1
in 2002 for example).
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His runner Indian Days has an
interesting pedigree which is all useful sprint 2yos on his dam side (including
a sibling who won at Listed level). The sire Daylami is seen more as a
stamina influence but he can get 5-6f wins when paired with this sort of
dam. In that context it is probably a good sign he is out this early and
as a yearling he was more the heavily built, more compact speed set-up.
So, an interesting each-way type at the right price and given the trainer
one that ought to be ready to compete.
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The other main newcomer in Quick Release is covered above. Trainer Bryan
Smart had a debut winner at Redcar yesterday in a moderate race which brought
his total to 4 from 16 runners. Until that win (at 12/1 by Mutabayen) the
SPs of his debut runners had been a good incator of their ability and the
12/1 suggests that the overall race was moderate rather than Mutabayen
that useful or ready. His debuts at 6/1 or less have mostly been the winners
and useful early types and those above that level getting less able
with the SP. He runs Easy Target who cost 60,000 guineas and has enough
in his pedgiree to suggest he might be ok but the market may be agood indicator.
This field looks much tougher than the one Mutabayen beat and a soft debut
win unlikely.
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The Kempton Auction race looks typically low quality with the limitation
on sales price. The two obvious runners with reasonable profiles are Classical
Rhythm and Cosmic Art. The
first runs for Jim Boyle who is another younger trainer who has his 2yos
ready to compete to a high level on debut and again, the SPs are often
long and with no correlation to ability. He has also developed a habit
of overtrying his horses and lasy year a number ran in Listed races without
winning in the season. Classical Rhythm made his debut in what ought to
have been one of the toughest maidens of the year so far at Newmarket.
Typically well drilled he raced in thrid past halfway in a large field
before fading to 7th at 100/1. The performance level wasn't that strong
and in 7th he was close to the switchover point for that field between
possible maiden winners and duff stuff of various types. He is moderately
drawn but has shown he can break well and race prominently so present a
sound profile.
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Cosmic Art ran in a moderate race at Lingfield FTO and was in a line of
7 or 8 at the two furlong point and finished 6th. He needs to improve from
that effort and his trainer hasn't had a strong run from a 2yo yet. Not
far behind him at the finish was Ellemujie
who had been 10 lengths off the lead at halfway. In general the strength
of that form is questionable and the most interesting runner to run from
the race is Dalkey Girl.
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Which means that on the evening B2yoR is going along expecting to take
downside view of Cosmic Art and looking at Classical Rhythm to see whether
he convinces as good enough to win and Ellemujie to be a possible surprise
placer. Which just leaves the best of the newcomers which ought to be Eastbourne
for Eve Johnson-Houghton who took over the training licence from her father
this year. In recent years the stable's 2yos compete strongly on debut
if they have ability - they have had 12 individual winners in the last
four years and 4 of the 12 have won FTO and another three have placed.
In a thin field like this a debut winner is quite possible and Eastbourne
looked a solid 2yo type at the sales.
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The Hamilton maiden has a history of high class horses taking part
going back ten years whent he useful Crazee Mental won and in 1999 when
Mark Prescott won with later Listed winner Sarafan. The last five runnings
have been won by useful types with four running in Listed or Group races
at 2yo and the other - Babodana (well you know what he has developed into
as an older horse). The 2005 version had Confidential Lady as the Prescott
runner and she was well backed but found 6f a little short and was third.
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So, somewhere in the six runners this year there ought to be a good one.
However, the lack of a southern raider has made the choice more diffifcult
and none of the runners were seen as yearlings which makes thinks a tad
tricky to say anything useful. The Nicholls runner Binario
Uno (not ridden by his son) ought to be discountable and probably the
second string of Mark Johnston (Casino
Night with Nicholls junior aboard). Mr Johnston has shown hints of
better form recently with his debuts but the best types usually come out
after Royal Ascot in late June. His other runner Double
Attack is by Peintre Celebre who has only ever had one 6f win by a
juvenile in Britain. That was by 8f Group 1 winner Pearl of Love for Johnston
so he did it on pure ability. The dam was a typical 'try them all over
5f' type for Mick Channon but actually needed 7-8f to show her best.
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Well that's half of them removed. Kevin Ryan's runner Moon
Spray is a cheapish breeze-up purchase and this is a rare debut runner
at the course and he hasn't targeted this race before. A regular stable
related jockey isn't on board so perhaps he's just an average one. Karl
Burke has three debut winners last week before a poor one last Friday.
His recent runners in this race have been non winners as juveniles which
might suggest Papillio will be poor value as fovourite. A sketchy bit of
reasoning, granted, but leads to Flying
Sommelier as a possible each-way type [after all, unless you are at
the course and can see the 2yos before the race any reasoning is making
the best of incomplete information]. Mr Barron does get debuts winners
although on the minus side his expensive US purchases have not really performed
as well in recent years. However, something has to win and the trainer
has only run one in the race in recent seasons with the useful Partners
In Jazz a strong second at 16/1.
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At Beverley the ruthless Mark Wallace drops Artdeal
into a claimer two runs after carting Jamie Spencer around in the 'Lily
Agnes'. The trainer presumably feels that this is another Fasliyev
we have seen the best of before mid-summer. It is interesting to look back
at the race he made his debut in - Result
- won by Fat Boy. At the time the winner seemed to have made a pleasing
debut but 5 of the field behind have been entered in sellers or claimers
since and only our firend Bazguy (who looked unready) is still making any
impact outside of that level. A useful reminder of how weak the early season
races can be.
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