British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season Race Preview

British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season

Racing Preview - June 15th

Today's Races

[178] : Chepstow 6:30, 6.1f Novice (4)

[179] : Goodwood 6:20, 6f Maiden (4)

[180] : Sandown 2:10, 5f Maiden (5)

[181] : Sandown 3:15, 7.1f Maiden (4)

[182] : York 2:20, 5f Auction (3)

[183] : York 4:00, 6f Seller (4)

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Trainer :
Paddock Review :	The two divisions of the maiden race at Newbury on Thurday were both interesting with much to learn including (to bang on at this one..) the 'Market' doesn't have a great handle on the potential in these fields. The judgement of the quality of publc form is often unsound as well. Try looking at this 'Virtual Paddock' which has three runners from each division to see whether you can spot the runners from their descriptions. If you can manage 2 or 3 correctly you are already 'seeing' what paddock review of the horses before a race like this can tell you just from a 2-D image. If you can manage to get all six right you should be doing this more often. [Answer in Sunday's Preview].
Ratings :	The Goodwood maiden sees Berbice try to remove his maiden tag at the third attempt. On debut he made a tardy start before cruising intot he race but getting tired in the final furlong and losing. His trainer tried him in the the Listed Woodcote Stakes next time and said "we may be flying a bit high but he is very fast". He ran a very good race in fourth, making ground after halfway and still going forward at the line. That was worth a 70 rating and in the top 20 so far this year. On all evidence he ought to win comfortably with the lack of strong opposition a big factor.. It is interesting to note that he was left in the final entries for the Coventry Stakes (Group 2, 6f) and Windsor Castle (Listed, 5f) at Royal Ascot next Tuesday. Perhaps he may still be a runner if he has an easy time here.The trainer's other entries for the Coventry are Billion Dollar Kid (2nd in the Newbury maiden yesterday), Blues Minor (runs over 5f at Sandown today), and Fat Boy who has been missing since folding too quickly at Ascot in early May in a Conditions event. Aaim For Applause was 10/1 on debut at a time when the trainer hasn't been having strong runs FTO. He got 10 lengths and more behind in a race with a strong pace (from a Johnny Portman runner again..). His 'finish' was made to look better than it was because he was running past stalled runners and not very good ones at that. He doesn't seem likely to be a real competitor for the win. The Hannon 'second string' with Irish Artist has been touted as more of a 7f type and presumably this is a development intro. John Dunlop has shown a typically organised start with his 2yos and the first batch of runners are now into their second outings. Festivale won well STO with Night Skier 5th in the race last Saturday. Alwaabel ran well enough in second yesterday at Newbury and beaten by a better athlete. His runner in this race - Kristal Glory - ought to be a development run either for a 4TO nursery attempt over 8f or his 3yo career over 10f+. He rated poorly on debut and at 14/1 in a moderate race failed the SP rule test. A point of interest is that Mr Portman runs the filly Poppy Dean. He doesn't target 2yo racing strongly normally and his slow build approach normally lead to 3-4TO wins. Something has changed this year and he has more runners and many of the fillies have received market support which hasn't been matched by performance. Zahwah has been the most notable in this regard. Poppy Dean made her debut with Cocabana and looked at least as good an athlete. That one set a bonkers pace at Bath on Sunday (3 lengths and more clear at halfway on concrete going). He used to run his 'better' types at Goodwood so Poppy Dean is one to watch for her potential for a minor future win.
Other :	The 5f fillies' maiden run at Sandown on May 29th was won by Presto Levanter and a typical piece of jockey Richard Hughes 'always up to something' ride. He got winner Presto Levanter over to the rail and then slowed the pace down and sat at the front. This got the field bunched up and he was in the best place to start the sprint to the line late in the race and won comfortably. The slow pace meant that the fillies were not spread out by ability and the form suspect. The 3rd, 7th & 9th have been beaten since and were close up at Sandown. The 6th stepped up to 6f and ran well next time but still beaten by two newcomers. The 8th (Our Kally) runs at Sandown and is obviously one to oppose and the 2nd, 4th and 5th meet again at Leicester on Saturday night so a subject we shall return to.

June 14th Summary :

Sandown stages the first 7f maiden of the year and it is a race with a variable history. It has been won by good 2yos such as Magistretti and Imtiyaz recently but typically the majority of the field will be non winners. In 2005 the 4TO runner Right Again won (having run over 5-6f in early season) and the only winner behind was Hannon's Porters who started at 40/1 and became one of their typical improvers to win STO. Last year John Gosden won with a useful newcomer with Raincoat having also won in 2004 with Jalamid. The - Result - from last year shows that four later winners came from the race and included the three, other than Raincoat, who started at single figure SPs although they finished spread through the field. The other winner was Bobbish who was a classic slow developer for nurseries for Neville Callaghan who always seems to have a plan before his 2yos run.
This year's field has a typical Mark Johnston runner for the Maktoums (Hampstead Heath) and his last two runners in the race have finished 4th and 5th before winning STO. Unless he's really useful (which probably wouldn't show in the SP as it didn;t with Double attack's win at Hamilton on Wednesday) a similar run would be expected. La Voile Rouge looked a solid type at the sales but his trainer is well behind schedule and doesn't do strong debuts anyway.
Which means that unless the rce is so open that a long-shot can win the victor should come from By Command, Strategic Mission, Revivalism or Native Talent. All have positives but none present an unblemished profile. Paul Cole had a strong debut winner yesterday which was typically well prepared and Strategic Mission looked well above average at the sales. It is a slight niggle he starts at 7f when the trainer tends to runt he better ones over 5-6f (Strategic Prince won his debut over 5f last year for example). But he has the most positives overall. By Command is hugely well related, runs for an important owner for John Dunlop for whom the trainer does get FTO wins and it is getting to the stage when a debut win for the handler will come along. However, he looked just an average type when retained at the sales
The 5f race at Sandown looks to be between the Hannon pair of Hold That Call & Blues Minor plus the Michael Jarvis newcomer Saoodah. The others that have run plus the cheaper newcomers would need this to be a below average quality race to win. Hold That Call is interesting because he showed a very good turn of pace on his last run. However, it was Richard Hughes 'at it' again. The horse missed the break from a wide draw at Windsor and the jockey got him to take off into a 3 length lead and cross to the rail. The burst was quite impressive but didn't last very long and he faded before the final furlong and was eased. With Ryan Moore now and given a more conventonal ride he has strong potential to improve. Hughes switches to the Hannon newcomer Blues Minor and he has been entered in some better races. If that was because he's useful rather than the owner wanting a day out then he could figure well in this not particularly strong race.
Michael Jarvis's debut record has been covered int he previews before and his last two runners have produced a strong second and a narrow victory. He has already produced a debut winner with one of Saoodah's siblings and she is well drawn. A very strong profile to compete with the best of the Hannon pair for the win.

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