-
Some interesting races yesterday and you could take two rough themes as
'Size [often] matters' and 'The market only knows up to a point'. At Carlisle
the smaller Nawaaff was beaten as favourite again and on the TV they show
a replay of his Goodwood run and how he struggled to beat the newcomer
Captain Esteem (well beaten twice since). Put those two facts together
and if you had backed him you would have known you were in trouble if there
were 'anything' with a bit of size amongst the newcomers. As it happens
Patrick Haslam ran Choose Your Moment (up to £75,000 as a 2yo from
retained for 20,000 guineas and even on the TV a bigger horse and just
plain better. He showed a bit of inexperience but won anyway.
-
A third theme might be that you need to be flexible because trainers do
change their approach at times. Until 2002 Mr Haslam didn't do much with
2yos and hadn't had a debut winner in a decade but then got some extra
owners and got debut wins with high class horses at long odds. He then
had a lull in 2005-6 but has come back with a good set of 2yos this year
and two debut winners.
-
In the other Carlisle race the small Brixworth Scribe got left behind as
the bigger Liberty Ship went clear into the last furlong but that one then
hung violently right (as he did on debut when he probably threw that race
away) and gave another one back. The smaller horse showed good professionalism
to get up late on. Other things being equal the bigger horse will usually
win in 2yo races but cant hide the real cracks.
-
At Salisbury the small Drastic Measure got predictably beaten as favourite
by a range of others. Bryn Palling had a 22/1 debut winner taken away at
Newbury the previous day so won this one instead with a related horse at
25/1. The market often doesn't know much beyond what is likely and even
with a concrete example from less than 24 hours prior the fact it was 'Bryn
Palling' and not some 'top stable' meant the odds were wrong again.
Mr Palling is one of a range of trainers who get their 2yos fit and professional
on debut but doesn't have a high profile and doesn't bet. These types regularly
get longer priced winners and often return profits for backing every debut.
[A system to work up for the 2008 season].
-
The favourite was also beaten at Bath and to complete the day they were
both beaten at Kempton. The reverse of Mr Palling is someone like Michael
Stoute and his 2yos are regularly at too short a price. Determind
Stand is a pretty ordinary horse and shouldn't have ended up as volunteer
favourite in the 7f maiden. In the photo you'll see a smaller type who
is young and not really facing up to the challenge ahead. Compare him to
the much bigger (there's a thread here...) La
Voile Rouge. As well as more size he has a mature, combative attitude.
So he's 9/1 and the mouse is 7/2f favourite , which would you wnat to be
with?
-
The fillies in the Kempton maiden were a moderate lot and despite her featherweight
frame favourite Primed
And Poised was in such good heart and consition you could almost imagine
her succeeding. Then you remind yourself it's John Hills training and she's
skinny and that 'something' will beat her. Not easy to find and Eva's
Request could do with eating some more pies but still that much bigger
than the favourite. Chatham
Islands was the biggest of the fillies and disappointment in fourth
while the withdrawn Hannon runner Get
Jealous was a similar standard to Eva's Request and might well have
pushed the favourite back to third had she run (withdrawn at the post on
vet's advice).
-
Thursday's most interesting event is the Novice race at Newcastle.
Eternal Luck was an untypical
debut winner for Michael Jarvis in some ways. He usually gets his better
types fit and mentally tuned FTO and they can often show a fizzy attitude
because of it. With this preparation they can often win by wide margins
and look obvious types to run in Group races. Eternal Luck is a barrel
build and didn't look that fit on debut and also looked laid back and a
bit 'green'. He won a messy race by a short distance on sheer ability and
not looking the finished article (like Sabbeeh, Punctilious, Cartography,
Alderney, etc..).
-
Mr Jarvis often runs his debut winners in Listed+ races STO so why is Eternal
Luck here? Isn't he thought good enough and perhaps more of a Nursery type?
Or does he need more experience before going on to something like the Sirenia
Stakes? The trainer has had 23 debut winners in the last 5 seasons and
only 3 have won their next race (4 of the 23 only ran once as 2yos). His
record with STO runners in Listed+ races is 1win, 3 places and 6 unplaced.
In lesser races it is 2 wins, 5 places and 2 unplaced. His runners don't
have a good record of coming back to win after they are beaten either.
Mr Jarvis' choise of races and having his runners close to their peaks
FTO may well play some part.
-
If we compare him to Mark Prescott, who has a good record of multiple wins,
then a difference shows. He has had 8 debut winners and 7 have run again
as 2yos. 3 of the 7 won STO and all also won their third races. Two
of those that failed won 3TO including Comic Strip who won his next four
starts after his STO defeat. If you left out the 20/1 surprise debut winner
(Alter Ego in 2002 who wasn't very good) the other debut winners developed
well from their FTO run. The same pattern has shown up this year with Starlit
Sands winning her first two races and just getting beaten next time int
he Queen Mary. His 33/1 surprise debut winner was uncompetitive next time.
Mr Jarvis seems to wind them up for debut and they often don't progress
while Mr Prescott seems to have the first three runs planned before they
start.
-
At Windsor B2yoR formed a positive opinion of Eternal Luck as one to follow
next time and this seems to be a good development opportunity and not typical
for Mr Jarvis. If he has developed his fitness and mental side from debut
he should improve well and set a good standard in the mid 60s here. Of
the opposition we don't know how good Mahusay is because he won a moderate
race in a slow time on soft. Lieutenant Pigeon looked short of the required
class when well beaten at Epsom and Montaquila was very disappointing at
Ayr and his debut form (behinf Nawaaff) looks suspect. Which means that
Pelican Prince ought to provide the best alternative but most interesting
to see if Eternal Luck can show more development thatn the average for
a trainer 2yo.
-
At Yarmouth, prior to the Newcastle race, Artsu looks to have a very good
opportunity to fulfil the promise he showed behind Eternal Luck. Unlike
that horse he looked fit and mentaly sharp on debut and raced up with the
pace from a poor draw and only dropped backed from the frontline of the
bunch late on. He isn't likely to improve much but aided by a less than
solid set of opponents he is clear on profile. The most interesting of
the others are Race For The Moon and Vive Les Rouges. The first was a relatively
short SP for a trainer debut in a solid Newmarket race and pressed the
pace after recovering from being aqueezed out after the break. He appeals
as a likely longer priced improver. Trainer Chris Wall has found a niche
in racing and does the same thing with his 2yos each year, similar number
of runners, similar results, all very cosy. In late June or into July each
year he starts out his better fillies if he has them and they occasionally
win first time although typically they need to develop from debut. Given
that he has only run one (very poor individual) to date we should be looking
out for the usable ones in his upcoming debuts.
|
