-
The first nursery of the season in run on Sunday at Windsor and they will
make up around 20% of the juvenile races from now until the end of the
turf season. When the Nursery races first start the British Horseracing
Board's handicapper for 2yos racing does not reveal the absolute ratings
that each horse has been allotted. The relative weight differences between
the horses is apparent of course and in trying to bring about competitive
racing this is what matters. The absolute ratings will matter once known
in terms of Race Class. The Windsor event is nominally a 'Class 5' nursery
which in later season will usually be limited to horses up to an Official
Rating of 75. If you don't make the rating levels known you can't make
that a qualification.
-
The 'Racing Post' 2yo handicapper takes his own ratings at each time this
year and assigns what he believes to be a reasonable level for the topweight
in this type of unrated nursery. As the RP handicapper works to the same
scale as the Official handicapper and using the same basic set of 'rules'
they tend to the level tends to be quite close (within 5lbs). He could
give Mr Swannell a ring if necessary but the similar 'floorplan' to the
model of reality they are building probably makes this superfluous.
-
He has placed the topweight - Aaim To Storm - at OR90 which means he ought
to be a high class horse and with the potential to compete in Listed races.
He has already run a second place in a Class 2 Conditions race and had
a try in the Coventry which means he 'has' to get an 85+ Official Rating
no matter what level of performance those ratings actually were. Remember,
that the Official Ratings like to ensure no-one gets away with anything
and the average horse is over-rated when it moves into nurseries. Last
year's topweights in this Windsor nursery were See In The Dark and Beckenham's
Secret who the Racing Post guy thought were worth an 82 rating and Timeform
reports in retrospect as a 79. The first of that pair won the race and
got raised to an OR of 85 (88 in RP model). He ran in 4 more races without
placing and ther OR was below 79 by season end. The second was a notably
small horse and winner of an early season AW race which was never worth
a 79 on any planet, real or imaginery. He was unplaced at Windsor and ran
four more times in nurseries without placing, the last off 73. Once you
are on an unrealistic rating it can take a long time to get down to a usable
one.
-
So, the Racing Post thinks that the upper end of this field is better than
last year's and in general it is well above a Class 5 quality group. The
table that follows summarises the Official Ratings that the Racing Post
has thought reasonable along with the B2yoR estimates for the same horses
and the differences between them.
| Horse |
RP take on OR |
B2yoR [Est] |
Difference |
| Aaim To Storm |
90 |
64 (58-57) |
-26 |
| Stage Acclaim |
85 |
51 (49) |
-34 |
| Barraland |
81 |
58 (55) |
-23 |
| Ellemujie |
81 |
51 |
-30 |
| Ben |
80 |
53 (34-48-44) |
-27? |
| Ballycroy Boy |
78 |
48 |
-30 |
| Avertitop |
78 |
55 (46-40) |
-23? |
| Sheik'n'knotstirred |
75 |
44 (41) |
-31 |
| Rubytwosox |
69 |
34 (31) |
-35 |
| Ocean Transit |
68 |
38 (36) |
-30 |
-
In the last two seasons the difference between the B2yoR figure and the
OR has usually been in the range -12 (horses 'well in') and -20 or higher
(horses over-rated). The B2yoR estimates are down this year in an attempt
to ensure unproven ratings are not allowed but the range from -23 to over
-30 suggest that the Racing Post assignments are too high. But, that is
what happens when a horse with Aaim To Storm's background runs in a handicap,
he has to be above 85 because of the races he has run in.
-
Before getting into some more traditional thoughts about the race itself
let us try thinking about the ratings given in terms of the physical types
we have represented. The following - Virtual
Paddock - has pictures of the top nine in the race from Top Left to
Bottom Right in their Official Rating order. It is advisable to open the
VP as a separate window so that it can be referred to. When looking through
the pictures B2yoR would suggest you just keep three things in mind initially
- Size (the height, length and frame of the horse), Build (how muscular
it is) and neatness (how well the parts appeared to be matched and fit
together). The further test of 'where will they be a year from now' is
always useful. Does Avertitop, for example, look like a '78' handicapper?
-
Aaim To Storm is the biggest frame and well muscled and has the best rating.
He is acceptably neat but gives the impression he still needs to strengthen
up and may well need further than 6f. However, 90 is a believable rating
for him on physical type and it would be a surprise if he weren't competing
well enough in handicaps off ratings in the higher 80s a year from now.
If he develops well he has the physical size to be a little better than
that. Stage Acclaim is pretty typical of the ready Acclamations
we have seen. He's much smaller and slightly short and low slung. He's
quite lengthy for his size and lighter behind compared to a solid chest.
The filly Cake
is a similar geometry but slightly bigger and more heavily built all round
and has competed well at higher level. The colt Cracking
is very similar to Stage Acclaim and has been found wanting above conditions
race level. An '85' rating for him looks a little high and something in
75-9 range perhaps more usable. A year from now he could probably win off
78 for example.
-
Barraland is an interesting horse and he's a little taller than Stage Acclaim
but more heavily built. He also looked a horse who would develop with racing
and time whereas Stage Acclaim looked more 'ready' in line with his sire's
record so far. A rating of 81 looks on the low side for him in the long
term and 85+ as a 3yo would seem likely. He may well need further than
6f but in the context of this race he seems well weighted and the -23 difference
is joint lowest.
-
The picture of Ellemujie is also interesting. He's a smaller horse and
at Kempton B2yoR let this colour the view. Size will limit him to some
extent but the picture is notable for showing how 'neat' and right he looks.
