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The first race on the all-weather after two on soft
turf which have exposed the lack of readiness, and probably ability to
a solid extent, of the juveniles to run so far. This is a Class 4 event
which, in theory should mean that it attracts the better runners. However,
this early in the year and with the lack of races the field is what you
would expect rather an obviously superior one. Last year's race
was won comfortably by Fat Boy for Richard Hannon who, unusually, has not
representative which would strongly suggest he isn't quite ready. The field
behind Fat Boy included four other later winners, all at Claimer or Seller
level at some point, to back up the point about 'Class 4' not equalling
better quality.
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This year's race lacks the Hannon likely superior
one but has a stronger profile overall. The lack of any previous all-weather
races at Lingfield so far means this field looks like a mix of the first
race of 2007 (won by a Jamie Osborne runner from an Ralph Beckett one)
and the Fat Boy affair. Both of those trainers have their first runner
here and both should be competitive 2yos on profile. Bill Turner made a
good start with his first runner for Mick Easterby in the Brocklesby and
runs the 'other one' here having not declared it for the Doncaster race.
Behind those three are an interesting set who ought to include some later
winners above claiming level to give this race a bit more depth than in
2007.
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The [Profile] table for the race is presented in descending
rating-for-the-day order which, B2yoR suspects, is what people will prefer
to racecard order. Some specific notes on the runners follow.
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Asaint Needs Brass -
was seen at the sales and scored well as a mature, well built, yearling
with a bit more size than the average 'early' one and some scope to develop.
By a US sire who won over 6f out of a European mare whose first two, US
bred, foals have race in Britain. One, won on debut but only by picking
up the pieces after an all-out pace war around Wolverhampton's polytrack.
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The trainer has a growing reputation and a very good
recent record overall. He has been included in the 'FTO P&L' tracking
to follow all his debut runners because of his well above average results.
Earliest runners will include the odd rabbit trying to sneak a win and
the very earliest runners can be a little below his best debut readiness.
He had a solid 2yo placed second in the first 2yo race of 2007 with Concertmaster
(or 79 at season close) and this one looks to have at least as good a profile.
A very strong contender for the day and ought to be one to follow even
if beaten.
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Sub Prime - By a good sire who has
got just one winner before the middle of May in recent seasons although
that was in early April on the AW. Dam unproven of no visible quality.
Trainer has targeted 2yo racing in recent years and made a plan in 2007
to have 10 wins by Royal Ascot. To fulfil this plan he tasked his agents
with buying precocious types. The first 8 runners by mid-May were all winners
in the season with two debut wins. One by a complete natural in the first
race of the year and an accident with another 'useful' one at 12/1.
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This one retained at the sales and apparently owned
by the trainer. This raises the possibility of a lesser type trying to
get an early win rather than one of his targeted precocious runners. A
below average FTO win percent trainer overall and this one would need to
be the absolute natural and leaning towards the useful end to win. On balance
a likely winner in the season but more a place prospect.
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His winner of the first race in 2007 was well supported
and on that day the Market was 'ready for her'. In general the trainer's
likely winners in the season are are indicated by the SP to some extent.
In 2007 he had 14 individual winners out of 40 runners. The 15 shortest
SPs for his 2yos out of the 40 total included 12 of the winners. However,
they were mostly in the 4/1 to 9/1 range and not this-one-will-win type
messages. Only one of that 12 actually won on debut. The Market often indicates
which ones he knows has got what it takes to win something. The lack of
FTO priming means they aren't expecting to win FTO in most cases.
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Gone Hunting - In general terms
a 'Cheap' buy at 8,000gns but a solid price for a lower quality pedigree
and unfashionable sire and also quite high by Mick Easterby's standards
for whom Bill Turner trains him. Dam won over 5f STO in mid May getting
and official rating in the low 70s. Has produced similar quality with her
foals. A usable 5f, early, pedigree if lacking in development class.
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Trainer typically runs all his early 2yos in the first
2-3 weeks of the season and gets FTO winners because of their nous and
fitness. Won the Brocklesby last week with a filly for this owner and Gone
Hunting was also entered. Likely to lack the class of at least a couple
in the field and the trainer likes to win claimers & sellers at heart.
