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Eight declared for the 'Gimcrack' and not an obviously high class version
unless one of the runners is capable of stepping forward in the way that
Fast Company did in the 7f Acomb Stakes yesterday. That horse had more
than hinted that he was capable of that type of performance on his debut
against an ordinary maiden field at Salisbury on his debut. Despite being
very inexperienced he had shown an ability to quicken that day to get from
4th entering the final furlong to be a clear winner and still going away
at the finish. He showed that ability again clearly against better opposition
at York although it the second had taken three goes to win an Irish maiden
and the third is presumably an 85-95 handicapper despite the hike to a
100+ official rating he will have to get for placing in a Group race.
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The season hasn't really taken shape yet with the top rank of British 2yos
and Fast Company can now be added to Winker Watson and Rio De La Plata
as those which have shown enough of something 'different' to suggest they
they can go on to rate 90+ and make up part of the elite. The lower raters
like Strike The Deal and Art Advisor were beaten easily enough by the French
filly Natagora when they ran in the Morny. That filly then was easily beaten
by the Irish colt Myboycharlie (purchased by the Coolmore operation) last
weekend.
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In general phrases such as "Group 1 winner" and "Group Company" are used
as if they refer to an absolute level, or at least a narrow band, of ability.
This isn't the case and races can vary in quality by more than 14lbs from
year to year and the 2yo sector can vary widely through the season in Group
Company (discussed further later). If we consider the last two fields for
the Gimcrack these are the fields in their finishing orders :-
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2006 = Conquest, Wi Dud, Bodes Galaxy, Elhamri, He's A Humbug, Armigerent.
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2005 = Amadeus Wolf, Red Clubs, Assertive, Mutawajid, Sir Xaar, Balthazaar's
Gift, Titus Alone, Savile Road, Advanced, Pacific Pride, Mullaad, Supercast,
Playtotheaudience.
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Which, we think, means that last year's field hasn't managed a win yet
this year - probably need to check that on B3yoR. The runners from Bodes
Galaxy back were smaller, obvious, 2yo types and haven't made much impact
since. Conquest was always vaguely bonkers and hasn't run up to his looks
yet at 3yo. The top end of the 2005 race was markedly better and both Amadeus
Wolf (Group 1 placed at 3yo) and Red Clubs (3yo Group 2 winner) have
competed well enough at the top level as older horses. Behind them was
the older Listed winner Assertive before you get into the handicappers
and borderline Listed types - with the exception of Balthazaar's Gift who
has always hinted at being better than that. But, if you stuck all the
runners behind Assertive from that 2005 edition in a line-up and asked
anyone to pick out the best physical type to take home for the future,
most would have taken Balthazaar's Gift.
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One message to take from the last two years is that 'class tells' in better
races and the better types usually get to the front. Which means that when
assessing Group races the 'Class Ladder' approach can be very useful. Which
are the better physical types with futures as older horses? Which horses
have shown something 'different' like an ability to quicken or an extended
later race effort capacity? The table that follows is for the Gimcrack
field.
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None of the field is rateable above 90 in Class terms on what they have
shown and only the top 3 plus, perhaps, Nacho Libre have some scope for
a higher rating. Swiss Franc only attracted a bid of 29,000 guineas at
the sales from anyone other than his owner and hasn't stop improving physically
since. He looked much better than he did on the sales on his Ascot debut
and has continued to fill out and mature. But he hasn't shown anything
'different' in his races, he has tended to be held up 2 lengths and more
off the pace at halfway, shown an effort to move forward inside 2 furlongs
from home and then kept on well late on in races. No, strong change-of-pace
but wearing other runners down. His improvement will plateau as well and
he he looks an 85-90 type which means he sets a good standard but not an
elite one. His run style of strong late finishes isn't necessarily suited
to this flat track either.
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In looking for alternatives with 'something' extra one possibility is the
unraced Great Barrier Reef. But, a big part of that comes from assuming
that Coolmore is so powerful that he 'must be some good' to be here. In
general you make a loss supporting O'Brien trained 2yos because the SPs
have a built-in 'Big Ogre' factor and you do have to remind yourself that
their 2yos are beatable (3-15 this year so far). The debut runners in Ireland
over recent seasons haven't been that well tuned either and they are happy
with 'nice intros'. This isn't a race they have targeted in recent years
either. So, it would be good if Great Barrier Reef is a 90+ star but you
wouldn't really want to be taking a shorter price about a First time success.
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Sir Gerry is interesting because he made his debut with a big reputation
from a very reliable trainer who does know how good his 2yos are. He was
disappointing next time when only getting from sixth (and last) place to
fourth in a slowly run race behind standard issue 70-80 types. He is presumably
a little better than he showed there but Fast Company, for example, would
have made a much better show and would have got to the front past a horse
like Fat Boy (who's probably an 'Assertive' future type).
