-
A real lull in the 2yo racing this last week with the heavy ground, non-runners
and abandonments. The quality of the racing has been generally low and
the slow times for races raising obvious questions over the validity of
the form. Will the finishing orders prove reliable in the longer term or
just teach which horses are least inconvenienced by easy ground?
-
To get a feel for the slow times the 6f maiden at Newbury on Thursday evening
was run in 78.9 seconds, 7.71 above the fastest juvenile time in recent
years. The majority of the field didn't handle the ground to varying degrees
and the first two home were horses with previous runs and better fitness.
The late 'finishes' of Candle Sahara and King Supreme past horses who had
shown more gumption and pace don't amount to anything worthwhile. The paddock
review gets more difficult with the 2yos rugged up like chasers in mid-winter
in the preliminaries and kept in the saddling boxes as long as possible.
A difficult group of horses to get a handle on and in the brief view of
them Kara Tau looked the best type but didn't show much.
-
The 7f maiden at Warwick the same evening was won by Toto Skyllachy in
91.9 seconds as the horse made his three race progression from refuser
on debut, to might-like-to-join-in STO and a willing front runner third
go. The fastest 7f race last season (at Lingfield, with Brighton, Redcar
and Chepstow the other fast courses) was run in 82.13 seasons on a straight
course. The top speeds required for the horses to cruise at and the staying
power needed mean that these are two very different tests. The quickest
Warwick 7f last year was in 83.99 so Toto Skyllachy would have been more
than two-thirds of a furlong behind.
-
At Beverley yesterday the 5f race was run in over 70 seconds and slower
than the quick 6f races at somewhere like Brighton. Last year Eddie Jock
did the Brighton 6f (a wee bit shy of the full yardage admittedly) in 68.41
seconds and Listed winner Bahama Mama in 68.9 (times don't lie normally,
in retrospect, the best horses do them - Eddie Jock clearly has something
most horses don't on his best days as Royal Ascot proved again). Think
about that in terms of stride length and frequency. Those two races aren't
testing the same thing and the 5f race was a 'staying' event. In metabolic
terms it matters too. The horse's body can get energy to drive it's muscular
activity from various sources and the one which uses the oxygen absorbed
from increased breathing and heart rate takes between 50-60 seconds to
kick into full gear. That's part of the reason why people talk about fast
5f sprints being done on 'one breath' because the energy expenditure is
coming primarily from the anaerobic pathways (i.e. not using the increased
oxygen intake). That's fine at Epsom and the 5f is run in the mid 50 seconds
plus-a-bit but 2yos taking 70 seconds and more at Beverley are well past
the aerobic (increased oxygen using) pathways kicking in. More of a staying
race.
-
Jockeys on British courses tend to have a difficult time judging pace in
sprint races at the best of times and add in some heavy ground and there
is even less margin for error. Both of the 5f races yesterday, on uphill
courses, were won by the horse that went through halfway in last place.
The Listed 'Dragon Stakes' at Sandown has a long history of horses winning
with last furlong 'closes' and Western Art gave us another without looking
anything above Listed quality and in a slow time.
-
It is instructive to look at New Jersey's performance yesterday to see
what it tells us about the Listed 'National Stakes' run on the same course
in late May. Prior to that race New Jersey had looked uncomfortable and
a little slow on Thirsk's fast, firm, flat 5f and had improved notably
when he met some easier ground at York. The National Stakes was run of
Good-to-Soft (Soft) and gave us a typical 5f race at the track. The three
colts with best form plus serial trailblazer Baytown Blaze set a pace which
didn't look over-the-top strong but New Jersey, Carleton & Major Eazy
all faded and the first three places went to the horses in the last three
positions at halfway (the fillies Sweepstake and Lady Avenger plus Al Muheer).
Those three were pulling away from the other three at the line and looking
quite useful at a cursory visual level.
-
If you took that form literally you would have spent the last month or
so wondering what was going on. The three placed horses have all run since
without placing and not really competing that strongly, in strongish races
admittedly. Major Eazy has run well at Ascot before ironing out an ordinary
field at Lingfield and Carleton has won a slowish Novice race easily before
a stong 6th in the Group 3 Norfolk Stakes. The result of the National Stakes
starts to look upside-down and presumably the pace caused the problems.
