British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - June 28th 
Today's Races
  • [229] : Hamilton 7:30, 6f Maiden (5)
  • [230] : Leicester 8:45, 6f Auction (5)
  • [231] : Newcastle 2:30, 6f Auction (5)
  • [232] : Newcastle 3:00, 6f Novice (5)
  • [233] : Warwick 2:20, 5f Maiden (5)
  • [234] : Yarmouth 2:10, 6f Maiden (6)

  • Checkout
    Trainer :
  • Trainer Mark Johnston said in interview in June 2002 - 
  • "On Wednesday, when the ground at Kempton, Beverley and Newcastle changed dramatically [to G/S or Soft], we had five runners finish right out the back. This obviously worried me [before the Derby] and made me start looking for reasons but it is not all that uncommon for my stable. We do have our soft-ground specialists but the free-running style of our average [at any form level] inmate is not suited by very soft ground. My horses are NOT trained to settle-and-quicken and it does seem that this can be a disadvantage on soft ground.
  • Horses who are used to being held up behind a slow pace may conserve more energy under testing conditions. If a horse is not used to these tactics it is no use trying to employ them on the day. I do not believe in having my horses held under restraint in a race and this often results in us front-running or lying up with the pace, even if that is not our aim. This obviously works for us but it would be interesting to compare the performance of my yard on soft ground against fast conditions"
  • Looking at his Strike rate on different going in the period 2002-6 with his 2yos gives this breakdown :-
  • Firm (13-44) 29.5%;  FGF (11-36) 30.6%;  GFF (19-91) 20.9%;  GF (54-264) 20.5%;  GFG (21-89) 23.6%;  GGF (17-79) 21.5%.
  • Good (32-140) 22.9%
  • Good (GS) (15-85) 17.6%;  GSG (6-45) 13.3%;  GS (17-104) 16.3%;  GSS (8-40) 20%;  SGS (4-37) 10.8%;
  • Soft (10-88) 11.4%;  SHV (4-22) 18.2%;  HVS (1-9) 11.1%;  HV (4-40) 10%.
  • Some supporting evidence in there to consider in the current wet spell. It is interesting to note that he has a good 2yos-on-debut Strike Rate at a number of courses with uphill finishes which, instinctively, might seem unhelpful to his free runners. In 2002-6 he was 7-33 at Hamilton (21%), 4-19 at Leicester (21%), 4-20 at Beverley (20%) & 3-8 (38%) at Carlisle for example. The first two courses have downhill first halves of the course which might help and perhaps the climbs stop his runners over-doing it. It is also possible that it depends on the quality of runners he sends to courses though. You could pick out a selection of flat courses where his FTO success is very poor (Haydock, Doncaster, Warwick, Yarmouth for e.g.) but he has a good record at Thirsk. 
  • Paddock Review :
    Ratings :
    Other :
  • At  Leicester Michael Bell has replaced Hayley Turner with Jamie Spencer on the unco-operative Ink Spot who has plugged on grudgingly into second on easier going on his last two runs. He was backed to favourite on debut but soon disappeared out the back and the whackings doled out on his next two runs suggest he doesn't really 'want it'. His latest second was by default in that the remainder of the field was poor and he couldn't really avoid it.
  • It will be interesting to see whether the quiet approach of Spencer has any effect or whether he will have to 'get busy' as well. In general he seems to prefer to pose behind midfield and come with a late run which looks fine when it works but poor when it doesn't. For example, given the ability Silver Guest has shown since he was beaten a short head with Spencer on board STO at this course a little more activity early in the race would surely have won that day. Anyway, Ink Spot has more ability than he has shown but not a profile to support. In Honour has a much better profile and has good prospects to improve for 6f.

  •   June 28th Summary : 
     
