British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
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Racing Preview - June 17th 
Today's Races
  • [186] : Folkestone 2:50, 6f Maiden (4)
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    Trainer :
    Paddock Review :
  • 'Horses Of The Week' - Trainer Stan Moore's career has come on greatly in recent years and from an observer's viewpoint this seems like fair progress for a decent man and trainer. Now he can spend more money he does like a 'big horse' and can afford to buy some decent ones. When he had less money he bought them as big as he could but they often looked like they had been 'designed by a committee' to use a cliche (but hey, what do you expect for 5k?).
  • He didn't use Newbury much before his upturn in 2005 with just a single run in 2002-4. He uses it more now and his two debut runners in 2006 at the track were winner Traffic Guard (a big, very useful one) and Montalambert (7th in the tough May 6f maiden and a later winner). He ran the promising Dubai Dynamo in that May maiden this year on STO and he has won well since at Goodwood.
  • He had a runner in each division of the Newbury maiden last Thursday and both were likeable, bigger types with sound athleticism. They were both also mentally immature, a little gormless and not strongly fit. However, they both looked like horses capable of maiden wins and developing with racing in Mr Moore's style. They were Ezthegezza & Jasmine's Hero (who travelled well in the race past halfway before getting baulked at a bad time). 
  • Newbury 'Virtual Paddock' answer = Top Left (Rockfield Tiger, description 'e'); Top Middle (Captain Esteem, d); Top Right (Proud River, f); Bottom Left (Zabeel Tiger, b); Bottom Middle (Midships, a); Bottom Right (Excape, c).
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      June 16th Summary : 
     
    • One race at Folkestone and although a Class 4 level and good prize money by the course standards not a strong field on profile. Archived runs for a trainer who has his 2yos mostly ready FTO and ran a solid second at the course on debut. The win of Bosun Breese over 5f last week is slightly puzzling because he looked in excellent shape but ran a moderate race when in fourth behind Archived and fading in the last furlong. He was returning after a break and probably improved for the drop in trip at Sandown rather than particularly boosting the value of the Folkestone Auction race. In paddock review Archived was small and not particularly well put together along with a languid attitude that didn't match his professional display. He isn't likely to improve much and sets a low standard. His trainer is very relaible and gets these sorts well prepared but backing horses that look like him unless you know the opposition is worse is normally a negative ploy.
    • Sandy Par also runs for a 'ready on debut' trainer and typically made a place FTO in a race with a strong pace at Chepstow. His form is a classic example of looking ok or moderate depending which way you look at it. In front of him were two horses who have both won since and he was third to them so that must be ok? Look behind him and you have the errant Casla Beag (who looked pretty small and limited at Bath yesterday when held up on easier going) and a the rest are likely to be claimer and seller types. Which means that with a pace strong enough to split the field by ability bands he is on the break point between 'ok plus' and not ok. He only cost 7,000 guineas but on the plus side his dam has produced two solid 2yo winners. He isn't likely to improve much either but hasn't been paddock reviewed to compare to Archived.
    • Maybe I Wont is another smaller model but a slightly better type than Archived and seemed to achieve a little more when third at Windsor last time. He had the advantage of a rail run there and both of the placing 'closers' came via that route. He makes a little appeal to be the best of those with form but that is lessened by his trainer being Simon Dow. In the last six season he has had 3 individual winners from 32 runners .In four of the seasons he has had no winner including the last three. He has said in interview that he sees 2yo racing more as development than being particularly important in it's own right (at one point he seemed to go 'West Coast' and start alluding to mental wellbeing and it's importance). Whatever, trusting his 2yos to win is a white-knuckle-ride and the price needs to have a fair bit of uncertainty padding.
    • With the best of those with form likely to set a 46-53 level just an average newcomer performance for some trainer's could win. To get some information value out of the race let us set ourselves a target of trying to estimate what type trainer O'Neill's All That Brass is, a newcomer for his employer John Fretwell. He cost 36,000 guineas and is by a good 2yo sire in Compton Place. His dam was a cheap purchase and not by a sprint sire but proved an average sprint maiden winner at 2yo. Her previous two foals had been poor runners over 5-6f as juveniles. A pedigree that could certainly produce a type capable of winning this FTO if a 50+ level is what is required. When he walks into the pre-parade ring it will be apparent if he's good enough and easy to compare him to Archived. What SP he is likely to be at and whether he drifts or not will be visible.
    • Beforehand let us look to Mr O'Neill's record to see what can be usefully learned. Since he started as trainer at Mr Fretwell's training establishment he has always looked to be a thorough trainer who has an overall plan for his 2yo group and knows before a certain one runs where they are likely to fit and what their race schedule is likely to be. This, along with good evidence that his 2yos give a real indication of their ability on debut means that it can be fruitful to study his past record with debuts. The table at the bottom of the preview gives details of his debuts runs for the years 2005 (left), 2006 (middle) & 2007 (right, up to date) laid out in chronlogical order. The collour coding is :-
    • DARK GREEN = Debut Winner; LIGHT GREEN = Later maiden winner; YELLOW = placed form up to maiden winner level; SAND = Placed form below maiden winner level; RED = Unplaced form on all runs; PURPLE = Seller winner or placer; WHITE = Only ran once.
