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The Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket's July Course over 6f has 15 declared
with 11 of them having run at Royal Ascot. Three were in the 5f Queen Mary
- winner Elletelle (penalised 3lb), fourth Francesca D'Gorgio and 16th
Kylayne. The other 8 come from the 6f Albany Stakes, in order, You'resothrilling
(2nd), Aide Memoir (4th), Cute (5th), Janina (6th), Waveline (7th), Loch
Jipp (9th), Festoso (11th) & Eileens Violet (12th). The four remaining
fillies include Thought Is Free who ran second in the 6f Listed Empress
Stakes here 10 days ago, two recent AW debut winners for reliable younger
trainers (Green Oasis & Eat Pie) and newcomer Nahoodh. The final named
represents the same trainer and owner combination that won the Albany with
Nijoom Dubai. Owner Jaber Abdullah regularly gets these better fillies
via the Channon stable in various ways and Nahoodh has missed two previous
debuts because of the wet ground. The 'Class Ladder' for the race is below.
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The Queen Mary winner Elletelle was keeping on well at the end of the race
and suggesting this 6f shouldn't be beyond her. She is on the small side
and with a 3lb penalty ought to find the best of the field a little too
strong. Jeremy Noseda ran Francesca D'Gorgio in the 5f Queen Mary and Baffled
in the 6f Albany at Royal Ascot and both ran like the race distance was
too short for them, getting outpaced as the efforts got made 2f from home
and then keeping on well late into the last furlong. On profile and run
style she seems likely to improve from her performance in the Queen Mary
and compete well here.
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Looking at the eight fillies who ran in the Albany Stakes a natural question
is why should the order they finished in be any different. Given usable
ground and no draw bias at Newmarket (although the centre to far side often
looks better) why shouldn't they run to much the same level? The runner-up
You'resothrilling had too apparent excuses for a performance below her
best with missing the break by a couple of lengths and then getting blocked
as she looked to make her later race run (the winner went by her at this
point as she was getting clear).
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The second of those points is valid but missing the break may have been
an advantage. After a furlong she, along with Nijoom Dubai, Waveline, Cute
and Aide Memoire were is a close group together at the back of the far
side group. In effect they missed the fastish pace and were on the far
side which proved to be the best ground through the week. The last three
fillies on that list all made notable ground later in the race down the
same path that the winner and You'resothrilling took and all seemed to
run better then expected. None of them stood out in physical terms so it
seems likely they had the advantage of track bias and race position.
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The filly who had none of those advantages at Ascot was Janina who raced
closest to the pace of the first 9 home (the 10th was Miss Versatile who
pressed the leader in third and has placed a solid third in a Listed race
since) and furthest over to the stands' side. She didn't stop in the last
2f and was still going on at the line but couldn't find the forward effort
of the group over towards the far rail. There is a fair chance that wasn't
entirely her fault given the later successes for high drawn horses in the
big field handicaps at the Royal Meeting. She did stand out as a physical
type although a little lightly made behind.
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In summary, after the Albany Stakes we were all left wondering where Nijoom
Dubai's improvement had come from, an issue discussed in a Preview at the
time. The rest of the result made some sort of sense if you factored in
some far side bias. None of the fillies behind You'resothrilling on her
side appeal as likely improvers so she sets the standard. Janina is the
most likely to step forward from that race and has the physical size and
scope to challenge for the win. Elleteel should run well but likely to
find one or two better at the weights. Francesca D'Gorgio the best each-way
alternative to surprise. Of the other Green Oasis should come out best
but short of the top four on profile and achievement.
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The card also features a 7f maiden which has a tradition for producing
strong fields with great future significance. You can already hear the
TV pundit saying "..set your Videos for this one there are sure to be lots
of winners out of it...". Well, sometimes there are and sometimes there
aren't. A look at last year's - Result
- shows three later winners, none above Novice level, and a lot of disappointing
types behind midfield. Try as you might there weren't any real 'eyecatchers'
to find. As a general point the 'emptyness' of many Newmarket maidens would
make an interesting article and the big stables may run a their lesser
types close to home. This field has plenty of juveniles from the 'right'
connections who cost enough money and/or are well realted but what will
the race actually produce in terms of later winners.
