British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season Race Preview

British 2yo Racing - 2007 Season

Racing Preview - August 24th

Today's Races

[523] : Bath 5:25, 5.7f Auction (5)

[524] : Bath 5:55, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)

[525] : Newbury 12:50, 7f Maiden (5) Div I

[526] : Newbury 1:20, 6f Nursery (4)

[527] : Newbury 2:20, 7f Maiden (5) Div II

[528] : Newcastle 6:05, 6f Novice (5)

[529] : Newcastle 6:35, 7f Claimer (6)

[530] : Newmarket July 14:10, 7f Maiden Fillies' (4)

[531] : Newmarket July 14:40, 6f DSL Sales Consolation (2)

[532] : Newmarket July 15:15, 8f Nursery (4)

[533] : Newmarket July 15:50, 7f Maiden c&g (4)

[534] : Thirsk 1:30, 6f Maiden (4) Div I

[535] : Thirsk 2:00, 6f Maiden (4) Div II

[536] : Thirsk 2:30, 7f Seller (5)

[537] : Thirsk 3:00, 7f Auction (5)

Checkout
Trainer :	Michael Stoute has a consistent record with 2yos and in a normal year gets around 22 wins from 18-20 winners from a total of around 60 runners. His typical Strike Rate is in the 18-20% range. He doesn't target strong debuts but gets between 6-9 each year with his better types and occasionally in weak races at lesser courses. He is ahead of his 2006 schedule in terms of runners and winners but has typically had only 2 debut winners to date. In a normal season his better 7-8f runners debut from late August onwards and the best will show up by going close to winning FTO. He runs four on debut today with first string Miss Rochester running in the 7f maiden at Newmarket which he won with the useful debut filly Short Skirt in 2005. That filly cost the Cheveley Park Stud €320,000 and he also runs Striving (€300,000) for the same owners as a second string. As a half sister to a Group 1 winner Striving is worth that money to the stud for her longer term breeding career. In the 7f males' race he runs first string Perfect Stride (440,000 guineas purchase for important owner Saeed Suhail) and second string Confidence Trick as a Gainsborough Stud (the deceased Maktoum Al Maktoum's legacy) owner bred. You would tend to think that at least one of this group is at the superior end of the ability scale.
Paddock Review :	Yesterday's answer - the pictures are from the Windsor maiden on Monday (Result). Top left is 15/8 second favourite Divine Power (small, so what and 3rd), top right is the masculine filly and best type Irish Pearl who won at 16/1 dropping down to 6f after fading from 3rd late on debut. Bottom left is the 11/10f Swanky Lady who finished unplaced. Small, slouching around and babyish. A definite 'No, thanks, on the day. Bottom right is Our Piccadilly (2nd at 7/1) and a little more about her and perhaps some people might have picked her as the better one. To extend the Paddock Review thoughts to a different area. When you read the runner summaries, spotlights, etc. before this race you no got something like "eyecatching 6th in a much better Goodwood maiden last week, represents top stable who get good improvement from debut, ought to ...." for Swanky Lady. These are usually written by someone who hasn't been on the racecourse much and is taking an educated guess about the previous form. In the 8f Nursery at Newmarket the previous 'Horse Of The Week' Bailey runs off what would appear a very usable 79 official rating. On debut he showed inexperience but finished well enough over 6f to suggest he could live up to his looks. One niggle about him was that despite his large frame he was a little lightly made and slightly narrow. Horses of this type often need longer distances than their pedigree would suggest. He was also a little leggy and before his second run at Wolverhampton it was a definite possibility that he would look awkward around that tight bend. He performed to that expectation and lost ground on the turn while being 'scrubbed'. Once straight and balanced he finished well enough in the last furlong and looking a 'galloper'. With that background it was a definite surprise that he turned up at Kempton for his third run to have a go around and even tighter bend. In a weakish race he didn't lose so much ground but struggled to get to grips with the pace setting Freudian Slip who had been claimed from a seller. He managed to get to the lead in the final furlong but his lack of pace meant he got picked off by a newcomer late. On the day he looked in peak condition and with a real "let me at 'em" attitude (see picture) and his overall performance a real let down. He now steps up to 8f on a straight course and with a rating which is Ok for his physical type. The field against him is unexciting so as long as he stays let's hope the real Bailey shows through.
Ratings :
Other :	First season sire Where Or When has made very little impact so far with his runners and with the sales season coming up and the with owners of mares starting to think about what sires to use for the 2008 covering season he needs some good news. He has two relatively expensive debut runners today with Summer Winds (65,000 gns for his trainer Terry Mills) in the first Division of the 7f maiden at Newbury and Flight To Quality (€55,000) in the second Division.

