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Saturday's two surviving races at Beverley had looked to be difficult with
the three horses in each with the 'best' profiles having little substance
and more holes to fall through than solid places to stand. As it turned
out they couldn't have had much worse a day as a group. The 6 including
1 non runner, 1 fatality (Alpen Adventure who broke down on the opening
downhill section), 1 withdrawal after causing trouble at the start and
one blown break with Know No Fear's head in the superstructure as the other's
got going. Indecision ran reasonably but even after being held up couldn't
see out the full distance and Rich James ran competently but faded in later
race exactly as he had in two previous outings.
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The 7.5f race was run in around 10 seconds above the best juvenile time
in recent seasons and the 5f race even slower than the previous days event
despite a dry day in the interim. When the sprint race winner Soopacal
turns up in a Novice event or Nursery how seriously should we be taking
him? Five length winners usually need caution but he achieved very little
although another plus mark for trainer Bryan Smart who has got his 2yos
competitive whatever their ability this season. To labout the point about
the times not lying the fastest 7.5f times recently have been done by Drumfire
(Group 3 winner later) on faster ground and Confidential Lady on good-to-soft.
As an aside the Group 3 Champagne Stakes at Sandown was interesting (the
horse last at halfway won, again) with Hoh Mike winning and Wi Dud running
well and making the best show of the 3yos taking on the older horses so
far. They ran 2 of the three fastest 5f times by juveniles last year (outside
of 3 on the notably slick Lingfield (which presumably isn't a full 5f)
and Redcar straights). Wi Dud ran his on official Good (Good to Soft) which
was probably incorrect. The other fast time? - that was by Avertuoso at
York and presumably owed a lot to very firm going.
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The Ayr race on Sunday is another weak affair with no runner with a solid
profile. There's a large field and if the draw bias is in play the winner
will either be a front runner who can see out the trip and not hang off
the rail or a horse that sits back in the field and comes through on the
rail late on. Rub Of The Relic
(if he runs 2 days after not seeing out 7f on heavy) has the best draw
and can front run effectively. Despite his low form level and lack of progression
he would set a reasonable standard. But it is such a low level, that as
with the Beverley races, you would need a value price to be interested.
The other high drawn horses contain mostly limited looking newcomers plus
Handsinthemist, already beaten
in a claimer.
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The horses with hints that they might compete are mostly drawn out in the
centre and will need to find a way to get over to the rail. Kevin Ryan's
Kamal faded badly on debut but after
chasing better horses than he meets here. His trainer didn't have a good
record of bringing runners back from poor debuts after a break until two
last year. Kamal look a below average type at the sales and not a profile
to overpower event his field.
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This is the type of race that a competent newcomer can often win (as Soopacal
did at Beverley) and Michael Dods has a good record in that regard but
his Abbey Express is poorly
drawn. Alan Swinbank used to be able to be relied on not to get
FTO winners but has had two this year mixed in with the more usual so-so
ones. He probably hasn't changed his appraoch and Salinger's
Star may be a solid filly and won on ability rather than tuning at
25/1. The other debut success was in a very slowly run Newcastle race where
the pace setters fell apart and probably tells the same story of no appraoch
change. Either way, his Dareios
looks more of a 7f+ development debut.
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In summary just the sort of race you need when someone sidles up to you
on the racecourse and says 'You look as if you know something about this
lark, just give us the winner of the next, will you.'. Rub Of The Relic
comes out top on profile and is well drawn but in the long term supporting
that sort of horse isn't going to be productive. Kamal is the most likely
to snap-to on his second run but isn't going to be value given the 'K Ryan'
next to his name. How about a bit each-way on Abbey Express'.
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The Brighton race is much more interesting with probably four runners who
have shown better form than Rub Of The Relic and at least a couple with
more improvement. Clive Brittain
isn't a particularly good trainer when it comes to 2yos and mostly gets
wins only with his very best horses. He doesn't manage to gets wins with
horses with some ability that a range of other trainers would. It wont
surprise anyone to hear that he also has an unusual approach to race choice
and many run in Listed/Group races to no obvious purpose.
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On the plus side the debut runners are usually competent and when a horse
shows real ability FTO it often is successful next time if put into
an appropriate race. This season he has only managed one win from 11
runners and the maidens Al Muheer, Mansii, Cute and Atheer Dubai would
probably all be winners by now if Richard Hannon had them. You can still
run them in high class races later but get the win out of the way if they
have that much ability. Which brings us to Harbour
Blues who appeared to make a well above average debut at Yarmouth.
Losing a little ground at the start but then cruising intot he race and
challenging the experienced favourite and pulling clear with him. When
two horses open up a gap like that to the third some combination of them
being average or above and the others being moderate is usually the cause.
Those behind haven't competed strongly since but the manner of his debut
suggest normal improvement will see him set too strong a standard if he
handles the course.
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Michael Bell's The Betchworth
Kid looked a neat, usable type at a just below average level at the
sales and at Folkestone still looked the same thing as a 2yo. Nothing to
take against but a little under medium and a little underpowered. He got
well behind in that 7f race through inexperience before amking 'eyecatching'
late progress but was staying on to faders recording low estimate levels.
He's the type that should win a race but not up to Harbour Blues' level
if that one's debut has been read correctly.
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Sheik'n'knotstirred missed
a run in the first nursery of the season on Windsor's abadoned card a week
ago and had an Official Rating put at 75 by the Racing Post. That is too
high and he isn't that good a horse and he has already struggled in open
maidens. A 75 horse ought to compete more strongly and he has been on the
'break point' in each of his races between the real 75+ horses ahead and
the garbage behind. He's a 60s horse probably and would have a better chance
in the Ayr race. Star In The East
was a real handful on debut and injured Martin Dwyer when going berserk
whenever they tried to jock him up on her. She was clueless in the race
but at least learnt a bit when pushing on in the last furlong. Don't fall
into the trap of saying she wasn't that far behind Polar Circle (Listed
winner) & Nijoom Dubai (Group2 winners) because that race was a dawdle
and Nijoom Dubai has improved greatly since. She was just behind Rio Princess
& Pantherii who have been beaten at similar form levels since. On her
last run she got hung 5 wide on Lingfield's bend and steps to 7f from 5f
now. In between she was 5th in a strongly run race at Bath which is difficult
to rate. As a type she's small and neat but below average and a step to
7f against bigger horses too much of a test.
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The newcomers would have to be very good if Harbour Blues comes up to expectations
and that seems unlikely. Neville Callaghan has a very good record at the
course but with STO+ runs and his debut wins usually come along in earlier
season with his best 2yos. However, his four debuts at the course int he
last 5 years two have placed and 3 have been 2yo winners of varying types
(2 in nurseries). He has said that the filly Woodcote
Wildcat is on the small side with little scope to develop and he thought
she would start her career in April over 5f. Her running much later over
7f suggests he has a more development plan with her now.
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Mick Channon has an interesting approach to debuts over 7f and each year
the earlier ones seem to follow a pattern. The very earliest in mid-June,
including at Sandown, have been slow and non-winners in recent years. In
the first two weeks of July he then tend to debut a a batch which includes
those of varying ability but will include solid winners, both open maiden
types and slower 8f nursery projects. But debut wins are rare and only
6 of his 38 first time out successes in the last five seasons have been
at 7f or more. 5 of those six have been at 6/1 or less and at least four
of them well above average. He runs Look
To The Star for Jaber Abdullah (owner of two of those 6 longer distance
debut winners) who is a half brother to the same connections Flashy Wings.
He would need to be well above average to beat Harbour Blues' profile level
and if that were the case he probably be supported down below 3/1.
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