No 2yo race today and only one before next Monday. That will be at Kempton
on Saturday with a Class 4 event. which was won by Richard Hannon with
the useful Fat Boy in 2007 from a lower quality field. This year's entries
show none from Hannon although some interesting trainers are in the list
with Jamie Osborne, R. Beckett & Rod Millman from the established set
and Tom Dascombe & Simon Callaghan from the 'newer' group.
The Preview for that race will be published on Friday and before that the
article on the B2yoR Estimates will be produced. The target is for this
to be available from Wednesday afternoon. The article is the final part
of the new season background information.
With the admin out of the way let us turn for a brief consideration of
the fillies' maiden at Warwick yesterday. The overall quality of that race
was low and spending a lot of time considering individual runners likely
to be low in payback terms. It wouldn't be any surprise to see the later
winners from the race amount to a minor auction race success and a seller
Another cold day with snow showers and a stiff breeze. The going was officially
good-to-soft but the time for the race was very slow. Kylayne won the same
race in 2007 on good-to-firm, and keeping to the far rail, in 59.36 seconds
and this one went in 64.72s. The runner-up in the Kylayne race - Sinead
Of Aglish - won later that year at Warwick in 61.74s on official Soft (Heavy
places) and the small & limited Tamrai Dancer did 63.67s carrying less
weight a week later on the same official going.
The 5.5f race handicap on the Warwick card was also in a slow time and
the going report suspect. Even so, it is worth bearing mind how weak early
season form can be and the slow time suggests this was a poor race. Keep
that in mind when you think that it was 4.5 lengths back from the winner
to the second so the placed horses and worse were running times a second
and more slower.
The race bore a number of similarities to the way the Brocklesby shaped
up. The first two home were in the first three at halfway and the third
horse in the shake-up at the point was a very cheap one (but presumably
wound up) running for PT Midgley - as it was at Doncaster. The Midgley
runner faded badly late in the race again. Behind that was a midfield of
runners who kept up for a while before fading to various degrees and a
largish group of stragglers who never got going. The odd runner made progress
late but, even more than with the Brocklesby, there is a large caveat about
what that progress amounted to in demonstrated ability.
With the lack of a better quality runners from a major yard the win went
to a 'ready & fit early yard' who has a large enough range of 2yos
to have the odd usable cheap one. Things happen for a reason and the same,
quite small, range of 'Race Stories' emerge each year. Which is why the
FTO P&L tracking has got off to a solid start.
Think about it this way - in recent seasons David Evans has had the runner-up
in the first 2yo race of the season (when at Lingfield) on two occasions.
On the first of those it was with a small, limited, one at 25/1 who only
just got held by a filly who cost 36,000gns who later finished fourth in
the Queen Mary. On the other it was at 11/2 with a better OR75-83 filly
(Danjet) who got a too confident waiting ride from Spencer behind a colt
who got an OR above 90 later in the season. Either of those fillies would
have won this race on debut at various odds because an average, or better
filly, wasn't in the field. Danjet actually did win the equivalent race
on her second go, by 5 lengths and one of the best value 5/4 shots of the
whole season against garbage.
With this field looking limited the 8/1 for She's A Shaw Thing would look
wrong with that background even if you knew little about the horses but
just knew what the basic 'Race Stories' were. Without the support for Percolator
she might have been shorter. But, on the other hand, with a couple of more
expensive fillies in the field from bigger stables she might have been
20/1. With what we have seen in terms of general preparedness from the
representatives from the larger stables so far you would think that She's
A Shaw Thing would have won at 20/1 in those circumstances unless there
was a real 90+ type there. If you can assess the field before the race
the result makes sense. The pre race profile is an outline of what to expect.
It would be advisable to open a sample of the - Result
- in a new browser window to refer to with the following notes.
