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The soft and heavy going at present has made the 2yo events less predictable
in the short term with a 33/1 debut winner at Brighton yesterday. A 22/1
FTO win at Newbury was avoided by the 'winner' being disqualified for leaning
on the second (perhaps you don't have to rope lassoo the other horse and
wrangle them to the ground to get chucked out these days after all). They
were a moderate group of fillies in that aution event and Edge Of Gold
was a typically fir on debut type for Bryn Palling. There isn't much of
her (picture)
and there is unlikely to be any improvement and not a race to expect much
future significance from. The promoted winner - Geestring
- is a much bigger frame but leggy and lightly made and presumably will
step up to 7f+ in nurseries (which start on Sunday at Windsor). She, literally,
stood out in the group as the best type and 5/1 a good price. There was
support for the other Hannon filly (Tina's
Best) but she was another small and unprepossessing one in the general
group and not mentally ready. Difficult to find one to follow in the group
but Bikini,
although another lightly made one, would be worth giving one chance to
if she ends up in a moderate fillies' race next time.
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The 7f maiden for fillies produced John Dunlop's first debut winner of
the year, for Hamdan Al Maktoum of course, in the same race he did it last
year. That winner was Sudoor who went on to win at Listed level. He ran
two for Hamdan this time and the second string won (not particularly unusual)
although only at 5/1 given the 6 withdrawals and limited depth of quality
on the race. Although rather plain Muthabara
was obviously the better of the Hamdan pair and it asks the question why
Richard Hills was on Sayedati
Elhasna. Muthabara was slightly bigger in frame, less narrow behind,
more muscular and fitter. If you look at the picture you can see the muscle
defintion lines around the loins and buttocks. Mr Dunlop doesn't leave
them short of work and fitness before they run, just nous.
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More easy ground at Salisbury for the 5f maiden fillies' race which is
much more interesting than the 'Drastic
Measure STO win attempt' billing would suggest. That filly ran well
enough on debut in soft ground but it was a moderate race and performance
and she isn't that big. Unlike, for example, Mazzanti at Musselburgh on
Monday she has less solid form and more strength in opposition and finding
a reasonably priced alternative would be a sound approach. A developing
'rule' so far this year has been to avoid Hawk Wing's 2yos over 5f. The
limited evidence has shown they improve for 6f+ and that suggests adding
Flying Indian to the 'opposable'
list. She drops to 5f after fading last on over 6f at Lingfield last time.
It's possible she faded more because she was chasing a useful 2yo (Strike
The Deal) too hard in mid-race that failing to stay. Which means you are
into the each-way options and several make some appeal.
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Clive Cox is in a period when he often debuts some of his better 2yos and
his preparation means they can win FTO. He has already had a debut win
this year with Highland Daughter in the same race he won in 2006 with a
newcomer. He won this Salisbury race in 2005 with a newcomer (Fisola) and
runs Amylee here who has a good pedigree
and was 'cheap' at €90,000 given, for example, her first sibling cost
500,000 guineas (a minor maiden winner at 3yo). Anyway, she present a reasonable
each-way alternative. At likely longer odds would be Cocabana
who showed too much pace on firmer ground last time and faded. Her trainer,
Johnny Portman, has a set of what look to be usable fillies in minor auction
races and lower level races but hasn't found a race for them to win yet.
If she is held up and handles the ground she is better than her odds are
likely to show.
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Of the others, as ever, one of the Hannon pair, should improve enough to
compete for the places but Don't Tell Anna didn't do much on debut and
was behind Cocabana. Katrina Bee's profile is below average as well. Barry
Hills runs Royal Confidence who is the second foal of a filly who won a
Group 2 for him having finished second at this course on debut in early
May. You presume that if she had been showing up well she would have been
out earlier in year and overall she seems likely to be an ordinary first
timer.
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The two Kempton races don't have the soft ground issue but don't seem much
less tricky for that. John Hills is a trainer on the B2yoR list to avoid
and when he has winners it is time to shrug and console yourself with the
thought that he didn't know it was going to succeed either. Primed
And Poised has been dodging engagements for some time (often a trait
that goes together with below average training records) having missed the
Newbury auction event yesterday. Her form is moderate and she is definitely
one to oppose. As a general point it is worth noting that she is by the
US sire More Than Ready who, while he gets fast horses, seems to get some
which cruise ok but lack a real change of pace. Primed And Poised is narrow
and light behind and there ought to be something in the field with more
'finish' to them.
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However, those that have run have moderate form too. It would need a notable
improvement from one of them to beat Primed And Posied if she runs to her
late 40s estimate level. The most likely to is Mark Johnston's Chatham
Islands who faded after attending the pace on debut on a stiff track.
She steps up to 6f on an easier track and makes appeal as being better
than her odds. The obvious newcomer of interest is the hugely well related
Altitude for Mark Prescott and
Miss Rausing. If she is a future 7-8f Group performer at 2yo then she ought
to be 2/1 or less here and could win given the lowish standard. Overall,
she seems more likely to be a development debut but, in this instance,
a check of the market will be useful.
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In the 7f maiden the performance level is intot he mid-50s and probably
sets just too stiff a standard for the best of the newcomers. That ought
to be Doctor Robert who has
a lot of positives in his profile and received and above average sales
report. His stall 1 draw and the fact his trainer tends to get debut wins
with his very best 2yos suggest a place would be a good initial effort
here from him. Which means the best of those with runs set a good standard
and Kyrie Eleison showed enough
at Newbury in the paddock review and the race to suggest he can runt ot
he 54-6 range here. La Voile Rouge
is the first test of the Sandown maiden won by Firestreak and it often
turns out to be an 'empty' race for future winners. However, he oloked
well bought at the sales and a likeable type so it will be interesting
to see him at the track to see how he has developed. The other improver
who is well drawn and can compete for a place at longer odds would be Seeking
The Star.
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