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No 2yo race today before a single fillies' maiden at Warwick tomorrow on
Bank Holiday Monday. This space will be used to consider the 'Brocklesby'
in three areas - general thoughts on the race, looking at the B2yoR result
& [Est] and trying to identify the quality ('Class Level') of the runners.
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GENERAL
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The race was Very ragged, even by March and softer ground standards. Cold
day with strong north-easterly winds and snow flurries.
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Open betting Market which suggested that few, perhaps none, were thought
higher class and trainer's unsure about preparation level. A better class
horse could have featured prominently in this race on base ability without
being well drilled and there didn't look to be one.
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The lack of readiness, nous and fitness suggested that many trainers are
behind schedule with a colder, wetter late winter and spring to contend
with.
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You wonder how many of the 2yos gave actually been on turf before - a lot
were well behind by halfway and fading soon after. Before plain 'fitness'
should have broken them.
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Stands' rail and advantage with group bunching there. The rail seemed a
definite advantage in the last 2f on the day. In the Cammidge Trophy Aahayson
seemed to just keep on rolling on having made the running down that strip.
Don't Panic looked something very good pulling way on that rail late in
his race and the Lincoln winner put the seal on his success in the final
furlong there..
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The Brocklesby winner seemed to outstay the 2nd in the final furlong with
the rail advantage having been headed after halfway. The two who raced
far side never got organised and were disadvantaged by the lack of a racing
group. Runners that tacked across from low draws to race centre field on
the outside of the group probably at some disadvantage.
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RESULT
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It would be advisable to open a sample of the - Result
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The results pages have some minor changes for 2008 and there may be some
minor alterations to the format during the season. The [Est] column
is the B2yoR rating for the race. All debut runs will be colour coded Red-Amber-Green
(RAG) as an indicator of how the ratings compare to an 'average' debut
run for the trainer. The details of the calculations are still developing
and need not detain us here. A rough guide of Green = up to standard for
a later winner or good placer; Red = the debut performance of a typical
season unplaced horse or accidental placer; Amber = intermediate between
Red & Green, darker coloured cells indicate the trainer had no winner
in 2007 to be able to assign a definite 'Green' coding to.
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The [Prf] column is the pre-event rating of what the 2yo ought to
be able to achieve in the race given the trainer, pedigree, previous form
(when there is some), etc.
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Looking at the result page it highlights quickly how the majority of the
field underperformed, some by a very long margin. Only the first four beat
their profile levels and the 3rd and 4th assisted by basement expectations.
The long tail of red cells is a visual indicator of how the race broke
up with many runners never really getting started.
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The 'Run Style' column indicates where each horse was at halfway (after
2.5f in this 5f race for example). The '1' prefix refers to the group of
17 that congregated towards the stands' rail. The '2' prefix indicates
the pair that went far side. The number after the letters (F = Front Run;
T = Track; M = Midfield; B = Behind) are the horses position in their group
at that halfway point. The front runner should be '1' etc.
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Looking at the Brocklesby five of the first 6 home were in the first 6
places on the stands' side at halfway and had double figure draws. They
rolled home up that strip like the older horses and, with one exception,
nothing made worthwhile ground on them. The weak profiled Igoyougo from
a trainer who occasionally gets runners to show up well on early season
debuts fell apart to fade from 3rd just before the furlong pole.
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The 6th home was Northern Tour and the one horse to make a notable move
during the race after switching to centre field after halfway. Just behind
him was David Evans Calypso Girl who showed up most prominently at halfway
of those that tacked over from low draws. She had the fitness you would
expect from a trainer runner to see out the race well enough. After the
fading Igoyougo we had the small & ready Saxford running for another
reliable trainer. He ran centre to far side then went to the far rail before
drifting back later in the race. A bad 'trip' in that sense and would have
needed to be an OR75+ type to get amongst those who had the better stands'
run.
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After Saxford we are into the bumblers, the stupid and the deadbeats by
10th place. Looking at the 'Run Notes' remember that 'B-2' would mean two
lengths lost at the break, 'B-3' three lengths and so on. 'P-1' means a
length lost in the pick-up, getting into stride after exiting the stalls.
