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A typical, smaller field, fillies' Auction race at Lingfield and the 6
runner field perhaps an indication that the lack of juvenile races
to date hasn't been a bad thing. This is an 'Auction' race of the type
where the fillies carry different weights dependent upon how much they
fetched at public auction. The Class 6 level means that it is a lower quality
race and the most expensive filly running cost $30,000. [Aside - thinking
back to field sizes at Lingfield, when Peter Grayson was providing 7 of
9 runners in 5f maidens over the winter has argument was that there weren't
enough races of that type. Err, but Peter, if you took your runners out
of the race Lingfield would have had a 2 runner event which doesn't suggest
there was a huge, unfilled, demand for 5f maidens. Or is this a 'Cheese
Shop' problem and the 'call for it' is being masked by there being nothing
'in stock'...]
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Anyway, if we think back to the 5f maiden that Percolater, Joli
Haven & Lois Darlin ran in at Warwick last week that was
a Class 5 race and in theory a better quality one than this. But 14 of
the 15 runners there cost 5,000 guineas or less or were from humble owner
bred backgrounds and would have been off the bottom two weight bands in
this race. There isn't any 'Class Drop' in going from that Class 5 to this
6. In that limited field Percolater was the one that seemed most fancied
and got back to favourite. She ran well and was very professional in disputing
the lead at halfway. She got tired in the last furlong and ran better than
her fade suggested. At halfway she travelled most comfortably at the pace
in the group. But, that was a slow pace on sticky ground against other
limited fillies.
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Joli Haven couldn't go her pace and faded as badly late in the race. There
was nothing to suggest she wasn't a limited runner and her trainer has
perhaps already run his better types with Sally's Dillemma & Gone Hunting.
Lois Darlin looked very forward in condition terms at Warwick and went
off second favourite. She lost ground at the start and didn't look mentally
ready to race. She should compete better here and should probably beat
Joli Haven. There isn't any reason to expect her to improve past Percolator
though.
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Which means that Percolator, with a '2' against her name and representing
a major trainer is likely to be a shorter price favourite unless there
is something in the newcomers to worry her. Dedante cost 11,500
guineas (compared to Percolator at 2,000 guineas) which means she could
well be a better physical type. But her trainer doesn't go for strong debuts
and she has to give that experienced opponent 2lbs. Dean Ivory's first
runner of the season was Buckle Up who ran at Kempton on Saturday. He was
the fittest in that field and most forward in condition which suggested
he might run better than his 20/1 outsider-of-the-group status. But he
knew nothing much about racing and going around the bend was too technical
and finished well back. With a different trainer you might consider Dedante
as a possible to overturn Percolator but not with Mr Ivory.
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Missy Due is a similarly cheap filly so there's no reason to expect
her to be a better type than Percolator anyway. Her trainer Willie Muir
has managed two above average years in Strike Rate terms with 2yos in the
last 3 but still hasn't convinced B2yoR he is fully in control. He has
been included in the FTO P&L tracking on the basis of his later season
record with long-proced 5-6f debuts. But, and it's a big one, he doesn't
get early season debut winners. He doesn't get early season winners at
all much and has only had two, both in May, before June in the last 5 seasons.
Each year he will run the odd early 2yo but they don't compete well until
they develop with racing typically. They may well win but only after a
number of runs to find their feet. So Missy Due isn't going to get involved
in 'model' 2yo world.
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However, a favourite like Percolator is one that B2yoR would be looking
to take on with a suitable opponent. If she wins comfortably at 11/10 or
5/4 then so-be-it and move on. She showed enough on debut to show she was
a ready racer but she did fade badly. The final performance level was poor
and she has to improve a lot from that to set a stiff target for a decent
newcomer (she may not be able to do that at all). Her trainer tends to
have runners mostly ready on debut and their form can tail off quickly.
To pull a few more stats into the thinking he has converted less than 50%
of his runners that placed (2nd or 3rd) FTO into season's winners over
the last 5 years. His record is 15-32 (i.e. 17 of the 32 debut placers
remained maidens).
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His STO record over 5f is 0-14 in the last 4 years and STO in March to
May is 0-9 in the last three years. You can make stats say things they
don't but a record like that at least means you should think why Percolator
is different from that group. To take an example and think about Tarkamara
blasting along at the front of the 5f fillies' maiden at Newmarket's Craven
Meeting on her debut 2 years. Only the later Group winner Silk Blossom
got past her. Where is she now? The last time B2yoR registered her she
was still struggling along as a maiden late in her 3yo season. This isn't
an isolated example either.
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Which means that supporting a 2,000 guineas filly who faded badly FTO to
a poor performance level at shorter odds makes no appeal. There will be
plenty of better value shorter prices during the season.
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Which brings us neatly to the obvious real alternative with Jamie Osborne's
Grand Plan. The trainer had his first runner at Kempton and had
a somewhat fortunate second in a very pecualiar race where the first 6
finished within a length of each other. That runner looked smaller and
limited in the preliminaries and no surprise to see just the usual level
of interetst in the Markey and a 7/2 SP. Grand Plan is the most expensive
filly in the field but only has to give 3lbs to Percolator and cost, relatively,
close to 10 times what that one did to buy. Her trainer doesn't target
strong debuts but will get the odd FTO wins with a better type or in a
weak race. Even with Percolator's profile this counts as a pretty weak
affair and if Grand Plan has any nous she should be able to keep close
enough to find a way past in the straight if she is good enough.
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In summary, the Market should be informative in assessing Percolator &
Grand Plan. If Grand Plan is a better one it should show and she might
compete for favouritism and could well still be value. If she's just an
'ordinary' one she could still be value assuming that Percolator will be
over-rated in those circumstances. The only possible alternative to one
of those two winning would be Lois Darlin improving enough but she showed
such a low level of form FTO that would seem too low a base.
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[The Paddock notes and summary of the Kempton race will be in the Preview
of Tuesday's Folkestone event. In general an unexciting field for a Class
4 as the result would indicate with Asaint Needs Brass the best type and
no reason to believe he wont prove to be the best of the field in the long
term.]
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