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Which means that if you leave Great Barrier Reef to one side for a moment
Swiss Franc and Sir Gerry would both be strongish last furlong closers
past the combination of good handicappers that make up the rest of the
field and you take your choice. Instinct says that Sir Gerry probably has
a bit more scope than Swiss Franc and a bit more zip.
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The race brings uo some other interesting asides. Going back to thinking
about Group race quality try looking at the Result
for this year's Coventry Stakes and consider what strength that race actually
had. Everything from the 6th (Cee Bargara) back are handicappers/conditions
race types on what we have seen since. Mount Pleasure probably the same.
The first four, including Swiss Franc haven't really convinced as real
elite types. Although it's a Group 2 race (and raised to that level recently)
the Coventry is often a 'precociousness' test rather than an all-out quality.
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The Norfolk Stakes (Result)
was won by Winker Watson which gives it some credibility but looks even
emptier than the Coventry. Winker Watson looked to struggle that day and
didn't look a real 5f type and those behind him have competed poorly since
and not up to Group company. The race is over-rated and the filed behind
the victor made up of older handicappers.
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Nacho Libre ran in the Newbury maiden in early season that Winker Watson
won which has worked out poorly. He looked about the best physical type
in that group behind the winner and it is interesting that his trainer
runs him here. He has had two seconds in the race in recent years but both
those runners had already run in Group races and shown superior form. It
may be that Nacho Libre is a later developer and of the less obvious types
has the most scope to improve. Art Advisor runs for a trainer who has a
moderate record for developing his better 2yos through the season. Unless
he has changed his approach we have probably seen the best of him and that
leaves him short of what will be required. Easy Target beat Nacho Libre
last time but looked a smaller type with less scope.
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Kevin Ryan has had two very good seasons in 2005-6 with his 2yos and the
fact that Imperial Mint is the choice to run for the stable in this race
confirms he's having a lesser year. His current strike rate in 2007 is
9.4% compared to 20% to the same point in 2006. His 51 runners have produced
13 winners compared to 20 from 46 in the same comparison. He's only had
5 debut winners this year (1 in a seller and 1 in a poor AW race) compared
to 9 in 2006 to the same point, including both runners he ran in the 2006
Gimcrack. Still a solid season by ordinary standards but a thinner one
than he has been used to.
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What does the phrase 'flat spot' actually mean? Someone coined it in the
recent past and everyone uses it now as if we all should know the implication.
Does it mean outpaced? A horse that needs time to gather itself to make
an effort? A loss of concentration? Whatever, Paveroc certainly shows it
all his races. He appears to be a horse with a good cruising speed but
not much change of pace which means he can look awkward when caught up
in a late race sprint and ran his best race when keeping on in the last
furlong off a strong pace. He might well be better as a 7-8f runners but
ought to find this 6f too much.
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The Folkestone Auction race is at a much lower scale and we are
looking at a 40s rating to win rather than moaning a little about probably
only getting something 75-85. However, all races have a winner and there's
always something to be learned from the paddock review and B2yoR will be
there to see it rather than at York (for various reasons). Ruby Delta sets
the standard with a profile rating of 46 assuming a scratch of 8st 11lbs.
He has an official rating of 73 which is a little high for his physical
type although he has always looked in excellent condition in recent races
which suggests he is unlikely to show any improvement. Andrasta has a nursery
rating of 69 for 3 garbage efforts in early season and is a lesser type
and makes no appeal to beat Ruby Delta having to give him 1lb. Soggy Dollar
is likely to be the best type on show and got a sales rating which suggested
he should be a better specimen than Ruby Delta. They are both drawn high
and may well go far side if the field splits. They seem the most likely
options among those that have run. Brave Mave showed too little on debut
for a Willie Jarvis 2yo to be of real interest and his overall 2yo record
is below average.
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Of the newcomers Mistress Eva runs for Peter Winkworth whose runners regularly
show up well FTO and at all SPs. She is therefore one to assess on the
day. The trainer has said that she is a weak, backward sort and more of
a 3yo and that would fit with the later season debut. As with many trainers
his later debuts tend to be the less able 2yos. She also has a pedigree
which backs up those remarks.
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Of more interest is Sylvester Kirk's Moment's Notice. In a weak race he
was relatively expensive and by a sire - Beat Hollow - who has made a reasonable
start to his stud career in 2006-7. He looked a usable 2yo at the sales
at a low level (say arounf the 45-49 B2yoR level) which would make him
competitive here if he could run to that. However, his trainer doesn't
target strong debuts and a rating in the 30s more likely first time and
a 3rd-5th finish. When he debuts runners with ability the SP does usually
tell you with this trainer. In 2007 only 4 of his 17 FTO 2yos have started
at less than 10/1. Those four have included his best two runners (Ramona
Chase & Art Master) who both made second places and a solid 4th in
a weak AW event. So, one to really 'check in the market' unlike the majority
that get that recommendation because the author has nothing else to say.
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With that set up there may be a Paddock Review summary in the Friday Preview
if the field show up enough points of interest.
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