British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season Race Preview

British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season

Racing Preview - July 18th

Today's Races

[315] : Catterick 2:30, 7f Novice (5)

[316] : Kempton AW 6:50, 7f Nursery (5)

[317] : Kempton AW 7:20, 7f Maiden Fillies' (4)

[318] : Lingfield AW 2:20, 6f Maiden Fillies' (5)

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Trainer :
Paddock Review :	Some brief feedback from Windsor on Monday where Imperial Mint won well enough but did not convince as better class on paddock review and more of a Novice race level winner. Small and lightly made with it he seems to rely on his fluent movement rather than power for his ability and difficult to see him going much further up the ability ladder (unlike the small, but more powerful, Wi Dud in 2006 by contrast). Difficult to work up much enthusiasm for any of the others in that 5f maiden as ones to follow. In the 6f maiden the surprise was the Malcolm Suanders filly Polar Annie (no winner) who was as big a frame but more heavily built than the winner for example. Unfortunately, she made some 'eyecatching' late progress into 5th but her physical set-up suggests that wasn't just empty promise closing into faders. Trainer's have physical types that they like and you could go to the yearling sales and point to examples which you know certain trainers will bid ofr just on looks. Nigel Tinkler has a below average record with 2yos and he buys small, compact, middling build types which are going to be 60s (official level) at best. They all look the same and compete moderately. When he buys them all for 5-10,000 guineas there is some excuse although you can find better types in that price range but not with the physical geometry he looks for. At Windsor he ran Harlequinn Danseur come south to find some better ground. He cost £50,000 so you some of imagine he won't be ought of the same trainer mould, ought to have a bit more about him. But, no, still the same thing - Picture. By comparison, at Lingfield a bigger model filly who cost less as a yearling runs second time out after a quiet debut in a weak Goodwood maiden back in May. Let's see how Bermacha can get on after a development break.
Ratings :
Other :

July 18th Summary :

The Kempton 7f Nursery is a typical example of how lacking in real quality and potential they can be. 14 runners but only three winners, 1 at seller grade, and the two successful in 'better' races lumbered heavily compared to what they actually achieved. Three of the other runners above the 'Break Point' ran to a rating of Zero last time and the bottom eight have managed two moderate places above selling race standard. If you look at horses as physical types then Eva's Request ought to find it tough off 84 but she has a little scope and is 'in form' while opposed by a mostly unappealing group who are also weighed down.
Of those above the break point the three in green look to have usable Official Marks in this group and L'Art Du Silence has the physical presence to compete for the win off 74 here. Looking for possible improvers with physical scope below the break isn't particularly fruitful and Insomnitas is a possible to assess on the day. In summary a low quality affair an unlikely to have much longer term significance beyond those that manage to place.

Horse	Official Rating	B2yoR [Est]	Difference	Notes
Eva's Request	84	50	-34	Classic example of an Official mark based on what a Channon winner 'ought' to get rather than what she achieved. Late pick-up over 6f last time to win a weak race at the course. Steps to 7f but 84 ought to be too high in a competitive nursery. This isn't a strong race and she at least has some prospect of improvement. Like to see her at the 9/2+ each-way range although likely to be less and close to favourite and unappealing as value at that range.
Sourire	81	46	-35	Another treated harshly on what she did to win but has to be high because she's a winner. Lacked pace at various stages in previous races and middling draw here on sharp track. May well find it tough.
Fortuity	76	53 (49)	-23 (27)	Literal reading of his second at Newmarket misleading where he had an easy lead and set a modest pace. Failed badly up to 7f at Catterick last time. On a usable mark in this group but two big 'Ifs' with his need to vome back to form and poorly drawn.
L'Art Du Silence	74	50 (39)	-24	Another on the 5-6-7f upwards route as lack of pace shows up and also with a bad failure last time. Looked in excellent condition at Windsor and as a physical type up to competing well off 74 in this context. Never looked happy on the Heavy ground last time and niggled along from the start. His trainer's runners tend to show their best form early and tail off but if he can't make a strong bid here from a good draw the hard to see where to go with him.
Rough Rock	72	51 (46-48)	-21 (-26)	7th in a moderate Class 3 Nursery at Newmarket last week which wasn't a lot tougher than this one despite the tinsel attached to it. Blinkered first time. Tubby little chap and not particularly athletic and not obvious 'break out' material.
Lady Sandicliffe	71	38 (31)	-31	The break point between runners with some reasonable form and those below without it and/or seller types. Not paddock reviewed but 71 high on what she has done.
Gulf Coast	69	34 (28)	-35	Another 5-6-7f type and competed moderately in each time in modest races.
Seventh Cloud	69	41 (34)	-28 (-35)	69 too high even on her over-rated effort here. Small and lacks scope.
Rubytwosox	66	34	-32	66 too high on her efforts so far. Has a little physical scope but hasn't show enough.
Talk Of Saafend	64	36 (27)	-28 (-37)	Small, lightly made and gormless as well. Trainer can get 2yos to develop physically and in condition and bring them back looking 'new' but she starts from too low a physical base.
Insomnitas	62	25 (20)	-37	Not seen since the yearling sales when he looked better than a '62' rater. Too free on debut and second run and exercise in teaching him to settle. Most interesting of the lower weights to see in Paddock Review.
Yes Meg	61	32 (22)	-29	Seller winner.
Distant Noble	61 (OH 2)	34 (27)	-27	Beaten in a seller.
Nathan Dee	61 (OH 5)	26 (24)	-35	Better physical type than a 61 but presumably has mental (and perhaps physical problems) and Hannon's allowed him to go in a claimer. Refused to try properly last time despite a whacking and claimed by another trainer. Poorly drawn and one to check for signs of life.

The 7f Maiden fillies' race sees Maybe I Will (links to L'Art Du Silence via their Lingfield meeting) come out top on profile at the '52' level. Binfield makes no appeal on what she has achieved and her trainer has yet to have a 2yo winner despite some having shown more promise. The 52 level could be bettered by a strong debut by a newcomer but, on profile, those from the leading stables seem likely to make the 40-50 range unless they are well above average. Barry Hills debuts over 7f each season tend to show a similar pattern each year. The initial ones tend not to place although they will include the odd good runner. Through later July and into the first week in August he will get odd debut wins and places with better types and shorter SPs (say 7/2 or less) are a good sign. The debuts in this period will include runners of varying ability and his two runners here - first string Hamalka plus Challow Hills seem likely to be ordinary debuts for average types unless the vibes tell a different story. His four debuts at 7f so far have given a fourth place at best by STO winner Kay Es Jay in a similar event at the course.
Brian Meehan also runs two and his last three debuts have been untypically strong with debut wins for Sharp Nephew & Fast Company and a third at the July Meeting for filly Sweet Kiss (he often takes his better types to the Newmarket courses). It is unlikely that either Rhode Island Red or Medici Gold are better types and that would mean a lower 40s debut at best and the 3rd-6th range here for the best of the pair. Mick Channon withdrew two Jaber Abdullah owned fillies which should have made their debut in June at Newbury because of heavy ground. One of those - Nahoodh- ran in the Cherry Hinton with market support and Dream Sea runs here. She also looks like an average one and would place at best if she were. In summary and interesting race to watch for the future to see which of the fillies from the major stables has the potential to win. The best of them, on profile Rhode Island Red & Hamalka, would need to be better debuts to beat the standard set by Maybe I Will & Binfield.

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