Which meant that if New Jersey could be held up off the pace yesterday
he should make a strong bid. Which he did although as it proved the pace
was still a bit too strong and allowed a, good quality, closer to get to
him. In general the Dragon race tends to be the highlight of the year for
most of the field and the current group look similar. [Vhujon had looked
so well suited to firm ground on his debut he never looked likely to be
suited to 5f at Sandown on heavy and he ran poorly. It's quite possible
we have seen the best of him already as well although interesting to see
what he could do on a fast 5f on firm ground, perhaps at Goodwood for the
Molecomb or York's Roses Stakes].
-
Part of the reason for the previous discussion is because the three planned
races for tomorrow make pretty unappealing betting prospects. Low quality
horses with poor profiles running on desperate ground at stiff tracks.
Going back to the time discussion, if a horse you think has a good profile
like Eddie Jock runs a 68.41 at Brighton then pretty much nothing can go
wrong if you support him. He is setting such a stiff level that only some
tiny proportion of the 2yo population can match it and they are vanishingly
unlikely to be lurking in a Brighton race (he was 9/2 that day).
-
If we take the Claimer at Beverley over 7.5f on a technical course
(downhill, sharp right hand bend, uphill) what sort of standard would the
best set? Alpen Adventure has a suspect 49 rating and his overall standard
of form is around the 40 mark. He has the positives of a good trainer and
apparently plugging on in 3 of his 5 outings but steps up to 7.5f and isn't
improving. The opposition is headed by Indecision who had shown nothing
until stepped up to 7f in a seller and becoming a front runner. He may
well do the same again and supporting him would mean an anxious time waiting
for him to 'burst' up the hill, as seems likely. When he won at Redcar's
fast, flat 7f the tremendously daft and awkward moving Magnol was closing
him down at the line. In all her races she has looked like a toddler (a
big, leggy toddler..) struggling with Quantum Mechanics while trying to
keep in a straight line. She's the one who could really come on if she
finally gets organised but this tricky 7.5f doesn't look ideal unless she's
mentally improved. The others have shown nothing and if they stepped forward
it would be mostly unexplainable (unlike Bohobe earlier this week). Alpen
Adventure looks the most solid and sets a standard beyond most of the field.
Magnol the most likely to surprise if the long, uphill finish, allows her
to get organised and get back the ground she's likely to lose on the tricky
bits.
-
The 5f event at Beverley looks a very poor group for an open maiden and
Soopacal, Lekin Sedona, Pussycat Bow, Doubtless & Penny Arcade ought
to be ignorable given a reasonable standard of performance required. Rich
James drops to 5f after fading 2f from home over 6f on debut and then never
getting into a similar race when purposely held up. He still has a rating
at 39 which isn't far from competing and he is likely to be held up again.
We know he'll fade if he leads or presses. Know No Fear was made favourite
for a very weak 5f maiden at Warwick on debut by default - he hadn't run
so didn't have the 'convictions' the other runners had. He lost ground
at the start and hung in the straight and couldn't beat some moderate fillies.
He looks a claimer type on profile and while he could win it would need
to be a poor race. Pay Parade has been missing for 60 days since a debut
on a fast ground, flat 5f where she couldn't go with the two useful horses
but beat the garbage (both well beaten since). It looked a reasonable debut
by trainer standards but the absence is a niggle. Another race with a tricky
choice between three insubstantial profiles with low performance levels
in the book.
-
More of the same at Carlisle which needs to survive an inspection. The
two with the best form (only mid to late 40s though) are Elijah Pepper
and Rievaulx Valentino. The first front ran here last time and got hampered
as Liberty Ship hung right and then respond late. The other has been a
serial pace presser who has run in three races which haven't produced a
single later winner and has appeared to fade twice. If the pace they set
is too fast they may well set the race up for a closer but none of the
others has shown enough to suggest themselves as the solution. Another
tricky choice and a result probably dependent upon how the race shapes
up. We could do with some good ground or better and some positive race
profiles rather than 'least worst' patchworks in testing conditions. The
Newmarket July meeting at the end of next week will hopefully bring some
of those and the next preview will look forward to those races.
|