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The LeicesterNursery is a Class 4 and, in theory, an above average
contest but the field is below average with just two previous winners and
one of those in a seller. The topweight Sauze D'Oulx cost just 4,000 guineas
and is a small, precocious type by the cult sire Makbul who has a good
record of getting early season winners. Aided by his readiness he has competed
well from his debut in the fourth race of the season but has no scope to
develop. An 84 rating ought to be too much for him in a stronger race but
in this field he sets a reasonable standard although you feel that one
of others, at least, will have just enough improvement to make use of the
weight difference.
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The table shows that the 'Break Point' between the known, or possible,
open maiden winners starts right below Sauze D'Oulx (who probably couldn't
win one after early season) and Maracana Boy and Lady Nova looked poorly
treated on what thye have achieved. The first has looked the typical small,
compact, neat but limited type the Michael Dods buys on the cheap (like
Nigel Tinkler you can 'spot' his type at the yearling sales). Lady Nova
has a little more about her but has shown even less form although Stan
Moore does get 2yos to develop with racing. Carrickmacross has lacked pace
at various points in his three all-weather runs and didn't see out 6f last
having been hung 4 wide on Wolverhampton's bends. He moves to turf and
has an average chance int he group.
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Of interest is Choisky who represents the first test of the Lingfield Nursery
won by Concertmaster where the solid pace allowed the field to finish in
a heap as the closers bunched up into those who had raced prominently late
one. She hadn't looked to stay 5f on turf on her previous two tries but
has got behind before plugging onto into faders in two goes round all weather
bends. She ought to be able to compete in this group off 63. The longer
priced alternative to surprise would be Happy Hacker who has one piece
of form which would allow him to compete well here even though he is 4lbs
out of the handicap. His lesser runs were when his trainer was not in form
with his 2yos and when he hung right through the race at Chepstow.
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In summary a dreadful Class 4 event with the 'Class' of the field a smaller,
precocious, 2yo who we have seen the best of. None of the others have shown
anything that positive which means you are looking for excuses and dealing
with below average physical types. As with Insomnitas at Kempton yesterday
that isn't an approach to use unless you have to. Chosky comes out top
on profile and showed enough in a slightly stronger Nursery last time to
at least believe she can compete well here.
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