But, likely to be ready to run to a high level within his ability and capable
of benefiting if the better types aren't ready to perform.
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Old Father Zieten - seen
at the sales and part of the sum up read "..small, neat, ready, early type.
Lacking scope. Rod Millman in looking [who won this race with a similar
set up in Beckenham's Secret in 2005]". Given those comments it got something
right because here he is in the third race of the year. Probably an OR60s
rater.
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Trainer has made a very goo impression in his first
two year's with limited numbers. FTO winners in early season haven't figured
though. He had a go at it in his first season in 2006 with a couple of
poor ones who didn't go well. Last year he didn't bother and had his first
runner in June. This one a better type to some extent than those 2006 reps
so might compete a bit more strongly but a 4th-6th range showing promise
for a minor win perhaps more likely.
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Comanche Trail - absolutely
fascinating. A real "What's this one doing here?" entrant. Not sold for
a highish £47,000 at the 2yo breeze-up sales at Kempton three
weeks ago. By a first season sire with a stayer's pedigree who you wouldn't
expect to have many mid-season runners, let alone March - although the
breeze-up sale preparation will have had some effect. Ok, so the dam's
side is all-speed then? Well, no....she was unraced but by a very non-precocious
sire although has managed to produce a 6f winner to a miler.
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The trainer hasn't had a runner before mid-May in
recent years. His earlier debuts when he does start include the later winners
with 5 winners from 16 who made May to early-July debuts since 2003 and
just 1 from 14 with the post August ones. He doesn't get debut winners
though and the debuts are normally uncompetitive. The one debut winner
he has got was at 33/1 with a horse who was well back 5th of 7 having it's
ears scrubbed off at halfway before wandering past the exhausted pacemakers
late on. The Listed quality Tabaret has been his only other strong competer
who demonstrated his innate ability by closing late from a bungled first
part of the race.
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An interesting contender because there is no obvious
pedigree or trainer reason for him to be here. One to check for signs of
ability.
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Grand Honour - unusually early
runner for a reliable trainer who gets the wins he should do with the limited
number of runners he has. Shouldn't be ready to compete FTO but the early
debut might indicate a usable one.
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Imperial Skylight - trainer
ran two in the same race last year including this one's half brother. That
one won a claimer next time and was allowed to leave the stables. The previous
foal has a few more runs for Channon and the owner-breeder before being
claimed. By a first season sire who Channon trained and stands at his Norman
Court stud. No reason on pedigree to expect other than another claimer
type being got out early to try to get some sort of win for 'his' sire.
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Trainer doesn't wind 2yos up for debut and the three
to run so far have confirmed that nothing has changed. Ought to be a midfield
debut in a race which wouldn't be weak enough for one of his better early
debuts to sneak a win in.
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The other three runners come out low on profile and
run for trainers who do not get strong debuts for the most part. Multi
Tasker was declared for the Brocklesby but a non-runner because of the
soft ground.
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The filly Dr Wintringham has
a seller quality profile at best and the trainer ran one of that type to
finish third in the same race last year. His runners this season have not
been ready to compete and he only gets very occasional FTO wins in early
season with naturals of at least average maiden winning ability (which
she isn't on profile bu some margin).
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Buckle Up was bred by the trainer
and has managed a minor 5f 2yo win with a sibling. He is very much a develop
with racing trainer so he shouldn't be competitive and more one to assess
for being better than the other foals.
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IN SUMMARY :-
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A return match between Osborne & Beckett at the
top of the profile with the sales report and general higher level of FTO
readiness tipping the balance for Asaint Needs Brass. Sub Prime would probably
need to be the real natural to win and the Market should indicate that
at something like 5/2 or less, with the right vibes, if he is. Gone Hunting
is another test of how ready the Turner 2yos are and if he got out into
a lead with the others showing some inexperience he would be hard to peg
back.
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Some interest amongst the others for future prospects
and, in particular, to find out the point of the Comanche Trail appearance
(are they still trying to sell him....).
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