August 24th Summary :

An excellent set of races at York over the last three days which have helped clarify the merits of the previous Group races run in 2007 and identified contenders to develop further and compete to be the in the top 10-20 elite runners at season's end. The Acomb Stakes on Tuesday saw a taking effort from Fast Company showing an unusual ability to quicken and on that evidence a certainty to compete well in the Group 1 championship races like the Dewhurst Stakes. The Gimcrack Stakes on Tuesday was run in just an average time but Sir Gerry also showed a strong ability to change pace in the later stage. He also looked capable of competing at the higher level. That race saw Swiss Franc beaten and, in general, the Royal Ascot races didn't fare well against runners making later debuts like Fast Company (14th July) and Sir Gerry (3rd July).
The exception to that was with the 5f form and that is often the case because the shortest races tend to attract the precocious types who debut in earlier season for most trainers. Captain Gerrard upheld the Molecomb Stakes form well in the Listed Roses Stakes over 5f having not run at Royal Ascot while he developed in lower class events. Kingsgate Native, a Royal Ascot runner-up over 5f won the all-aged Nunthorpe at Group 1 level having been second in the Molecomb. The filly who won the Goodwood race - Fleeting Spirit- ran well but found 6f a little beyond her against the best types in the Lowther. That race saw the smaller Visit beaten by the bigger Nahoodh. The winner doesn't really convince as a long term prospect for 3yo races like the 1,000 Guineas although should compete well enough in the late season fillies' championship races like the Cheveley Park if she runs in them (the owner also has Nijoom Dubai to consider in those events).
It is worth considering the win of Kingsgate Native in the Nunthorpe in the context of the 'Weight For Age' (WFA) scale and the amount of development horses make from 2yo to 3yo and then onto older horses. The WFA differences were put in place many years ago and have to a large extent have been successful in bringing the generations together. The one area where they are not fully tested is with 2yos taking on older horses because it is rarely done. Int he Nunthorpe Kingsgate Native received 22lbs from the 3yos he faced and 24lbs from the 4yos+. Which means that an average 2yo in August over 5f will be 22lbs inferior in ability to a similarly average 3yos and both behind the average 4yo+ (the 3yo by 2lbs and the juvenile by 24lbs).
To give some feel for this B2yoR would use a figure around 16lbs at season's end as the amount of improvement an average horse (with scope) would need to make to hold their handicap level as a 3yo. So a 70 estimate at 3yo would mean an 84-88 handicapper at 3yo presuming they had the physical scope to improve which can, of course, be judged in paddock review. If the horse was a precocious and smaller 2yo with no physical scope then they will be in trouble as a 3yo if they have been whizzed up to compete strongly as a 2yo. Say this type of horse go an 85 Nursery mark at 2yo then because they haven't developed they will actually be a 65-70 handicapper by physical set-up at 3yo but will still be rated in the 80s. These are the type of horses that go through their 3yo careers without winning as they run in midfield in handicaps as their Official Rating slowly declines. As a 4yo their rating gets down to something in the 60s and they manage to win a small race.
After the Nunthorpe the TV presenter posed the rhetorical question "If that's what Kingsgate Native can do as a 2yo [a clear win against a solid, if unexciting, field of older sprinters] then what will he do as a 3yo...". Well, it's actually the wrong question and the correct one needs to address how much development he has. If he turns up in the same race next year he needs to have made 22lbs improvement to produce the same result if everything else stays the same (let's pretend it does for argument's sake). Can he make that improvement? Was he 'well in' this year receiving 22lbs give how precocious a 2yo he is?
On pedigree you wouldn't bet that he can make that improvement. He's by the sire Mujadil who did all his winning at 5f as a juvenile and couldn't win at 3yo. His best progeny have been nearly exclusively 2yo Group winners who haven't developed to be able to compete at that level as older horses. Up to the end of 2006 his only British Group winner by a 3yo or older was by Daunting Lady in the Fred Darling Stakes. So she had only managed to eke out her ability until the April of her 3yo career before those with more scope went by her.
He's an unusual physical type being notably lengthy for his height and very heavily built and deep right through his body and hindquarters. It clearly works well together but he is already such a bulky specimen you suspect he is pretty mature already and ahead of the WFA scale.
Which brings us to Friday and a large set of 15 races and a big group of runners. The increase in racing in mid season has various implication including the lessening of quality in some races and some pretty soft events. We've seen a range of runners who were struggling to win in more competitive events able to find opportunities to win with this expansion and a range of early season debuts converting promise at the fourth, or greater attempt. The pressure also makes it harder to assess all the 2yos in the paddock and many organisations make no attempt for many meetings. If you read this site regularly we hope you would realise that a ratings service that doesn't do some physical assessment is guessing in many races (not something you should be paying too much for). It's always amusing to read a comment such as "....beginning to have his limitations exposed..." about a horse on something like his 6th outing when these would have been apparent to the author in the parade ring before his debut if they had bothered to travel there.
The 6f Nursery at Newbury looks a reasonably competitive event, the comparison between the Offical Ratings and the B2yoR estimates follow and the Virtual Paddock shows the horses pictured in their relative rating order. :-