    • Some interesting races yesterday and you could take two rough themes as 'Size [often] matters' and 'The market only knows up to a point'. At Carlisle the smaller Nawaaff was beaten as favourite again and on the TV they show a replay of his Goodwood run and how he struggled to beat the newcomer Captain Esteem (well beaten twice since). Put those two facts together and if you had backed him you would have known you were in trouble if there were 'anything' with a bit of size amongst the newcomers. As it happens Patrick Haslam ran Choose Your Moment (up to £75,000 as a 2yo from retained for 20,000 guineas and even on the TV a bigger horse and just plain better. He showed a bit of inexperience but won anyway. 
    • A third theme might be that you need to be flexible because trainers do change their approach at times. Until 2002 Mr Haslam didn't do much with 2yos and hadn't had a debut winner in a decade but then got some extra owners and got debut wins with high class horses at long odds. He then had a lull in 2005-6 but has come back with a good set of 2yos this year and two debut winners.
    • In the other Carlisle race the small Brixworth Scribe got left behind as the bigger Liberty Ship went clear into the last furlong but that one then hung violently right (as he did on debut when he probably threw that race away) and gave another one back. The smaller horse showed good professionalism to get up late on. Other things being equal the bigger horse will usually win in 2yo races but cant hide the real cracks.
    • At Salisbury the small Drastic Measure got predictably beaten as favourite by a range of others. Bryn Palling had a 22/1 debut winner taken away at Newbury the previous day so won this one instead with a related horse at 25/1. The market often doesn't know much beyond what is likely and even with a concrete example from less than 24 hours prior the fact it was 'Bryn Palling' and not some 'top stable'  meant the odds were wrong again. Mr Palling is one of a range of trainers who get their 2yos fit and professional on debut but doesn't have a high profile and doesn't bet. These types regularly get longer priced winners and often return profits for backing every debut. [A system to work up for the 2008 season].
    • The favourite was also beaten at Bath and to complete the day they were both beaten at Kempton. The reverse of Mr Palling is someone like Michael Stoute and his 2yos are regularly at too short a price. Determind Stand is a pretty ordinary horse and shouldn't have ended up as volunteer favourite in the 7f maiden. In the photo you'll see a smaller type who is young and not really facing up to the challenge ahead. Compare him to the much bigger (there's a thread here...) La Voile Rouge. As well as more size he has a mature, combative attitude. So he's 9/1 and the mouse is 7/2f favourite , which would you wnat to be with?
    • The fillies in the Kempton maiden were a moderate lot and despite her featherweight frame favourite Primed And Poised was in such good heart and consition you could almost imagine her succeeding. Then you remind yourself it's John Hills training and she's skinny and that 'something' will beat her. Not easy to find and Eva's Request could do with eating some more pies but still that much bigger than the favourite. Chatham Islands was the biggest of the fillies and disappointment in fourth while the withdrawn Hannon runner Get Jealous was a similar standard to Eva's Request and might well have pushed the favourite back to third had she run (withdrawn at the post on vet's advice).
    • Thursday's most interesting event is the Novice race at Newcastle. Eternal Luck was an untypical debut winner for Michael Jarvis in some ways. He usually gets his better types fit and mentally tuned FTO and they can often show a fizzy attitude because of it. With this preparation they can often win by wide margins and look obvious types to run in Group races. Eternal Luck is a barrel build and didn't look that fit on debut and also looked laid back and a bit 'green'. He won a messy race by a short distance on sheer ability and not looking the finished article (like Sabbeeh, Punctilious, Cartography, Alderney, etc..). 
    • Mr Jarvis often runs his debut winners in Listed+ races STO so why is Eternal Luck here? Isn't he thought good enough and perhaps more of a Nursery type? Or does he need more experience before going on to something like the Sirenia Stakes? The trainer has had 23 debut winners in the last 5 seasons and only 3 have won their next race (4 of the 23 only ran once as 2yos). His record with STO runners in Listed+ races is 1win, 3 places and 6 unplaced. In lesser races it is 2 wins, 5 places and 2 unplaced. His runners don't have a good record of coming back to win after they are beaten either. Mr Jarvis' choise of races and having his runners close to their peaks FTO may well play some part.
    • If we compare him to Mark Prescott, who has a good record of multiple wins, then a difference shows. He has had 8 debut winners and 7 have run again as 2yos. 3 of the 7 won STO  and all also won their third races. Two of those that failed won 3TO including Comic Strip who won his next four starts after his STO defeat. If you left out the 20/1 surprise debut winner (Alter Ego in 2002 who wasn't very good) the other debut winners developed well from their FTO run. The same pattern has shown up this year with Starlit Sands winning her first two races and just getting beaten next time int he Queen Mary. His 33/1 surprise debut winner was uncompetitive next time. Mr Jarvis seems to wind them up for debut and they often don't progress while Mr Prescott seems to have the first three runs planned before they start.
    • At Windsor B2yoR formed a positive opinion of Eternal Luck as one to follow next time and this seems to be a good development opportunity and not typical for Mr Jarvis. If he has developed his fitness and mental side from debut he should improve well and set a good standard in the mid 60s here. Of the opposition we don't know how good Mahusay is because he won a moderate race in a slow time on soft. Lieutenant Pigeon looked short of the required class when well beaten at Epsom and Montaquila was very disappointing at Ayr and his debut form (behinf Nawaaff) looks suspect. Which means that Pelican Prince ought to provide the best alternative but most interesting to see if Eternal Luck can show more development thatn the average for a trainer 2yo.
    • At Yarmouth, prior to the Newcastle race, Artsu looks to have a very good opportunity to fulfil the promise he showed behind Eternal Luck. Unlike that horse he looked fit and mentaly sharp on debut and raced up with the pace from a poor draw and only dropped backed from the frontline of the bunch late on. He isn't likely to improve much but aided by a less than solid set of opponents he is clear on profile. The most interesting of the others are Race For The Moon and Vive Les Rouges. The first was a relatively short SP for a trainer debut in a solid Newmarket race and pressed the pace after recovering from being aqueezed out after the break. He appeals as a likely longer priced improver. Trainer Chris Wall has found a niche in racing and does the same thing with his 2yos each year, similar number of runners, similar results, all very cosy. In late June or into July each year he starts out his better fillies if he has them and they occasionally win first time although typically they need to develop from debut. Given that he has only run one (very poor individual) to date we should be looking out for the usable ones in his upcoming debuts.
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