British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season
<< 2007 Season
Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - August 23rd 
Today's Races
  • [519] : Chester 6:40, 6.1f Auction (5)
  • [520] : Lingfield AW 2:25, 5f Nursery (6)
  • [521] : York 1:35, 6f DSL Sales Race 2)
  • [522] : York 2:05, 6f Group 2 Fillies' (1) "Lowther Stakes"

  •   August 23rd Summary : 
    • If you believe in Paddock Review then you like your horses to look like they perform, the better types should look the part and the seller and banded runners should look like rabbits. In 2yo maiden races size will matter and if there are two similarly set-up 2yos you'll do better backing the bigger one in the long term. There isn't much worse than tipping or backing a horse unseen on the basis of the form, pedigree, etc. and then seeing it in the flesh for the first time and realising this is going to be embarrasing because it is plain too small and limited. The correct view can then be taken of the form just on seeing that one horse which is one way that Paddock Review can help to put races into the proper context.
    • The maiden at Windsor on Monday gave a good example of how opportunities will arise to bypass all that hard work in form analysis, supposed sire ground preferences and the like. In a moderate looking race three of the fillies had shown some promise in previous races with a 6th in a Glorious Goodwood maiden for one and places in minor maidens for the others. If you hadn't seen them the form wasn't easy to equate and with no debut runner fancied these three were the only ones at less than 16/1 with the Goodwood form, unsurprisingly taken at face value as 'must be some good' and supplied the 11/10f although she had finished an unthreatening 6th.
    • Put all of that preamble to one side and look at the following four pictures of those three fillies plus the 16/1 winner. Which of these four would you want to put your money on if you believe size matters and you don't like punting on small ones? Can you spot the duff, small 11/10f and the strapping 16/1 clear winner? [Answer tomorrow]
    • Admit it, you can almost feel the 'But' coming after the set-up. But, it isn't quite that simple, of course, otherwise you could just take a tape measure and a set of scales to the course and become a millionaire. Matters such as biomechanical efficiency, cardiovascular performance come into the equation and the difference made by how much a horse 'wants it' should never be underestimated. But, this isn't a research project and a few simple rules will get you 80%+ of the way there and the science can be left to to the exponential input for lessening returns part of the graph.
    • There will always be exceptions and B2yoR has lost count of the number of times people have started a conversation on the "But winners come in all sizes..", "What about Northern Dancer/Mill Reef [insert your own favourite, smaller, top class runner to taste]...." lines. Well, yes, there are exceptions but you have to assume that they have something unusual (most probably close to perfectly efficient movement as part of their superior athleticism for the top class ones). Winners come in all sizes because we define races which allow all sizes to win because we want competitive racing. If you rope off a lot of rabbits in their own race you'll get small winners but wont have proved or disproved anything.
    • This year's Royal Ascot meeting gave a classic example with the field for one of the top Group sprint races. The field featured a lot of strapping horses and imposing athletes as you would expect. One of the Australian runners - Bentley's Biscuit - was a strapping lad and straight out of central casting (finished last). B2yoR overheard one paddock judge say 'who's that little rat...' as Miss Andretti walked by and while she wasn't quite that bad she was almost certainly the smallest in the whole field and relatively lightly built. She won and as a Paddock Reviewer you just have to accept that life isn't always about easy races like the Windsor one. When a horse like Miss Andretti has demonstrated she can do it you have to believe it and put it down to experience and try to see what she has which makes her that different.
    • What brought all that on? Thinking about the Lowther field is the answer. In a set of mostly smaller types one of the least imposing will be Visit. She demonstrated unsual ability on her debut when finishing second in a good maiden and at a time in the season when the Stoute trained FTOs can be pretty ropey. On the TV pictures of that debut the last furlong run she made was truly eyecatching but it also showed her to be on the small side. She was made favourite for the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes on her next run and was one of the smallest in the review. But, the vibes all said that she had something different and she duly showed it by dispalying that strong finish again. 
    • Lack of size will catch up with her somewhere against a bigger type but as a 2yo filly she's less likely to run into a strapping, masculine 'Peeping Fawn'. On what she's shown with an unpressed win LTO she sets a good standard for the Lowther but is unlikely to be value. Realistically, there are only three others with the Class potential to challenge her. One is clearly You'resothrilling although her penalty makes it difficult for her and she has looked less of a speed type. Fleeting Spirit is the opposite and has good 5f speed and her Molecomb win was boosted by Captain Gerrard yesterday (and it will be fascinating to see how her runner-up Kingsgate Native does in the Nunthorpe against the best older sprinters). She seems likely to set the race up and be the marker for the closers like Visit and You'resothrilling to aim for. 
    • Of those three it is likely to be a good finish between Visit and Fleeting Spirit and if Visit is as good as the vibes suggest then she ought to find a way to to get past the other filly in the final furlong. The fourth filly is likely to be a good each-way alternative to the other three class types. Nahoodh has a bit more size than Visit and is a similar, taller but lightly made type by the first season Clodovil to Cristal Clear. She represents the trainer and owner that have won the race twice in recent seasons and ran much better last time than her third placing suggests. She got held up as the race quickened in what has been shown to be a good-class maiden last time and made very good progress against the others in the last furlong given the shape of the race. If something is going to get amongst the three, proven, Group winners then she is the strongest candidate.
    Back to Top of Page

    © British 2yo Racing. All rights reserved.