    • As with other data presentations on the B2yoR site this set-out allows for patterns to be identified if they exist. Mr O'Neill had a goos 2005 and a less good group in 2006 and the amount of green and red clearly shows this. In each season 2005-6 there is a clear pattern of Mr O'Neill identifying the likely winners and running them by June or early July. In 2005 all his season winners had made a start by July 7th and the later placers were partly due to his thorough preparation and they struggled to win. With a less good group in 2006 the mis of greens and yeallow for winners and placer-strugglers starts earlier and only the very use Medicine Path won until a couple of later season wins in weak 7-8f events.
    • The amount of dark green shows his preparation at home off well. Of his 23 2yo winners in 2005-6 as many as 10 have won on debut (over 43%). Only 7 have failed to place on debut including two of his earliest debuts in 2005 (which he seems to have fixed by later starts 2006-7). 3 of the seven were over 7-8f and his later debuts over longer distances seem less 'reliable' that the 5-6f ones for the precocious types. If you sort the tables below by rating (Estimate) on debut rather than date then the pre-debut work and readiness shows up even more clearly. 19 of the debuts have rated 50+ and think on that int he context of what we think Archived and friends can do. Those that rated below were the early 2005 debuts plus an inexperienced early debut over 7.5f by developer Under My Thumb (best at 10f at 2yo). 
    • In both 2005 (especially) and 2006 there is evidence of him 'batching' up debuts and the patches of FTO wins shows up. He has alreayd shown the same trait in 2007 with two newcomer victories in 2 days at the end of May (followed by a punt on the disappointing Sparton Duke two days later - he seems to be a short runner with pace and probably shows up well at home but looks awful in the last furlong in a 5f race at the track). Victorian Bounty's 4th of 5 in a Novice event at the end of that batch should probably have been a better debut but he hung right and didn't look comfortable on the track. Taken to flat Musselburgh he looked a different athlete for a STO win.
    • If you sort the tables by debut SP rather than date the results are mixed and other than the really good ones (like Vital Equine & Medicine Path) the debut winners are spread from 5/1 to 22/1 and the later useful winners out to 40/1. He gets a lot of SPs in the 5/1 to 14/1 range and the real ability of the horses doesn't match it that well. Another hint that 'have a look in the market' is usually a pretty empty prompt in 'Spotlight' comment and "I don't know either" could be substituted.
    • Looking at 2007 how is he doing? He gave us the early seller winner but then a couple of uncompetitive ones (both unplaced STO and suggesting their, unexcused, poor debuts were probably what they were) which he hasn't in previous years. Which suggests he may not have had much early. The better ones appeared in a batch of four end-May to early June and then a gap until Rapidity ran poorly at Yarmouth in the week. He might have had an excuse because of soft ground but we don't know that yet and he may just have been a poor one. However, that was his ninth 2yo runner of the season at a roughly comparable time to the last two seasons. The next batch after that (mid June in 2005 and a little later in 2006) where competitive 2yos with a group of debuts wins with better types in 2005 and solid runs by placers (all he had) in 2006.
    • Put all of this together and what about All That Brass? Ought to be a competitive 2yo probably and will be ready enough to show what he has here. If he's any good a standard trainer preparation would get him competing for a place at least. The SP may well not be that informative unless he's a good one and contracts below 4/1 (say). Which is the context which B2yoR will be taking for the paddock review on the day.
