British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Preview - April 3rd 
Races :-
  • 8: Leicester 2:10, 5f Maiden (6)

  •   April 3rd Summary : 
    • We can lead into the maiden at Leicester by considering the performance of She's A Shaw Thing at Nottingham the day before. She did a good impression of Vhujon from 2007 when setting a pace which saw her draw clear of the Brocklesby winner and two newcomers. She only seemed to be slowing a little to the line and on soft ground did a time comparable to that of the 4yo Sonny Red once the weight-for-age of 2yos receiving 27lbs from 4yos in early April is taken into account. Which suggests that she may be up to Listed & Group class.
    • Her runner-up from the Warwick debut won comfortably at Lingfield this week while looking a useful early speedster. She's likely to go some combination of the Lily Agnes, Marygate/Hilary Needler/National Stakes & Queen Mary route and might run in them all the way the trainer campaigns his 2yos. Is she up to the class of the later races? On balance you would have to say no and despite the manner of the victory she's likely to prove an OR86-94 filly when the season unrolls and the better fillies come along. For one thing you would suspect that she's close to the finished article now and needs to find 10lbs of improvement to mid-season to stay at her current OR mark for example.
    • In the Nottingham race she was again showing her ability to act on easy ground over others who looked less comfortable on it. This is a different test to a fast race on firmer going against bigger & better fillies. On the plus side she probably ought to stay 6f on the way she has finished her races off so has some scope to find another race later.
    • That Warwick race which she won from Percolator might seem quite good in retrospect. However, you have to think that the first two have made strong improvement to their second outings and the form of the Warwick event not strong. She's A Shaw Thing was held up at Warwick and pulled clear with a second half of the race effort and didn't show the all out blitz she did at Nottingham. Percolater faded in the final furlong and finished close to fillies she must be much better than given the taking way she won at Lingfield. On a firmer surface and a less stiff track she won comfortably and could have extended the winning distance. But close behind in 5th & 6th at Warwick you had the Bill Turner pair who have both run moderately since to suggest the race wasn't above expectations or ratings behind the first two. The 4th from the race - Transcentral - takes on five colts in the Leicester race and should give the final indicator needed for to categorise the Warwick race.
    • Typical of that field she was a cheap purchase but showed some promise at a low level with a willing finish through to 4th while looking a 'tiny terrier'. On TV pictures she looked a usable seller/claimer class filly and if so will find the colts too tough here. Let's see what the paddock review brings.
    • The race is a 'Median Auction' which means the runners carry the same weights other than the 5lb allowance for fillies. They qualify for the race because they are by a sire who has established a 'Median' price with his yearlings & breeze up sales which is below the qualifying limit. This is a Class 6 so that is likely to be around the 25-30,000 guineas upper range. What that means is that quite expensive purchases can run so long as the sire's Median is below the value set.
    • Michael Bell has his first runner of the season with the 55,000 guineas yearling Art Connoisseur. He is the first runner for new sire Lucky Story and overall does not have a 5f early pedigree. The trainer is a real 'Mr Consistency' in his approach to 2yo racing. You should look at his stable summary for the years 1996-2007 and see that he found what he wanted to do in life early on and had been doing the same thing ever since. That's useful because it means he tends to run the same types in similar races on debut each year if he has them.
    • The early runners tend to be solid 2yo prospects with the odd duff one thrown in. In 2006 the earliest debuts were in later April with the expensive Kings Bastion (ordinary maiden winner), Hoh Mike (high class 5f) & Blue Monkey (at Leicester, expensive and a maiden during the year and running over 7f by 3TO). In 2007 it was a similar story with 4 April debuts made up of 3 solid yearling purchases (of which only on won for various reasons) and a duff but usable one. In general he only gets odd debut wins each year and with the better class runners.
    • With Jamie Spencer on board he's likely to be well fancied here but in the normal run of things he'll place unless he's very good (even Hoh Mike couldn't make up a blown start on his early debut). Something, from the other colts is likely to be a bit more ready for the day although there isn't a full package of ready and good pedigree in opposition.
    • We have already seen in the early races this season what a solid or useful 2yo can do when much fitter than the others with Sally's Dilemma and Mr Evans She's A Shaw Thing. He runs Come On Buckers here whose dam has produced a couple of 2yo winners with her first 2 foals and 5 non-entities since. His sire Fath can produce small, neat and ready 2yos that would suit the Evans methods but the overall profile is too low quality to expect a win in this company.
    • Trainer James Eustace does get his 2yos ready to compete on debut and has achieved a profit in across all his debuts in three of the last 4 seasons and a tiny profit across all debuts in that period. He doesn't get a lot of debut winners but his runners always start at 10/1 or more FTO. Joe Caster is by Makbul who is a positive for precocious 2yos out of an unraced mare. If he's running this early he ought to be up to winning something. But, the very earliest debuts in recent seasons for the trainer have been below his highly primed peak. A possible and a double figure winner if he does win.
    • Which leaves two from reliable trainers who ought to compete well.
    • Fyelehk is an early runner for his trainer and was entered for the Brocklesby. As highlighted in yesterday's preview his earliest debuts as usually winners at some level but they have tended to need the first run in the last two seasons. Prior to that you could rely on him having a debut winner early in the seasons and this one would have a solid profile.
    • Which leaves Rhydian for Mr Beckett who has already won with his first runner of the year. That one went like the best horse in his raced but tired (possible partly pulled himself up) when clear in the final furlong. He looks more an ordinary (say OR65-74) type on pedigree profile and the sort the trainer gets out early to try to ensure a win.
    • In summary, a very tricky race to feel confident about. Art Connoisseur may well end up as favourite because of his sales price and connections but is unlikely to be value. Transcentral & Come On Buckers will have a fitness edge but may lack the quality required in this field. Joe Caster represents a trainer who would rank only behind David Evans in this group for debut readiness but comes up a little short on the overall profile. For the paddock review B2yoR will be working on the plan to see which of Fyelekh & Rhydian have the right combination of readiness & quality to be the best option on the day.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    [None Today]
    • Rhydian - RM Beckett (All)
    • Come On Buckers - PD Evans (Long Shot)

    ~ ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 FYELEHK [38] - 1
    1 ART CONNOISSEUR [34] - 1
    5 RHYDIAN [32] - 1
    4 JOE CASTER [30] - 1
    2 COME ON BUCKERS [25] - 1
    6 TRANSCENTRAL [20] +5 2 3 1 3

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