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The 6f maiden at Newbury has a solid favourite with John Gosden's
Legal Eagle who finished third
on debut on good to firm at the same course. He looked a little above average
on paddock review without being outstanding and ought to set a standard
in the low 60s if he handles the soft ground. On profile the only possible
candidate for a strong debut which might compete with an in-form Legal
Eagle would be Marcus Tregoning's first string Caradoc
Place.
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His trainer's runners still tend to show up well on debut if they have
ability although though don't seem to have been quite as primed for debut
in the last two years. His record with Newbury debuts since 2002 is 2 wins
from 36 with 8 placed and both of those wins date from 2003 when he had
7 FTO successes and really was a 'Show Or Nothing' trainer. This year his
best two debut runners have finished second and achieved ratings of 56
& 61 and the upper end of that range would be up to an ordinary STO
effort from the Gosden representative. The SPs of his debut runners have
been some indication of ability with SPs at 8/1 or less including the two
winners and 5 placed horses and the successful ones were both less than
2/1. One caveat is that thye were normally in big field races and the easy
going has reduced this to just eight declarations. Caradoc Place has a
usable 2yo pedigree and the trainer has said he was bought to be a 2yo
type. He seems the most likely winner if the right combination of a Legal
Eagle under-performance and his being above average to some extent.
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Before getting to the Hannon & Channon runners a run through the others.
Tregoning also runs Kara Tau who
looks the second string on jockeys although his pedigree is a little better
than Caradoc Place's. He is also likley to be ready enough to show up quite
well so could also place at longer odds. Pat Eddery runs Castles
In The Air who missed his intended debut in the important 6f maiden
here in mid May. He received an above average sales rating and ought to
be a solid winner but his trainer's 2yos have not shown up well FTO since
he started with a licence. Sylvester Kirk's record with debuts at the course
in the last five year's is 1 from 21 and that by a Group quality filly
who was 15/2 for the Watership Down sales race. His othe twenty FTOs have
all started at 2/1+ and none have done better than 6th and most
well behind midfield. Dauberval
is going to have to be a pretty unusual talent to figure even in this smaller
field. Brendan Powell hasn't had a 2yo winner 2001-6 with a limited number
of runners and the odd places have never been turned into successes. Binfield
looked a 7f+ nursery type on debut at Windsor and this a development run
unless the race falls apart on the heavy ground.
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Which means, if you were the odds compiler you would look to the Hannon
(King Supreme) & Channon
(Candle Sahara) runners and
say that they must be ok and put them high up in the betting lists. But,
both trainers have very consistent records (check their Update records
on their 2007 detail pages to get a feel for this) year on year and those
prior statistics suggest a 6f debut at this time are pretty unlikely to
be winners in a normally competitive maiden race here. Both trainers target
2yo racing and start runners who show any ability and precocity early.
A 6f debut this 'late' would indicate either a 7f+ type having an intro
run or possibly an ok type at 6f but who has been slow to develop and unlikely
to be a natural on debut.
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Let us look at their recent records with 6f debuts at Newbury after
May. Richard Hannon's is :-
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2004 = 8 debuts, 1 placed (at 5/2 with season maiden Councellor), 7 unplaced
with 6 at 14/1+ and one at 5/1 in a weaker race. None of the 8 won
as 2yos - remember the point about later 6f debuts without some reason
for them (injury, slow developer, etc)
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2005 = 12 debuts, 2 placed (Group placer at 9/2 and a season maiden at
40/1 in moderate race), 10 unplaced with only two at less than 10/1 and
neither won as 2yos. Only one of the unplaced runners won as 2yos with
Lady Livius (20/1 FTO) winning the 5f Supersprint at 100/1 and her talents
had clearly lain unnoticed at home.
-
2006 = 10 debuts, 1 placed (dual later winner at 9/4), 9 unplaced with
only two at less than 10/1 - Group 1 winner Indian Ink 7th at 6/1 after
a typical Hughes 'try out' ride and dual winner Duke Of Tuscany, also at
6/1. Two other minor winners in the unplaced group (3 & 4TO winners
who improved from low bases with racing).
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So, the Hannon debuts which match the King Supreme model haven't produced
a winner in the last three years and only four places, two by Group class
horses and two accidents in moderate events (who never won). The 30 horses
as a set have produce 7 juvenile winners (23%) when Hannon's overall record
is 45%+. Even some of the good ones haven't shown up well. However, he
has had enough time to establish which ones have some ability and they
will usually show with a single figure SPs in big fields.