The winner has been given a rating of 27 and roughly to her pre-race [Profile]
which is seller level and the rest of the faders have poor returns. Only
the winner matched up to the type of debut expected for a season winner
from the yard and reiterating the point about not looking for 'eyecatchers'
here. It is worth noting that the season has got off to a stuttering start
both in terms of number of races and in the readiness of the average runner
to cope with tough conditions.
The race splits into two groups with the first 8 at halfway filling the
first 7 places home. The exception was the typical Midgley fader. The bumblers
and no-shows who were 9th and worse at halfway mixed themselves up a little
but none made progress. Of the first six through halfway only the winner
didn't fade to some extent and the others found the going too tough late
and made the winner's plugging on look better as they fell away. The two,
physically different types, in 7-8th at halfway and far enough off the
pace to not have it 'break' them made progress into the faders.
She's A Shaw Thing - a very illuminating immediate
post-race interview with her trainer. He said "Was going to have a good
bet on her but I wasn't sure she would handle the ground or the draw but
they came stands' side so she was in the right place". "I took four
[2yos] to Wolverhampton [Polytrack] last week and she finished last of
them. I think Tom [Mcloughlin who rode here] went to sleep a bit".
"She's not big enough to be a 3yo so we will keep cracking away with
her at 2yo".
The last of the lines in response to a question about whether she would
be kept going like Danjet. That probe also asked whether he would be as
ambitious with her as Danjet (who only ran in Conditions, Listed &
Groups races afterwards at 2yo and not in handicaps). Mr Evans looked a
little surprised by that question and suggesting he didn't think this one
was up to Danjet standard. However, although quite sharp, Mr Evans' normal
wide eyed expression can make him look perpetually surprised.
A, small and ready natural who isn't going to improve much and perhaps
an OR72-74 type. Trainer often gets second win with this sort through persistence.
Percolater - the Market did know something in this
case and supported in to favourite. Mentally ready to race and lead through
halfway and probably travelled just best. Worn down by the winner in a
duel in the straight and faded notably in the last furlong. Better than
her final result but a limited type and perhaps an OR63-67 type. Trainer's
runners can tail off in form terms from debut and you'd like to see her
out quickly to convert her promise to a minor winner with some extra fitness
Meg Jicaro - With a small yard who have had no 2yo
success. Interesting that she was ridden by apprentice T Dean despite Bill
Turner having two in the race (he had ridden his Brocklesby winner two
days prior). In a notably small set of fillies a little bigger than the
average but probably not a 5f type. Some very minor promise but looked
to lack 5f pace and plugged into 3rd through faders. Unlikely to win, and
not early, and perhaps one to revisit later in the season.
Transcentral - on TV pictures an interesting tiny
terrier. Looked very small but at least with a bit of a barrel to her and
some strength. Compact which will limit her distance range. Cheap purchase
for a trainer who makes a habit of getting wins of some sort with them.
A bit of a head-down puller and not the easiest to steer but still pulling
after the line having done a bit more than plod on from 8th to 4th in the
last furlong. Only runner in the field to show something a little 'different'
in the race. Presumably limited and probably a 50s rater but a usable one
on first view and the trainer can perhaps find a seller for her third go.
Be prepared to be a little shocked how tiny she actually is when seen in
The Bill Turner pair where both unfancied and were competent enough to
keep up but faded and are presumably seller types and probably not terribly
competitive ones. They'll be running around with half a sheep's fleece
tied to their heads in bottom class quite soon.
Mick Channon's Brocklesby runner looked well underdone and Tarawa Atoll
ran an even worse race here. If only those two had run you would say he
needs a couple of weeks to brings his 2yos forward or hasn't shown us a
usable one. However, Shadow Bay ought to be usable.
Alphabeth - ran ok in the context of the race. 4th through
halfway and 3rd at the furlong post before a bad fade. Minor promise in
a weak race and perhaps drop to sellers quite quickly to try to get a win.
Trainer is usually ruthless is getting rid of expendable ones.