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Empty Newmarket maidens brings us to Godolphin and Rio
De La Plata. We shouldn't complain of course, at least he's made it
to the track, where are the stacks of 2yos of 2006 that never ran?? Where's
Bold Glance? Anyway, he made a so-so debut in a weak looking maiden at
the track and not far in fromt of the seller quality Betty's Touch. He
got into a little bother as he made his forward move but it wasn't happening
very quickly anyway. Opposing runners from that race seems a reasonable
approach. Strategic Mission was supported on his debut and at the time
it looked a less than sparkling first effort in the initial southern 7f
maiden of the year at Sandown. It looks a little better with the good win
of the fifth but the trainer's runners haven't tended to go on much from
debut recently. He sets the standard to beat for those that have run ahead
of Hamdan's first string Mujaadel
but looks vulnerable to a better newcomers.
-
Peter Chapple-Hyam's Visconti is
likely to be one of the better prepared debuts but looked short of better
class at the sales and probably poor value at shorter odds. The three that
appeal most as strong debuts are Exhibition,
Jabal Tariq & at longer odds
Dubai Samurai. Neville Callaghan
has only run one in the race in the last few years with Kilworth a supported
second in 2005. He got Exhibition from the Coolmore team to train as recompense
for them taking Excellent art away to Ballydoyle but he has made very positive
remarks about this colt and the better ones make better debuts for him.
Jabal Tariq cost 300,000 guineas as a half brother to Best Of The Bests
and several not anyway near as good. He looked above average at the sales
but not high class and a likely solid debut here. His trainer has a mixed
record with debuts at the course over 7f with mostly places in good years
and none placed in 2006, for example. In general, the better ones will
place and occasionally win (like Killybegs to make the point over quality)
FTO. SPs tend to be a mild indicator.
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Trainer John Hills would be on a B2yoR list of trainers to be wary of but
when he has a good one he does tend to try to get them to show up well
on debut. He has only run four on debut at the track in recent years with
a 16/1 winner and a 50/1 3rd by useful types and an unplaced run for another
useful type. He has been very positive about Dubai Samurai in interview
and he has the profile to support the view he could be the longer price
surprise type.
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LINGFIELD NURSERY :-
| Horse |
Official
Rating |
B2yoR
[Est] |
Difference |
Notes |
| Ten Down |
87 |
62 (59-58) |
-25 |
Small, precocious. 87 a high rating and shown
signs of form tailing. Trainer has good record getting nursery wins though. |
| Concertmaster |
84 |
56 |
-28 |
Improved last time with stable in better form. 84 high but
usable in this close knit handicap where being in-from with a little scope
will matter. |
| Ben |
79 |
53
(Last 3 = 44-48-34) |
-27 |
Ready physical type on season's first day behind
two others in this race. Signs of form tailing. 79 ought to be too high. |
| Victorian Bounty |
77 |
60 |
-17 |
Rating of 60 from Edinburgh race suspect given performance
of horses behind later. Not paddock reviewed. |
| Maybe I Wont |
76 |
50 |
-26 |
Trainer unreliable and a little over-rated. Unappealing
profile. |
| Carolini Blini |
73 |
49 |
-24 |
Shown a little improvement for AW and development but doesn't
come from strong races. |
| A Wish For You |
71 |
47 (36-32) |
-24 (-35) |
Best rating suspect, excuses last time but overall form
level and quality below a 71. |
| Choisky |
71 |
44 (22-20) |
-27 |
Two poor fades either side of staying on from well behind
at Kempton. |
| Hucking Harmony |
70 |
43 (42) |
-27 |
Frantic pacemaker who has more ability than she has shown
if she could ever settle. |
| Flying Indian |
70 |
47 (43-27) |
-23 (-27) |
On paddock review she looked a 65-70 OR type on her debut
and 70 not unusable in a weaker race. Has looked better at 6f and 5f form
less god. |
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