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Mick Channon's record over the same period is :-
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2004 = 3 debuts, 1 placed at 12/1 (won STO), 2 unplaced at 11/1 & 20/1
(season maidens)
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2005 = 7 debuts, 2 debuts wins (50/1 by Group class filly as trainer owned
3rd string & 9/2 for Listed placer), 5 unplaced at 12/1+ (incl 1 later
minor 4TO winner)
-
2006 = 8 debuts, all unplaced at 12/1+, 2 later winners with 8f Listed
winner Sweet Lily and minor STO maiden victress.
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Similarities to Hannon's record with the majority of runners of moderate
ability and minor winners or development types. Odd higher class runners
but only one (South Cape in late season) who was really 'expected'. put
that together and the places look to be between Legal Eagle & the Tregoning
pair unless the market really suggests that there's a really useful one
amongst the others and even then they would be unlikely to be ready to
win an average quality maiden first go.
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The Warwick race can be linked to via Hannon's record in the 6f
maidens at the course in June+ of 2007. He has already had 7 of these first
runs with two placed (Gypsy Baby 2nd at 11/2 and a good 3TO winner, and
Billion Dollar Kid 2nd
at 7/1 and probably favourite at Warwick). 5 have been unplaced included
two fourths in divisions of the same maiden. The '4th' who was 11/1 went
on to win at Newmarket stepped up to 7f and the one who was 25/1 was well
beaten at Kempton over 7f next time (as a 9/2 shot).
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Which further makes the point that Hannon is running through the same script
every year. The later 6f debuts are often intros for 7f+ types and the
price they start on debut tells you what the stable thinks of them in basic
ability terms (on what they have seen at home where they aren't tested
or pressed). The others still to run are Landikhaya (33/1) and probably
more a development nursery type and Tina's Best (back to 5/1 in an empty
race and one to be very wary of).
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When Kyrie
Eleison was beaten at Kempton he stood out in that group as being about
the shortest of the field and B2yoR, who had said he ought to be ok, knew
that was poor advice as soon he appeared in context. Billion Dollar Kid
- Picture
- shouldn't have that problem although he had gone light and a little gawky
since his yearling sale and a step up to 7f is as expected. Marning
Star, his main opponent has less potential to improve but looked a
good professional when second at Thirsk (as a typical Channon tepid later
6f debut as a primer for the 7f STO win attempt). The possible longer price
improver is Champagne Dancer
who never got into the race on debut.
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Some brief thoughts on yesterday's races. Mark Johnston hasn't shwon us
the set of debuts by better 7f types so far this season and we are into
the period when they may appear, if he has them. Gothenburg looked a possible
on profile and ran well at Catterick until geting caught late on. Worth
watching out for his upcoming debuts to see whether it was the start of
a 'batch'. The defeat of Fortuity in the second division of that Catterick
7f maiden wasn't much of a surprise and the quality of the Class 3 Newmarket
maiden he placed in is very questionable.
-
The 5f filies' maiden went to an outsider which was no shock although not
easy to find. What sort of market has fillies like Drastic Measure (achieved
just above seller form on debut and belted STO) and Eastern Romance (moderate
debut just in front of garbage like Eboracum Dream & Mam Leo and poor
run LTO) as favourites? Eastern Romance's third place in the Hilary Needler
looks worth a sub 70 Official Rating but no doubt she'll end up with something
around 85 because it was a 'Listed race'.
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The two Given fillies that improved a little to win and place both had
somes excuses for their previous moderate runs. The winner Bohobe had dropped
to 5f having not seen out 6f twicet .On her second run she was a visible
victim of racing wide of the stands' rail at Ayr. Like Lingfield's turf
course the rail works like a moving escalator advancing those close to
it and anything 3 or 4 off it has no chance. At a recent meeting we had
the peculiar sight of Alpen Adventure wide of the rail and outpaced and
drop back as the late race efforts were made. He then hung right back to
the rail behind the others and took off in the final furlong to get back
to second. Linnet Park failed to handle the turn at Wolverhampton on debut
and that run can be forgotten and next time she pressed a good pace over
5f against a useful filly and that broke her. On an easier track with a
slower pace against lesser athletes she was able to show a her best (although
moderatish) form.
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At Kempton the profile had come out with Kay Es Jay on top as long as she
was better than Neve
Lieve because there was a chance of her being a better class debut.
Paddock review soon cleared that up and Dettori was their to ride the 3yo
Godolphin maiden filly (a lightly made daughter of Cape Verdi). To make
the point covered in the preview yesterday about how the Hannon & Osborne
runners were likely to be lesser debuts here is what thay looked like -
Aneebee (smaller,
immature and unready even rugged up) & Fernlawn
Hope (even smaller & 'younger'). Which is a big part of why the
better ones stand out when they are there, of course.
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