'Inx' means showed inexperience and 'Dv' means driven along to go faster
perhaps through lack of nous, willing or whatever. How much of that lot
is there? A number of runners were coping so poorly they were eased or
allowed to fade without the jockey pressing them. Which means that some
late progress like that of Nchike through to 10th from a clueless beginning
needs to be set in the context of whether he was going past trees.
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A good exercise would be to think about where the capital 'Ws' will be
in the 'Wnr' column by mid-season and at the close which would indicate
a horse that had managed to win something.. How solid do you think that
3rd-7th group are? Where are the improvers and lurkers in the ruck?
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The winner's rating at 30 and the runner-up at 36 are low for maidens and
wouldn't be up to winning one later in the season. A general lesson from
the B2yoR estimates reworking over last winter was how weak early season
form can be and how easy to over-rate. In general taking a downside view
will lead you into a lot less trouble.
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RUNNERS
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Sally's Dilemma - trainer's runners in better condition
early in 2008 if she is a good indicator. Had the best of the conditions
and looked a typical ready type lacking scope to develop beyond early season.
Probably an OR70s rater and not better class. Trainer will probably try
to win the fillies' Thirsk Novice in April and the early May Salisbury
Conditions race with her. Solid chance in first of those but will come
up short if Hannon has something for Salisbury. Note she was bought by
trainer Mick Easterby at the sales who had promised Turner he would have
a horse with him. They do cattle business together apparently. In the paper
she was noted as owned by E Brook (an Easterby owner?) but ran in Mick's
own colours.
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Doncaster Rover - S Parr has recently taken over
from Danny Murphy as salaried trainer at owner Willie Mackay's yard so
the early preparation of the horse would be down to the previous trainer.
Presumably wants to make a good impression though and this one travelled
best in the race and led after halfway until stalling a little in the final
furlong. By a non- 5f & non-precocious sire and looked the certain
later winner in the group. Probably an OR75-82 rater and has some claims
to improve with greater distance. One for paddock review to identify.
The trainer had a runner in the 10f 3yo maiden and Internationaldebut was
clear 2f out before crumpling in the last furlong to finish 3rd. Another
indicator the trainer has his horses relatively well forward. Worth recording
that the 'surprise' 33/1 winner of that 3yo event was trained by our friend
David Evans. Perhaps early season 3yo maidens follow the same logic of
low quality performances to win, fitness can trump ability and the Market
still doesn't think much of Evans despite the evidence.
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Knavesmire - some positives in pedigree and not a complete
basement price at the sales but looked a smaller limited type. Trainer
had the 6th in last year's race who didn't progress and didn't win and
this one probably a similar level. Trainer has got very early season winners
if you go back far enough and presume this one was mostly ready for debut.
Probably an OR58-64 type and need to win something lower quality early.
Not a 'convert Brocklesby third to win STO' type and one to oppose against
any reasonable opposition.
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Lagan Handout - trainer hasn't had a 2yo winner for
some time and debuts usually moderate. Often struggles to turn promise
to wins. Sire can get the odd natural winner and showed enough to win at
BR30-35 early. However, like Knavesmire not one to follow as such and one
to oppose in 2-3 weeks in a field with Hannon, Channon, Callaghan runners
etc.
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Riflessione - typical debut for a develop-with-racing
OR60s rater for Stan Moore. Looked like a slightly heavier version of his
mother who ran for trainer & owner who managed to get to OR80+ at 2yo
(ludicrously) before getting back to her real 55-68 level. Minor winner
probably and may need time & runs to get the win.
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Northern Tour - The one horse in the race outside
the first two to show some real promise. Utterly clueless after getting
out of the stalls and 15th in the main group at halfway and well back.
The only horse to make some real ground against the field when switched
to centre track and moving up to 7th .Stuck on well after this move to
pick off the odd fader to a distant 5th. Has a non-5f pedigree and the
trainer said before the race "..he will get the trip which a few of the
faster ones wont..". One of his better siblings - Swing Wing - was a borderline
Listed race type over 8f at 2yo but Mr Cole had him out running over 6f
in May and he couldn't beat lesser horses at Southwell. So, he presents
a dilemma in that he showed enough to believe he can win something but
he may be made to look a bit slow in a 'real' 5f race.
