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Two divisions of the 6f maiden at Newbury and the race usually contains
at least one useful runner. Last year - Result
- later Group 3 winner Thousand Words was a debut winner for Barry Hills
(and important owner Khalid Abdulla) in a period when he introduced a number
of useful 2yos. The two placed horses were both useful winners at 2yo but
the rest of the field was moderate to put it politely. This mix of useful
types setting off and moderate ones having to start somewhere is fairly
typical. The best runner in the race in recent years was Dubai Destination
but he finished second even with a David Loder preparation to a Gosden
newcomer (ah, John, you wily old fox, too clever by half).
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Te first division looks the stronger and sets an intruiging puzzle. John
Dunlop's Alwaabel passes the 'Debut
Test' rules for being up to winning an open maiden on his debut performance.
He also passed the visual test being a big, strong physical type with acceptable
athleticism. He was too clueless on debut to get into the race until keeping
on quite well to get to sixth. The standard of that race is not that high
and the seventh (Classical Rhythm) was beaten in a moderate Kempton Auction
race yesterday. However, he ran for a ready-on-debut trainer and Alwaabel
will be close to his peak here. He sets a 60+ standard which is stiff for
a newcomer but we have some prospective good ones here and makes the race
very interesting.
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John Gosden in general is an 'easy intro' debut trainer but his does get
runners with his best types and there is some pattern in this. He gets
odd debut wins in May, normally with a fast filly such as Pearl Dance or
Nyramba. He hasn't had the horse to do that this year although we had a
close call with Bastakiya's good second on May 23rd. We are now right at
the start of the two week period when we should be looking for a strong
debut and a probable win. Waldenburg provided it in 2001 and he had a debut
success on June 23rd in 2003. Jalamid won the 7f maiden which comes up
on Friday in 2004 and he also won it last year with useful newcomer Raincoat.
In 2005 later Group 1 winner Nannina went to Pontefract to kick off her
career with a win.
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Which means that the expensive Legal
Eagle (for Princess Haya for whom he gets regular debut wins) presents
a strong profile. He cost €300,00 as a yearling despite having just
an ordinary German female line to his pedigree. His traine rhas only had
three runners in the race since 2001 with two wins to add to the positives.
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Trainer Tom Tate's good record with debut wins has been noted earlier in
the season and so far he has given us a number of inexperienced runners
who have finished 4th at best and one refused to race. However, there are
a number of reasons to believe that Dinarius
will be a strong debut and probably at longer odds. At the sales he looked
a type that should develop well as a 2yo and received a good rating. His
trainer hasn't had a debut run south of Nottingham in the last five years
and and only three runners south of Leicester. His only runner at this
course was a strongly backed second in a Listed race.
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Richard Hannon has been a regular user of this race and has introdcued
some useful types in the race - this is his recent record :-
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2003 = Oro Verde 6th (maiden winner), Man At Arms 13th
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2004 = Councellor 3rd (backed at 5/2), Liquid Lover 10th, Waatheb 11th,
all maidens at season close
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2005 = Mutawajid 2nd (backed at 9/2, ran in Group races later), Newport
Boy 14th,
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2006 = Golden Balls 3rd (9/4, dual winner), Castara Bay 7th
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The placed horses have been at the shorter odds and the moderate runners
at double figure prices. He runs two in each division and the best of the
four should be a useful winner in the season. The First string in division
1 looks to be Ghetto Boy who made a good price as yearling and 2yo given
his pedigree. He should show up well but a place looks the most likely
result given the strength of the opposition.
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To add depth we have a debut from Mick Channon for Jaber Abdullah which
always needs watching out for. The trainer is in a period when he rarely
gets debut wins and the recent FTO runs have been indifferent types. He's
had at least one runner in the race in each of the last four year's with
none reaching a palce and the debut runners minor later winners at best.
Zabeel Tiger wasn't that expensive at the sales given he is a sibling to
two Group 3 winners but looked a solid type although not obviously better
class. Unless the vibe is very strong and it shows with a 9/2 SP or less
it seems likely he'll be an average debut.
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In summary a fascinating race qith a lot of depth and one where Alwaabel
(Captain Esteem is likely
to be short of the required class to compete for the win) setting a good
standard. Legal Eagle might be the better debut for the trainer and the
each-way alternative is Dinarius.
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The second division leaves a less positve feeling and Richard Hannon's
Billion Dollar Kid comes
out on top on profile with a 56 rating (which might not place in the first
division). He looked a typical big, strong type (like Golden Balls &
Mutawajid) that the trainer sets off in this race at the sales. He seems
to have found a weaker division and might be able to win rather than be
another traine rplace int he event. The Gosden debut runner Raven's
Pass looks less likely to be a real good one and probably a more typical
uncompetitive FTO run. Barry Hills runs Good
Gorson who also looks more like the ordinary type rather one of his
star intros in this period.
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The pair with experience come from a Newmarket race which hasn't produced
any strong later runs aside form the winner and Rockfield
Tiger appeared to have no excuse at Haydock STO in a slowly run race.
If they won it would probably indicate the newcomers weren't ready enough
and a below average version of the race. In summary, a more open race with
a lower standard likely to be required to win. A better debut wtill feels
like the best option and Billion Dollar Kid just somes out on top. Paul
Cole has a good record of getting places and odd wins in these 'major track'
maidens and prepares his 2yos bettert han the average for debut. His River
Proud is the each way alternative.
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At Yarmuth the two against the field on profile would be Rapidity
for Eoghan O'Neill and Metal Madness
for Michael Quinlan.
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