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The discussion of today's Pontefract Nursery is in the Preview for the
9th of July. The remainder of this 'Review' is a look back at the 6f Maiden
from Monday night. In profile this looked to be a solid race, at least,
and with the top end of the profile with the possibility of some better
types. The Preview made the point that in 30 debuts over 6f from Bryan
Meehan at Windsor in the last five seasons only three have placed. Later
Grade 1 winner Buy The Sport won a 3 runner conditions race, Group 1 placed
juvenile Rebuttal was second in a solid race and a lesser type a volunteer
third in an empty event.
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With that background a two length success for Meehan's Sharp
Nephew has to be taken seriously. There was probably a clue before
the race in that Richard Hughes rode him rather than one of the Hannon
newcomers. As a jockey he's in that stage where the chance of riding good
horses means he will take the risk of upsetting the odd trainer or owner,
even the father-in-law. In the context of a Meehan debut the 8/1 SP was
relatively short as well.
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In recent previews the point has been made that for the most part the best
horses do the best times. Concrete going and a tailwind can bypass this
to some extent and enable an average horse to turn in a lightning time.
The official ground at Windsor was Good to Soft and the previous Monday
had been been Heavy with two drying days before the meeting but a shower
in the afternoon. The time of 71.49 seconds was faster than all but one
of those for the 2006 season when useful, but not high class, Si Foo ran
70.93 seconds on very firm ground. The other three fast times on more normal
going were by Scarlet Runner at 72.00s (Dual Group 3 winner), Jo'Burg 72.01
(5th in the Coventry) and Sakhee's Secret 72.2s (who seems to be doing
alright for himself and favourite for the July Cup).
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There was a tailwind in the race but even so a 71.49s by a horse that finished
strongly and looked like he would be better suited by 7f has to be taken
seriously. The B2yoR estimate for the performance is 71 which makes it
joint 4th best (behind Kingsgate Native, Winker Watson and Vhujon (who
we probably saw the best of FTO)). That means he's already up to Listed
class and with normal improvement a strong contender in Group class races.
As a physical type he's a typical compact, deep bodied and strongly muscled
specimen (Pictures - [1],
[2], [3])
of his sire Dr Fong (whom Meehan likes). It is interesting to compare him
to Doctor
Brown by the same sire and second in a Group 2 race for the trainer
last year. On the pictures Sharp Nephew looks a better type. He was bought
as a yearling by bloodstock agent Tony Nerses whose reputation has gone
up notably in the last two years since he started buying higher priced
yearlings for the Kuwaitis S. Homeizi & I. Sagar. Those buys include
Araafa and Authorized and Monday's events at Windosr suggest strongly they
have another good one with Sharp Nephew.
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Wolgan Valley
finished second, again, after setting the strong pace that led to the fast
time and being clear going into the final furlong. He's a lengthier type
than Sharp Nephew with a good, diamond-like, geometry front to back although
just a medium size and build. He cost Godolphin $1,450,000 as a 2yo earlier
this year which presumably means he 'breezed' through 1 furlong in well
under 11 seconds. At the walk he isn't that athletic behind and ran better
in the race than that would suggest. If you forget his run at Haydock he
has finished second to two of the best 2yos of the year in the other races
and had them both pressed for pace at some stage. The Haydock results either
suggests Secret Asset is very good with the third winning well since to
bolster the form or Wolgan Valley didn't run to his best. It is easy to
knock expensive horses when they run up a series of '2s' but on what he
showed here he can rate higher on a fast 5f.
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Oasis Wind
came to the race with a 'reputation' and the Racing Post 'Lambourn' correspondent
said he had shown up in prep work as well as Luck Money (debut winner and
3rd in the Coventry) and River Proud (debut winner and possible runner
in July Stakes). At the sales he had received an above average report with
the note he was below average size but very heavily built and only just
moved the weight well enough as a yearling. On paddock inspection here
he has changed somewhat and grown well in frame and while still powerful
is a little more lengthy and less powerful behind. The first picture doesn't
show that too well so try this one - [1].
He was supported as second favourite and ran a solid race without looking
the higher class runner the other two above did. He was typically lively
and fit enough for the day and on the evidence of this run below their
standard but with scope to strengthen further.
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In rating a maiden race at 70+ it is good to see gaps back to the runners
with previous form so that they don't get ratings which appear to have
improved notably. If rating the winner at 70 means half the field are 10-15
points above their 'normal level' then the ratings are probably wrong and
the race over-valued (we all want to believe in good horses, after all).
The fourth and fifth horses in this maiden both rated higher than previously
and are a slight niggle over the rating. Golden
Penny has improved physically since his Newbury debut and a rating
in the 50s possible for him but the performance here, if correctly rated
means he needs to excuse his Brighton run. He has followed the route (May
debut, Brighton STO) of his trainer's best 2yo in 2006 and his early 2yo
runners are usually the better types and can need racing to develop with
(like Prince Tamino, his first colt to run in 2005, who took three goes
to win a minor maiden and got rated 100+ at 3yo). Interesting to see whether
he upholds the form next time.
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In fifth was Tobogganist
(poor picture) who had shown nothing in an empty Class 3 maiden on debut
but much better here. He had a good sales report although didn't seem to
have developed much. He is more of a niggle than Golden Penny and one to
check on his next run. In sixth was Latin
Scholar who had filled out since Goodwood FTO and in very good condition.
His 2nd at Bath looked like a staying performance by a horse who has the
reaching movement of a longer distance horse. The fact that he found this
fast 6f race too slick fits well with that model although he's a better
horse than his rating here would suggest. Depending how his career develops
he's the type to iron out some field over 8f in a maiden or nursery (although
that Bath 2nd will no doubt get him a stiff Official Rating).
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The runners in 7th-9th were far enough back to get believable ratings and
B2yoR has a positive view on Spent
who was the least fit in the field and ran much better than his 9th place
suggests. He tracked the pace comfortably enough in 4th-5th for a long
way before fading and has the size and scope to win an open maiden and
improve with racing. The filly Smokey
Rye was first into the pre-parade and very immature and lacking quality.
On the plus side were her size and powerfully built enough to compete at
low 50s level.
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There was a likeable 8 length 'garbage gap' back to the 10th+ which you
would expect if the placed horses are useful and ran to high ratings. For
example, the worst type was the lightly made Ledgerwood
who was fitter than most horses (of any age) that you see at the course).
Lunatico
was at the compact, tubby, unathletic end of the scale by comparison.
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In summary a fascinating maiden of it's type and most interesting to see
how the first 6 plus Spent and Smokey Rye go on and how classy the winner
is.
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