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Two interesting maidens at Windsor although not obviously strong ones and,
in general, sprint maidens can start to lack depth later into the season
and be weak late on. The 5f maiden has a long tail of moderate performers
on the day by profile and the winner ought to come from the three witht
he most obvious form credentials - Imperial
Mint, Art Sale & Zippi
Jazzman. The latter pair have looked a little below average in paddock
review and do not set a strong standard but this isn't a tough field and
should compete well. Both have solid draws and Art Sale can be rated a
little better than his last run when he raced with the half of the field
that went stands' side at Bath and forfeited ground to the first two home.
Zippi Jazzman pressed the pace on debut and finished third behind two ordinary
fillies (say 70-75 Official raters) and the rest of the field was discountable
for the future aside from possibly Orton Park who was a better physical
type than Zippi. The standard they set here is low 50s.
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Of more interest on profile is Imperial Mint who made his debut in a 6f
race at Thirsk that his trainer had used to introduce the useful He's A
Humbug in 2006. He ran very well for more than 5f there and more than a
length clear coming down to the last furlong before getting passed by Sir
Gerry and fading himself. That winner is though to be better class and
he drops a furlong here and onto better going and a rare runner for the
trainer at the course. He makes much more appeal as a better type who might
set a stronger standard here. Assuming the Good to Firm going remains in
place the stands' rail bias should come back into play and his draw is
not ideal but he showed enough pace first time to get to a usable position
near the rail.
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The profile shows a gap between those three and the others rated below
40 with only Mesmerize Me in
the space. His trainer gets odd debut winners with really useful 2yos but
more than half this season (not unusual) have lost ground early for various
reasons. He's poorly drawn for a faster ground race and seems to be one
to assess for the future. At the sales he looked a solid 2yo prospect with
some size and range and up to Zippi Jazzman's standard, for example, in
the longer term at least. His trainer has said he's grown a lot to 2yo
and may not be suited by a fast 5f and perhaps need a more galloping track.
He has also had to be gelded because he was too much of a 'lad'. Interesting
to see how he looks in the preliminaries. Of those rated below 40 on profile
the Hannon's Hit The Roof is
a full brother to a poor 2yo for them last year and the best of the Callaghan
pair may be the most likely to 'surprise' if there is one. The well drawn
filly Woodcote Wildcat drops
to 5f from 7f after getting into the race from a blown break last time
and may be the better of the two.
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The Windsor 6f maiden looks more open by comparison with a host
of possible 'lurkers' in a field where Lady
Aquitaine sets a middling standard with a solid draw. Trainer Brian
Meehan usually runs his better precocious types in the early season maidens
at Newmarket's Rowley Mile course and Lady Aquitaine ran in a 6f maiden
there on debut at a relatively short price. She didn't run well there and
looked short of nous. Stepped up to 7f next time she ran well in a race
which has produced later winners in the places in front and behind her.
She's back to 6f which may not be ideal and she's likely to be favourite
and may well be one to oppose on her overall profile.
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However, there isn't a strong profile in opposition and with many of the
others you are depending upon improvement or above average debut performances.
Palm Court's form is moderate and he hasn't looked up to average standard
and the SPs he has run at tend to support that view. Caradoc Place was
first string for his trainer on heavy ground on debut but failed badly
and the jockey had no obvious reason for it beyond the going. He looked
just ordinary (50s rater) on paddock review but with the caveat that between
the rain and the rugs it was difficult to get a handle on what the horses
actually looked like. There are several other 'possibles' in the newcomers
with Aye Aye Digby covered above, Harlequinn Danseur a likely above average
debut for a trainer who gets places on debut at long SPs (but has a poor
record overall) and has missed various engagements to wait for better ground.
The best of them int he longer term may well be Pasta Prayer for Neville
Callaghan but he gets debut wins with his best 2yos in early season typically
(as with Gaspar Van Wittel this year) and he would need to be that level
to win here. In summary a race which cries out for some guidance from the
paddock view on the evening to sort out the possibles into 'Today', 'Sometime'
and 'Never'.
