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A large field at Thirsk and more easy ground and a set of non-runners on
the evidence of recent days. The maiden revolves around what quality Wolgan
Valley is and he has not been paddock reviewed. His debut form looks
good if you take the 'finished behind Swiss Franc' view and not as good
if you look behind. Swiss Franc has improved notably since that race and
a direct comparison invalid. On his second run he couldn't catch Secret
Asset although pluggin on well enough and steps up to 6f here. The winner
is entered for a 5f Listed race on Friday at Sandown and if Wolgan Valley
succeeds here easily you would have to take him quite seriously in that
event. The third from it - Captain Gerrard - won a Novice race by a clear
margin at the weekend although a direct comparison is also not correct.
Captain Gerrard had shown good form on his first two starts when allowed
to make or press the pace and had failed to get home over 6f on debut.
At Haydock behind Wolgan Valley he was purposely held up and never looked
the same horse. Returned to front-running from a good draw at Chester he
improved to better his prvious efforts.
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While he sets a good standard the Godolphin horse hasn't looked a bargain
at $1,450,000 and from a wide draw on softer ground he isn't likely to
be much value. The opposition that has run already is flawed and while
Ink Spot has more ability than he
has shown he doesn't seem to want to participate in racing. The Newmarket
'Class 3' maiden that Incomparable
was 4th in looks at present to be a modest affair and a low level of form.
The horse that finished second had already looked limited to below average
maiden winner ability going into the race and couldn't win with an easy
lead. The 7th had already run in a seller (having been behind Wolgan Valley
on debut) and the possibly 'eyecatching' 8th well beaten at Folkestone
last week. It looks a race to be very wary of and the horses from 'bigger'
stables in behind like Rio De La Plata & Flawed Genius opposable next
time depending what race quality they face.
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But, fortunately, if you want to oppose Wolgan Valley there are a good
selection of possibles for strong debuts from the newcomers. James Fanshawe's
thoroughness & selectivity with 2yo runners was covered last week and
Carnival Queen was a disappointment in only an inexperienced 4th on her
Folkestone debut as his first juvenile representative. He runs Sir
Gerry here and he has a profile which suggests he wouldn't be runner
if he wasn't up to winning this sort of race at least. With Carnival Queen
she might have been running to give her owner's new sire a boost but Sir
Gerry doesn't have that background. Fanshawe trained his dam but he has
an American background and sold int he US before being brought over here
to resell as a 2yo. Would he be up to winning this on debut? Probably only
if he were above average and a 70+ type but his profile makes that a possibility.
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Kevin Ryan has had a moderate season so far with only 7 winners compared
to 16 to a similar point last year. The number of runners is only a little
down and it may just be he has a less able group overall. Given the well
above average results he had in 2005-6 a settling back to lower levels
would be 'normal'. Of the six winner she has had above claimer level 3
have won on debut and one (Russian Reel was supposed to but got tired late
in the race). The other pair finished 4th at 11/4 and 6/1 so it suggests
he hasn't changed his approach and if they are any good it still shows
on debut. Imperial Mint has
a good profilefor a sprint 2yo and the dam's first two runners both won
first time. The vibes and the market would probably be a good indicator
if he is sueful.
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Of the others Call For Liberty
runs for Bryan Smart who is having a terrific year with his 2yos and won
the Spindifter Stakes yesterday. He is a trainer who normally runs the
better 2yos early and a notable tail-off in likely winners starting out
from July onwards. There also a bit of the 'they can't all be good' givent
he range of 2yo winners he has already had and this one looked below average
at the sales. Howard Johnson is another 'tail-off' trainer and a 6f debut
this late (say compared to 2006) would suggest either a lesser type or
an 'intro' debut for a 7f+ horse. Resolute
Defender appears to have made a notable development from yearling to
2yo having been sold for 16,000 guineas as a younger horse and up to 51,000
this year. If he is suited to 6f he might compete well on debut but on
balance more likely to be a 7f second time type. If there is going to be
a 33/1 surprise placer it is likely to be Harlequinn
Danseur. Nigel Tinkler has a poor record with 2yos and at the sales
buys neat, but too small yearlings, for about 10,000 guineas as a standard.
He gets these fit and competent for debut and they often don't progress
and many regress STO. He has already had a 33/1 debut place this year and
Harlequinn Danseur is notably expensive at £50,000 for the stable
and has a breeze-up preparation in his background. He has missed two previous
races because of the ground and he is presumably one the trainer wants
to get right and ready for a good debut.
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In summary if Wolgan Valley was up to Listed plus class he probably ought
to have won already and isn't likely to improve greatly. He makes an unappealing
favourite in a big field and had already been beaten by one 'lurker' in
a northern maiden. This field (before defections) has a solid group on
potential within the newcomers and the best of them is probably up to his
standard. Imperial Mint makes most appeal so long as there are some positive
vibes and Sir Gerry ought to place. If you like a longer SP who will be
ready to perform to their best FTO then Harlequinn Danseur should show
up well.
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