Horse	Official Rating	B2yoR [Est]	Difference	Notes
Captain Royale	84	60	24	Ran in Iriash Group race last time in heavy ground. Has usuable rating in this group.
Harlech Castle	81	48	33	Small and compact. Probably over-rated for early season form and last placed run.
Regal Rhythm	80	52	28	Taller type but rather lightly built and 80 right at his upper.
Sinead Of Aglish	79	52	27	Form hasn't progresses and 79 at top end of her range.
Party In The Park	77	47	30*	Ran in the two early season maidens that B2yoR most over-rated and has disaapointed. Back after a break and an interesting prospect given his physical type off a 77 rating.
Nylla	75	43	32
Chathams Islands	74	43	31	Disappointed on AW before a good win LTO and a little scope.
River Bounty	72	40	32
Fathsta	72	36	36
Flying Applause	68	36	32
Richardthesecond	63	37 (25)	25 (37)
Secret Meaning	63	32 (30-25)	31	Seller winner.
We Have A Dream	61	35	26	Seems to have reasonable rating compared to the seller type runners.
Demure Princess	58	29? (11-0-16)	29	Recent form much below early effort.

The two divisions of the 7f Maiden at Newbury are moderate to average quality on profile. The first is likely to see We're Delighted as favourite and the phrase "finished third to exciting prospect Tajdeef" will no doubt be used regularly. Both divisions of the 'Tajdeef' maiden were run in relatively slow times and try looking at this picture of Tajdeef to see what you think. He's small, very neatly made and the phrase 'ready 2yo type' fits him well. Anyway, We're Delighted didn't get anyway near him so the comparison to Tajdeef is misleading. He would be one to oppose with a solid opponent but the field doesn't contain an abvious one. If Morestead were trained by someone with a record of training 2yo winners you could easily convince yourself to take We're Delighted on with him. He's a pretty good physical specimen for a £20,000 breeze-up buy and was never put into the Ascot race on debut in a typically 'nice intro' manner. But Brendan Powell has never had a 2yo turf winner and has failed to convert a number of promising runs over the years.
Unless Hit The Roof steps forward you then are looking at the newcomers for an alternative and the best of them are likely to be Reel Star and Summer Winds. The first runs for Sylvester Kirk and as noted two days ago his debut runners which are any good and might compete for a win usually come with a single figure SP and a bit of on-course positive vibe. His debut runner at Folkestone yesterday was 40/1 in a weak race which told us it was no good (it finished 4th which probably tells us the race was no good by extension). As noted above Summer Winds runs for Terry Mills and is by his Group 1 winning miler Where Or When. Mr Mills gets very rare debut winners and this one would need to be well above average (say an 88+ Official rater) to win here.
In summary a race which may well require a rating below 50 to win and We're Delighted pretty vulnerable to a solid opponent. He may well be saved by the lack of that type of fully positive profile runner in the rest of the field. Morestead is one to check for development to see if he is ready to break that duck for his trainer.

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