British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - July 19th 
Today's Races
  • [319] : Folkestone 6:25, 5f Novice Fillies' (4)
  • [320] : Folkestone 7:00, 6f Novice (4)
  • [321] : Hamilton 2:20, 5f Auction (6)
  • [322] : Leicester 2:10, 6f Nursery (4)
  • [323] : Leicester 2:40, 5f Seller (6)
  • [324] : Sandown 6:10, 5f Maiden (5)

  • Checkout
    Trainer :
  • Trainer Roger Charlton has a consistent approach to 2yo racing and a solid record overall. His earlier runners each season usually include most of the winners. Only his best 2yos win on debut and he is a 'peak STO' trainer. The earliest debuts each year often compete a little worse than his average and can take 3-4 runs to show their best.
  • In 2006 the earliest starters were in May and early June but his first wins did not come until into July. Typically, three of the first five 2yo runners that year were winners with two other placing and lacking the ability to win an open maiden.
  • This year he has followed a similar patern but none of the first three debuts has yet won. He produced his first better debut runner at last week's July meeting when Fifteen Love was second to Rio De La Plata in what looked a strong maiden. He runs Sailor At Sea on his second outing at Sandown after an unpromising debut although at a shorter SP than normal. The form shown by him on debut was poor although he had some excuse in that he showed inexperience. The stable ought to be getting into better form with it's 2yos and Sailor At Sea's run an indicator of what to expect.
  • In the Sandown race the experienced runner Ben ran well in a Lingfield Nursery and sets a reasonable standard from a good draw. The Lingfield form will get some sort of test when Choisky runs at Leicester earlier in the day. The race features a group of runner with ordinary form (Ben on top with Our Acquaintance, Sandy Par and The Name Is Frank close behind on estimates) and a number of possible improvers. Sailor At Sea is one of those along with Don't Tell Anna (who seemed to get a Hughes 'test out' ride last time) for whom the 'market' will probably be a good indicator of what the Hannon team expect. They won two maidens yeserday with fillies with 'bits of form' and have a good line on the ability of most of their 5-6f horses.
  • A note to watch out for Totally Focussed who cost £50,000 as a 2yo and drops from 7f to 5f. He is with trainer Simon Dow who gives the impression of being more interested in horse's mental welfare than winning races at times. Despite his breeze-up background this one looked well short of the fitness required on debut and no surprise to see him fade badly over 7f. On the plus side he's a good physical type but difficult to predict how he will develop givent he trainer.
  • Paddock Review :
    Ratings :
  • The Folkestone 5f Novice Fillies' profile has Littlemisssunshine - about six lengths clear of the others on ratings. Her mark of 70 from the Queen Mary is backed up by 60s figures for seconds to good class 2yos in Satrlit Sands and Mount Pleasure. In short, if she reproduces her best form she whould win comfortably. It is a little odd to see an apprentice and Cheekpieces applied though as if she were a horse dropping into a seller and needing all the aids legally allowed. The trainer has 3 winners from 4 with horses that had vision headgear applied in 2006 after beginning their careers without it so that doesn't seem a problem overall.She has raced prominently and kept on well enough in race so doesn't seem dependent on somthing else making the pace either. What could go wrong...
  • Other :


      July 19th Summary : 
     
    • The LeicesterNursery is a Class 4 and, in theory, an above average contest but the field is below average with just two previous winners and one of those in a seller. The topweight Sauze D'Oulx cost just 4,000 guineas and is a small, precocious type by the cult sire Makbul who has a good record of getting early season winners. Aided by his readiness he has competed well from his debut in the fourth race of the season but has no scope to develop. An 84 rating ought to be too much for him in a stronger race but in this field he sets a reasonable standard although you feel that one of others, at least, will have just enough improvement to make use of the weight difference.
    • The table shows that the 'Break Point' between the known, or possible, open maiden winners starts right below Sauze D'Oulx (who probably couldn't win one after early season) and Maracana Boy and Lady Nova looked poorly treated on what thye have achieved. The first has looked the typical small, compact, neat but limited type the Michael Dods buys on the cheap (like Nigel Tinkler you can 'spot' his type at the yearling sales). Lady Nova has a little more about her but has shown even less form although Stan Moore does get 2yos to develop with racing. Carrickmacross has lacked pace at various points in his three all-weather runs and didn't see out 6f last having been hung 4 wide on Wolverhampton's bends. He moves to turf and has an average chance int he group.
    • Of interest is Choisky who represents the first test of the Lingfield Nursery won by Concertmaster where the solid pace allowed the field to finish in a heap as the closers bunched up into those who had raced prominently late one. She hadn't looked to stay 5f on turf on her previous two tries but has got behind before plugging onto into faders in two goes round all weather bends. She ought to be able to compete in this group off 63. The longer priced alternative to surprise would be Happy Hacker who has one piece of form which would allow him to compete well here even though he is 4lbs out of the handicap. His lesser runs were when his trainer was not in form with his 2yos and when he hung right through the race at Chepstow.
    • In summary a dreadful Class 4 event with the 'Class' of the field a smaller, precocious, 2yo who we have seen the best of. None of the others have shown anything that positive which means you are looking for excuses and dealing with below average physical types. As with Insomnitas at Kempton yesterday that isn't an approach to use unless you have to. Chosky comes out top on profile and showed enough in a slightly stronger Nursery last time to at least believe she can compete well here.
    Horse Official
    Rating
    B2yoR
    [Est]
    Difference
    Sauze D'Oulx 84 63 (59-58) -21
    Maracana Boy 73 43 (39) -30
    Lady Nova 67 31 (28) -36
    Carrickmacross 65 44 (40) -21
    Choisky 63 44 (43) -19
    Secret Meaning 60 (OH 1) 30 (22) -30
    Happy Hacker 60 (OH 4) 37? (23) -23 (-37)
    Hyper Viper 60 (OH 7) 38? (29) -22 (-31)
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