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The Newmarket July meeting saw minor changes to the ratings for
the top 2yos so far with the Royal Ascot form holding up well enough in
the Cherry Hinton and July Stakes. The first of those is a difficult race
to read with the fillies spread all across the track and with the far side
group setting a much stronger pace and not quite seeing the full 6f out
on the uphill finish. The winner You'resothrilling didn't have the problems
she encountered at Ascot and is rated 5 points higher on 80. Festoso ran
well above her Ascot form but it is possible she underperformed there and
her pedigree and profile support the belief whe is a 75+ filly. More niggling
is that in a finish with the fillies not that spread out two that ran with
the winner up the stands' rail seem to have overperformed. Kylayne improved
her rating to 72 and it seems likely that is too high and helped by the
stands' advantage. The most interesting run was by the maiden Francesca
D'Gorgio who set a strong pace on her own up the far rail in first time
blinkers and kept going remarkably well int he circumstances. She seems
likely to be a leader amongst those that can still improve further.
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The July Stakes saw the top three on profile fill the first three places
and Winker Watson rated at 87 and now joint top with Henrythenavigator.
The race didn't make it easy for him and he can clearly rate 90+ with a
better path through the race. The jockey said after the race that the horse
"got him out of trouble" and he certainly showed a sustained ability to
make ground which is unusual. At any level of racing an 'effort' later
in the race, even a 'quickening' one, may make 2-3 length in a sprint event,
four at most and then peter out. Winker Watson made more than the usual
effort to get from last to close up on River Proud and Dark Angel and then
found more and still look capable of responding going to the line.
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Regular readers will know that Newmarket maiden that Shifting Star won
from Fortuity (see Result) has
been featured here before and cited as an example of an 'empty' race. After
last week you'd have to say it wasn't 'empty' but certainly the result
is baffling. The first has run well in an Ascot nursery at the weekend
but he looked comfortably the best hore and 'fair enough'. The second has
failed as odds-on favourite but a number of Gosden 2yos have done that
this year. One of them - Master Chef - came back in blinkers to win well
at Ascot on Friday. The third was Rio De La Plata and he moved into the
top ten raters for the season with his maiden win at the July Meeting.
The time and distances back to the beaten horses seem to confirm the view
that he was a Group class performer.
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But, if we go back to his debut run he was just ahead of two 50/1 shots,
one beaten since. Then came Soute's Flawed Genius who won in workmanlike
style at Salisbury to days ago and a runner already beaten in a seller.
The 8th to 12th have looked poor and include another seller failure but
the 13th ran well behind Sharp Nephew 8 days ago. An empty race with some
diamonds in it but with the abilities mixed up. The two later winner made
most places from halfway in a slow pace race which is perhaps one indicator
but it may indicate that Godolphin are going through another 'nice intro'
phase. When David Loder did the 2yos he got various orders and his debut
strike rates varied from 40% to 8% as he obeyed. Each time their 2yo crop
fails to produce anything and/or train on they tend to try another (perhaps
previously discarded) approach. Since the results aren't improving a bit
of novel thinking might be needed here, perhaps it isn't the approach but
the raw material that's the problem. If the horses aren't the right physical
types when you but them the approach isn't going to change much.
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A final point to mention the likeable debut made by Fast Company at Salisbury
on Saturday in the second division of the 6f maiden in a faster time than
Flawed Genius. Brian Meehan used only to get debut winners with Group class
performers and they still tend to have to be high class to win FTO. Last
week he gave us a debut win by Sharp Nephew with had some markers of a
high class type and Fast Company, on TV viewing, looked immature mentally
but ultimately just 'Too big & too good' for his opponents. Mind you,
Achilles Of Troy (also by Danehill Dancer) looked the same from a distance,
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