    Stratham 04/04/2005 YARM 5.2 M 7/8 12 30
    Christa Bee 25/04/2005 SWEL 5 Auc 1/8 14 57
    Memphis Man 29/04/2005 EDIN 5 M 1/7 8 61
    Goodbye Girl 06/05/2005 NOTT 5.1 Mf x10/13 9 45
    Campbeltown 07/05/2005 BVLY 5 M 7/13 5 31
    Coronilla 09/05/2005 WTON 5.1 Acf x11/13 16 6
    Always Hopeful 29/05/2005 NMKT 5 M 2/12 10 69
    Chilsdown 04/06/2005 HYDK 5 M 7/10 8.5 41
    Pickett 09/06/2005 WTON 6 M 8/13 40 51
    Billich 10/06/2005 GDWD 6 M 5/7 1.2 62
    Satisfaction 13/06/2005 THSK 7 M 6/9 28 54
    Escape Plan 15/06/2005 HTON 6 M 1/7 16 64
    Under My Thumb 16/06/2005 BVLY 7.5 Auc 7/11 14 48
    Silent Times 18/06/2005 AYR 7.2 M 2/8 9 68
    Past Tender 18/06/2005 WWCK 5 Auc 1/7 16 62
    Champara 21/06/2005 BTON 6 Auc 1/6 4 68
    Sky At Night 03/07/2005 BTON 7 Auc 7/7 10 42
    Creative Mind 06/07/2005 CARL 6.9 Mf 2/7 6 61
    The Bard Song 07/07/2005 FOLK 7 M 4/10 14 60
    Santerno 11/07/2005 WTON 6 Auc 2/12 4.5 42
    Chadlington 04/08/2005 FOLK 7 M 9/13 3 42
    Patavium 04/08/2005 YARM 8 Auc 2/15 5.5 70
    Dancers Of Kerry 07/08/2005 LNGA 8 Auc x10/12 12 15
    Moonlight Music 26/08/2005 NMKJ 7 Mf 2/12 7 72
    Roscommon 06/09/2005 CATT 6 Auc 1/10 4.5 59
    Hard To Explain 26/09/2005 HTON 8.3 M 3/7 7 63
    Mortarboard 08/10/2005 YORK 8 M 2/20 6.5 69
    Parazone 29/10/2005 SWEL 8 M x10/13 20 26

     
    Mood Music 25/04/2006 BATH 5 Auc 2/12 7.5 61
    Cadeaux Du Monde 10/05/2006 RIPN 6 M 9/13 6 24
    Vital Equine 10/05/2006 NEWC 6 M 1/17 4 69
    Grand Lucre 13/05/2006 NMKT 5 Mf 7/9 12 35
    Gold Spirit 15/05/2006 RDCR 5 M 6/10 3.5 43
    Great Explorer 01/06/2006 YARM 6 M 6/15 10 46
    Danger Alley 03/06/2006 FOLK 6 Auc 8/10 16 13
    Strathmore 05/06/2006 CARL 5 M 7/10 9 24
    Princess Iris 07/06/2006 NOTT 5.1 Mf 1/9 22 65
    Laureldean Express 28/06/2006 KTNA 6 Mf 3/9 6 56
    Iron Fist 01/07/2006 NMKJ 7 M 6/11 12 50
    Queen Noverre 01/07/2006 WTON 6 Mf 2/8 5 65
    Beech Games 13/07/2006 WTON 7.1 Nov 4/6 10 52
    Medicine Path 14/07/2006 YORK 7 M 1/9 3.5 80
    Quiddity 20/07/2006 WTON 6 Nov 3/7 6 41
    Annual Event 27/07/2006 YORK 7 Auc 6/11 3 30
    Hurricane Flyer 05/08/2006 THSK 5 M 2/8 6.5 59
    Tawnybrack 09/08/2006 NEWC 6 M 4/13 3.5 44
    Sonovishi 12/08/2006 LNGA 8 M 6/11 16 40
    Montjeu's Melody 13/08/2006 RDCR 7 Mf 9/13 16 27
    Wishing On A Star 25/08/2006 NMKJ 7 Mf 4/14 33 63
    Divine Love 28/08/2006 CHEP 8.1 Mf 8/11 11 36
    Clarricien 28/08/2006 CHEP 8.1 Mcg 7/13 33 50
    Irish Poet 28/08/2006 CHEP 8.1 Mcg x11/13 16 0
    Itchycoo Park 28/08/2006 WWCK 7.1 Auc 5/11 16 35
    Peintre's Wonder 05/09/2006 LEIC 8.3 Mf 8/14 22 31
    Tykie Two 11/09/2006 FOLK 6 Auc 8/10 14 22
    Classic Blue 18/09/2006 FOLK 7 Auc x11/12 9 9
    Isabella's Best 18/09/2006 FOLK 7 Auc x10/12 25 18
    Graceful Steps 20/09/2006 RDCR 7 M 9/10 14 0
    Butlers Best 23/09/2006 HYDK 8.1 Mcg x10/14 33 15
    Puissant Princess 26/09/2006 NOTT 8.2 Mf 7/11 6 36
    Wise Decision 06/10/2006 LNGA 7 M x11/11 10 0
    Victorian Prince 07/10/2006 YORK 8 M 1/13 12 58
    Little Rutland 20/10/2006 LNGA 7 Mcg x10/10 50 1
    Anne Bonney 23/10/2006 LNGA 8 M 6/10 4.5 38
    Echostar 21/04/2007 THSK 5 Clm 3/6 5 31
    New Colossus 11/05/2007 HTON 5 M 7/9 2.75 34
    Shannersburg 12/05/2007 ASCT 5 M 9/11 16 31
    Khana Ras 12/05/2007 WWCK 5.5 Auc 8/13 11 29
    Yasinisi 29/05/2007 RDCR 6 Mf 1/10 5 55
    Ellmau 30/05/2007 SWEL 6 Auc 1/11 7 52
    Sparton Duke 01/06/2007 GDWD 6 M 9/12 4 27
    Victorian Bounty 03/06/2007 BTON 6 Nov 4/5 9 29
    Rapidity 14/06/2007 YARM 6 Auc 6/12 5.5 12

     
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