British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - March 29th 
Races :-
  • 3 : Kempton AW 4:15, 5f Maiden (4)

  •   March 29th Summary : 
    • The first race on the all-weather after two on soft turf which have exposed the lack of readiness, and probably ability to a solid extent, of the juveniles to run so far. This is a Class 4 event which, in theory should mean that it attracts the better runners. However, this early in the year and with the lack of races the field is what you would expect rather an obviously superior one. Last year's race was won comfortably by Fat Boy for Richard Hannon who, unusually, has not representative which would strongly suggest he isn't quite ready. The field behind Fat Boy included four other later winners, all at Claimer or Seller level at some point, to back up the point about 'Class 4' not equalling better quality.
    • This year's race lacks the Hannon likely superior one but has a stronger profile overall. The lack of any previous all-weather races at Lingfield so far means this field looks like a mix of the first race of 2007 (won by a Jamie Osborne runner from an Ralph Beckett one) and the Fat Boy affair. Both of those trainers have their first runner here and both should be competitive 2yos on profile. Bill Turner made a good start with his first runner for Mick Easterby in the Brocklesby and runs the 'other one' here having not declared it for the Doncaster race. Behind those three are an interesting set who ought to include some later winners above claiming level to give this race a bit more depth than in 2007. 
    • The [Profile] table for the race is presented in descending rating-for-the-day order which, B2yoR suspects, is what people will prefer to racecard order. Some specific notes on the runners follow.
    • Asaint Needs Brass - was seen at the sales and scored well as a mature, well built, yearling with a bit more size than the average 'early' one and some scope to develop. By a US sire who won over 6f out of a European mare whose first two, US bred, foals have race in Britain. One, won on debut but only by picking up the pieces after an all-out pace war around Wolverhampton's polytrack. 
    • The trainer has a growing reputation and a very good recent record overall. He has been included in the 'FTO P&L' tracking to follow all his debut runners because of his well above average results. Earliest runners will include the odd rabbit trying to sneak a win and the very earliest runners can be a little below his best debut readiness. He had a solid 2yo placed second in the first 2yo race of 2007 with Concertmaster (or 79 at season close) and this one looks to have at least as good a profile. A very strong contender for the day and ought to be one to follow even if beaten.
    • Sub Prime - By a good sire who has got just one winner before the middle of May in recent seasons although that was in early April on the AW. Dam unproven of no visible quality. Trainer has targeted 2yo racing in recent years and made a plan in 2007 to have 10 wins by Royal Ascot. To fulfil this plan he tasked his agents with buying precocious types. The first 8 runners by mid-May were all winners in the season with two debut wins. One by a complete natural in the first race of the year and an accident with another 'useful' one at 12/1.
    • This one retained at the sales and apparently owned by the trainer. This raises the possibility of a lesser type trying to get an early win rather than one of his targeted precocious runners. A below average FTO win percent trainer overall and this one would need to be the absolute natural and leaning towards the useful end to win. On balance a likely winner in the season but more a place prospect. 
    • His winner of the first race in 2007 was well supported and on that day the Market was 'ready for her'. In general the trainer's likely winners in the season are are indicated by the SP to some extent. In 2007 he had 14 individual winners out of 40 runners. The 15 shortest SPs for his 2yos out of the 40 total included 12 of the winners. However, they were mostly in the 4/1 to 9/1 range and not this-one-will-win type messages. Only one of that 12 actually won on debut. The Market often indicates which ones he knows has got what it takes to win something. The lack of FTO priming means they aren't expecting to win FTO in most cases.
    • Gone Hunting - In general terms a 'Cheap' buy at 8,000gns but a solid price for a lower quality pedigree and unfashionable sire and also quite high by Mick Easterby's standards for whom Bill Turner trains him. Dam won over 5f STO in mid May getting and official rating in the low 70s. Has produced similar quality with her foals. A usable 5f, early, pedigree if lacking in development class.
    • Trainer typically runs all his early 2yos in the first 2-3 weeks of the season and gets FTO winners because of their nous and fitness. Won the Brocklesby last week with a filly for this owner and Gone Hunting was also entered. Likely to lack the class of at least a couple in the field and the trainer likes to win claimers & sellers at heart. But, likely to be ready to run to a high level within his ability and capable of benefiting if the better types aren't ready to perform.
