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Difficult to know which races will be on at present and how big the range
of non-runners will be if they are run. The preview will therefore concentrate
on the 7f maiden fillies' event at Kempton which should be least affected.
The race features two fillies who were fourth on debut in very different
race types. Kay Es Jay made a solid
start in a similar race with a staying on late run and clear of the fifth.
The second has won well since and that form looks sound in this context.
One niggle would be that the trainer's earlier 2yos haven't ptrgressed
a great deal from their initial outings this season. Narmeen
made her debut over 5f and recived some support but got easily outpaced
after halway and overhauled by a Cute who had been well back late. The
second and third from that race finished 5th and 8th in the 6f Albany Stakes
at Royal Ascot and make her run look better. She steps straight up to 7f
and both parents only won at 5-6f. Her trainer is notable for trying all
sorts at 5f before moving up in distance so that move isn't the negative
it would be with some trainers (where it would mean they thought it was
woefully slow). A typical lightly made, slightly spare, type that the trainer
turns out she maes a little less apeal than Kay Es Jay.
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Amongst the newcomers is an obvious stand-out with Neve
Lieve. Her trainer has been covered before and with the limited evidence
of 5 debuts by 2yos we know he prepares them thoroughly and if they have
ability they will win. The 5 tries have produced 2 wins and a second and
the earliest runners have been the useful ones. His one previous debut
this year won at 20/1 while running against the rail advantage bias at
Lingfield's turf course and looked an above average one on performance.
Neve Lieve isn't going to be 20/1 with his record getting better known
and Dettori booked just in case you wer elooking th eother way at the time.
A usable draw is a further positive.
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He pedigree is a peculiar mix with her high class dam having not produced
a 2yo win with 7 previous foals and the winners have been develpment 3yo
types. Her sire is Dubai Destination who is in his first season and has
already got something of a reputation for his runners being ready (and
perhaps best on debut). Of his 13 runners to date as many as 7 have placed
first time with three winning. The other later winner was beaten a short
head on debut and peaked STO before a less good run. One of the debut winners
(Yem Kinn) looked much less well and ready on his second, moderate, run
at Royal Ascot than on his debut. In summary, ought to be a strong debut
and if a slightly above average type would be capable enough to beat the
profile standard of the other two fillies.
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The other debuts from more important 2yo stables make less appeal and can
be used to make some interesting points (certainly more useful than the
'the market should be informative' guff from the paper publications, a
formulation which ought to be banned). Richard Hannon gets debut wins at
three times of the year and the majority of them at 5-6f at specific times
in earlier season (i.e. before now). He gets a odd 7f debut wins but they
share some traits in that they are by higher class horses, at higher class
courses and often receive market support.
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His 6 debut winners at 7f since 2002 have been split as 3 at Newmarket
and one each at Ascot, Newbury & Sandown. They have included Group
class runners like Nasheej & Fantastic View and high class handicappers
like Solent (runner-up at Royal Ascot this year) & Gramm (sold for
110,000 guineas after his 2yo season). He's already had a 7f debut winner
this season with a supported runner at Sandown (Firestreak for The Queen)
and on past evidence he's a horse that should compete well at higher level.
He runs Aneebee here and she just
doesn't fit this profile and an ordinary debut. If she's really useful
she might just win but would need to be at the AW track to avoid the soft
ground.
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Jamie Osborne has had a good season with his 2yos so far but, like Hannon,
he doesn't target debut wins for the most part and they come along with
the best of his competitive 2yos at certain times in the season. With a
smaller stable he seems to load up the competitive 2yos into the earliest
debuts more than Mr Hannon does. His first 7 runners this season have all
been winners (2 on debut, 2 STO and 3 on 3TO for their first wins). The
later debuts will include a much broader range of talent and debuts wins
at 7f rare, only two if you discount a late season, draw assisted, AW win
in the last 5 years by slightly above average colts in moderate races.
His nine debuts since that initial batch of 7 natural 2yos have produced
one place (by Ten Meropa who won so comfortably STO he is probably somewhat
above average). His Fernlawn Hope
is likely to be an average debut which wouldn't win and probably won't
place and (Racing Post take note) the 'market' is most unlikely to help
you (Ten Meropa was no different in the market to all the unplaced ones
and the suggestion that there's some 'Oracle' out there that knows how
good they all are is pretty lame).
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Eoghan O'Neill seems to be fascinated by batches and patterns and at a
time when a set of better debuts should be expected he had three entered
over the weekend with one win, one fourth (Newmarket in a solid race) and
one non-runner. He's had a gap since then and the question is whether Georgie
The Fourth is a tail-end of the better debut batch or the start of the
normal ones. There's just enough in her pedigree to at least take a serious
look in the preliminaries at her but, again, the market isn't going to
be much help excpet at the extremes. If she's 11/10 she's probably useful
and 33/1+ then slow but somewhere in between and you need to see her to
judge.
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Brian Meehan gets less debut wins than the others dealt with but his Rosaleen
runs for a 'lucky' owner who has had a number with better filies with the
yard. The trainer tends to introduce the better ones at bigger courses
like Newmarket of Newbury so it was a reasonable sign that she missed her
intended at Newbury last week because of the ground. She would have to
be extremely useful to win this FTO, especially from a wide draw, but the
traine rhasd been positive enough about her to presume she should probably
be up to winning later.
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In summary a paddock review check to see what Neve Lieve is and whether
good enough to beat the two with '4' next to their name first up. If not,
then compare the other two for the most suitable for the 7f test, the stronger
finisher on debut was Kay Es Jay.
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