Try seeing if it has the same effect on you - how balanced and together
does it look? He's is also a good example of a 'short backed' sprinter
type that would tend to get called 'compact'. If you compare him to Stage
Acclaim the distance from the withers (the 'hump' if front of where the
saddle would sit to the 'hips' where the top of the legs attach to the
backbone it is much shorter. He also seems more balanced front and rear.
An OR of 81 as a pure sprinter looks usable although 6f on heavy ground
doesn't look ideal for his geometry.
-
The picture of Ben comes from the first day of the season back in March
and he might have improved since then but he wasn't an '80' horse. Given
what he cost at the sales he looked a usable early type who needed to win
early. That he has run up places and struggled to win is a expected. He's
and ok size and moves well enough but is very narrow (body width that doesn't
always show up on a side-on picture) and lacking power because of that.
He lloks a classic example of a horse hampered in nurseries by early season
form being over-rated. On what he showed in March he's a horse that can
compete off a 60s rating and the longer it goes one the lower in the 60s
that needs to be.
-
Ballycroy Boy was a positive surprise when seen at Windsor, a good size
and quite powerfully built. However he looked a moderate mover behind and
likely to struggle for pace when stressed because of that. If you look
at the picture you may pick up the impression that his rear half is weaker
than in front and not set-up that neatly. He has run his best two races
on Southwell's fibresand and the limit on top pace that surface brings
may well have been a help to his movement. He's looked out of place in
two faster races on turf. On size and build a 78 rating is almost believable
but the soft ground will need to slow the others down for him.
-
Avertitop has the opposite problem to Ballycroy Boy. He's an athletic mover
but the picture shows a lightly made horse and an end-on shot would show
a pretty narrow body. This lack of power limits him and he's more a 70-72
Official rater than a 78. He might succeed off 78 but it would need to
be a weaker nursery. If you could swap the power and athleticism over between
Ballycroy Boy and Avertitop you'd have an 80+ horse (oh, and another one
you wouldn't want to be paying for).
-
Sheik'n'knotstirred isn't a '75' horse. He's a little below medium size
and an average sort of build but not very neatly put together. Weaker and
shorter in front and a bit too lengthy. He's not a rabbit so he can find
a race somewhere along the line but not off 75 and that's a problem if
that is where he has started his handicap career. Rubytwosox is another
narrow, shallow bodied and underpowered one on the Averititop lines. She
adds a gawky neck and youthful stupidity to the lack of power. In the long
term she can probably compete off a rating in the 60s but 69 at this stage
is too high.
-
The seller winner Ocean Transit has not been paddock reviewed. He cost
2,000 guineas as a yearling but was retained for 10,000 after his plater
success. In the same way that a runner placed in any conditions race has
to get an 85 rating the top end of the seller winner assignment is around
68 which is where the Racing Post handicapper thinks this one has landed.
In general how well seller class winners compete against better physical
types like he will meet in this race suggest the handicapping scale is
not linear. Stick a 60 horse in against a real 90 horse and the weight
doesn't bring them together as it would a 60 and 65 horse. Why this should
be is difficult to answer but part of the reason is probably cruising speed
and how performance breaks down if a runner (human or equine) is taken
along at a pace it is uncomfortable at early in a race. A class horse can
'break' a rabbit with it's normal galloping speed beyond what the weight
difference would suggest.
-
There are some useful hints about the old nugget about 'Topweights in nurseries'
in the table and discussion above. The top four in the weights are the
better physical types, have scope to improve and have won in open maiden
company with varying degrees of comfort. Even with a 2-dimensional picture
you can point at deficiencies with the other which will limit their effectiveness.
Only two have won, one in a seller and the best size and build in the group
(Ballycroy Boy) under suitable conditions in a low grade Southwell auction
(when he looked quite good going away from rabbits with low cruising speeds,
he's got broken up by better horses on turf). You can make some sort of
case that all of the top 4 will be able to compete off their Official Ratings
as 3yos given normal development. The same can't be said of the bottom
six and Ben & Sheik'n'knotstirred look badly treated.
-
To sum up with some more traditional thoughts on how the race may play
out. The caveat is that the current heavy ground at Windsor caused a number
of horses to notably underperform on Saturday (Burning Incense looked terrific
again having run very well from a bad draw at Ascot but never got going
for example). Aaim To Storm looks to be the stable second string with a
7lb apprentice and his efforts in better races suggest 90 is a bit too
high for him but he isn't one to give up on because his physical size means
he can continue to improve. Stage Acclaim looks a little high in the weights
and would probably need a drop of 3-6lbs to be competitive in a solid nursery.Given
his early start he is the type his trainer will find a nursery for this
season. The two most interesting are Barraland and Ellemujie with the first
appealing as a horse that can develop with racing and with an OR he can
better. He looks to be the stable first string and a strong case here.
Ellemujie seemed to win comfortably at Kempton and one who could rate higher
and the -30 difference not a true reflection of his ability. On physical
set-up he looks more a fast ground type and a lesser effort here wouldn't
necessarily be a bad thing because he's be one to follow back on better
ground.
-
The bottom three don't make any appeal unless Ocean Transit proves to be
better than expected on review. Ben's latest estimates have been below
his early season efforts and they may have been too high (keeping ratings
at the correct, low, levels can be difficult even with a 'show me the money'
attitude in the handicapper. Avertitop looks like a placer at best if things
go right and Ballycroy Boy has to prove himself under any conditions aside
from the fibresand.
|