    • Old Father Zieten - seen at the sales and part of the sum up read "..small, neat, ready, early type. Lacking scope. Rod Millman in looking [who won this race with a similar set up in Beckenham's Secret in 2005]". Given those comments it got something right because here he is in the third race of the year. Probably an OR60s rater.
    • Trainer has made a very goo impression in his first two year's with limited numbers. FTO winners in early season haven't figured though. He had a go at it in his first season in 2006 with a couple of poor ones who didn't go well. Last year he didn't bother and had his first runner in June. This one a better type to some extent than those 2006 reps so might compete a bit more strongly but a 4th-6th range showing promise for a minor win perhaps more likely.
    • Comanche Trail - absolutely fascinating. A real "What's this one doing here?" entrant. Not sold for a highish £47,000 at the 2yo breeze-up sales at Kempton three weeks ago. By a first season sire with a stayer's pedigree who you wouldn't expect to have many mid-season runners, let alone March - although the breeze-up sale preparation will have had some effect. Ok, so the dam's side is all-speed then? Well, no....she was unraced but by a very non-precocious sire although has managed to produce a 6f winner to a miler.
    • The trainer hasn't had a runner before mid-May in recent years. His earlier debuts when he does start include the later winners with 5 winners from 16 who made May to early-July debuts since 2003 and just 1 from 14 with the post August ones. He doesn't get debut winners though and the debuts are normally uncompetitive. The one debut winner he has got was at 33/1 with a horse who was well back 5th of 7 having it's ears scrubbed off at halfway before wandering past the exhausted pacemakers late on. The Listed quality Tabaret has been his only other strong competer who demonstrated his innate ability by closing late from a bungled first part of the race.
    • An interesting contender because there is no obvious pedigree or trainer reason for him to be here. One to check for signs of ability.
    • Grand Honour - unusually early runner for a reliable trainer who gets the wins he should do with the limited number of runners he has. Shouldn't be ready to compete FTO but the early debut might indicate a usable one. 
    • Imperial Skylight - trainer ran two in the same race last year including this one's half brother. That one won a claimer next time and was allowed to leave the stables. The previous foal has a few more runs for Channon and the owner-breeder before being claimed. By a first season sire who Channon trained and stands at his Norman Court stud. No reason on pedigree to expect other than another claimer type being got out early to try to get some sort of win for 'his' sire.
    • Trainer doesn't wind 2yos up for debut and the three to run so far have confirmed that nothing has changed. Ought to be a midfield debut in a race which wouldn't be weak enough for one of his better early debuts to sneak a win in.
    • The other three runners come out low on profile and run for trainers who do not get strong debuts for the most part. Multi Tasker was declared for the Brocklesby but a non-runner because of the soft ground. 
    • The filly Dr Wintringham has a seller quality profile at best and the trainer ran one of that type to finish third in the same race last year. His runners this season have not been ready to compete and he only gets very occasional FTO wins in early season with naturals of at least average maiden winning ability (which she isn't on profile bu some margin).
    • Buckle Up was bred by the trainer and has managed a minor 5f 2yo win with a sibling. He is very much a develop with racing trainer so he shouldn't be competitive and more one to assess for being better than the other foals.
    • IN SUMMARY :-
    • A return match between Osborne & Beckett at the top of the profile with the sales report and general higher level of FTO readiness tipping the balance for Asaint Needs Brass. Sub Prime would probably need to be the real natural to win and the Market should indicate that at something like 5/2 or less, with the right vibes, if he is. Gone Hunting is another test of how ready the Turner 2yos are and if he got out into a lead with the others showing some inexperience he would be hard to peg back.
    • Some interest amongst the others for future prospects and, in particular, to find out the point of the Comanche Trail appearance (are they still trying to sell him....).

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    [None Today]
    • Asaint Needs Brass (RM Beckett - ALL)
    • Gone Hunting (WGM Turner - LONG SHOT)

    ~ KTNA 4:15 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 ASAINT NEEDS BRASS [44] - 1
    9 SUB PRIME [40] - 1
    4 GONE HUNTING [39] - 1
    8 OLD FATHER ZIETEN [30] - 1
    3 COMANCHE TRAIL [28] - 1
    5 GRAND HONOUR [26] - 1
    6 IMPERIAL SKYLIGHT [24] - 1
    2 BUCKLE UP [21] - 1
    7 MULTI TASKER [14] - 1
    10 DR WINTRINGHAM [10] +5 1

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