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Calypso Girl - hard to weigh up without knowing how
big she is and how fit on the day. Ran a solid race given the low draw
and centre track run but didn't really get involved and left behind in
later race. Looked smaller than the winner on TV pictures. If she had,
say, 'Danjet' ability she should have been able to get to 3rd-4th even
with the trip negatives. On the 'suspect' list.
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Assuming that Igoyougo and Saxford are smaller and limited types we are
then looking at the clump bad performances from 10th backwards to see if
there are any future winners. 2yo horses do come back from 'shockers' on
debut, but not as many as you might think and the debut run is generally
a good indicator of what you have. A number of the better runners on profile,
from solid trainers, ran quite glorious, Z Grade clunkers. In general if
there are any winners hidden in that bunch they will come from those that
had better profiles on the day. Step forward, from a long way back, the
following :-
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Olympic Dream - When Mister Hardy won the Newcastle
Brocklesby for Richard Fahey in 2007 it was against the normal trend for
the trainer whose earliest 5f debuts are uncompetitive. The suspicion was
that Mister Hardy was a complete natural who got the job done anyway and
didn't progress after mid season in line with his physical precocity early
in the season. Mr Fahey didn't have a batch of early 2yos and didn't have
another runner until May 9th. The next 2yo winner was Rose Siog's well
supported debut success on May 21st and right at the start of his typical
FTO win period. He was quoted before the race that Olympic Dream was "..a
different type to Mister Hardy, has a bit more [physical] scope." Which
had the alarm going off and he drifted to 8/1 on-course having been at
11/4 in the morning. Looked a little inexperienced and didn't show the
pace or nous to keep up to halfway and no response afterwards. A bad debut
and on the trainer's past performances a negative sign and likely to need
time to develop.
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Shadow Bay - Had everything in his favour in terms of
draw and track position and got away well enough but steadily faded from
halfway. If he is running this early for Channon he will win but on the
ability shown he's more an OR65-72 rater. Presume he'll switch to AW or
wait for better ground.
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Mr Malodorous, err, Melodious - talk about stinking
the joint up. Ended up as favourite but ran appallingly. Hopelessly inexperienced
and whipped around halfway to try to get some response. The trainer's runner
in the Cammidge Trophy - Prime Defender - looked less wound up than the
average in the race and perhaps the trainer is behind his schedule. Probably
similar to Shadow Bay in ability and couldn't get into the race just on
ability. One you just have to trust Barry Hills with to take it away and
produce it ready to run to form next time. In the last 5 seasons Mr Hills
is 2 from 2 with season winners who debuted in March and 17 winners from
20 that started their 2yo careers in April. The three exceptions include
two that made debuts as second strings and one that ran well in a Group
race but didn't win during the season.
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Of the others the sales review suggested Diamond Blade
would be a minor winner and despite finishing last should be up to
that level. But his trainer's record with 2yos is on the wane so not one
to follow in the sort term and more one not-to-forget-about in some very
thin Northern 5f maiden later in the season.
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Richo runs for a new trainer in DH Brown who seems to have the R.
Hull owned horses (Moorhouse Lad?) and runs a relatively expensive one
for him at Warwick tomorrow. Attracted some minor each-way support so a
trainer to track to see what his MO is.
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SUM UP
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A disappointing race to some extent with most of the Southern trained horses
failing to perform to potential. Thinking back to the outline for the race
the readiest and most professional horse, from a trainer who is probably
ahead of recent schedule, won from well prepared Northern 'surprise'. Poor
profile types were in 3rd-4th plus the fading 8th and a worry and not ones
to follow. The limited but well prepared types finished in midfield around
the one horse to show some different promise in Northern Tour. The back
of the field probably has some winners mixed in because of the unusually
high incidence of gross incompetence on show. Without paddock review the
pre-race profile and reliable trainers are the best guide to which they
might be because there was no 'promise' on display.
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