British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Preview - April 11th 
Races :-
  • 16: Musselburgh 2:00, 5f Maiden (5)

  •   April 11th Summary : 
    • The Class 5 maiden at Musselburgh looks a low quality race on profile. Unless one of the runners is notably better than they appear a range of runners can reach the 20s rating that might be all that is needed to win.
    • Three horses have run and the best form shown is probably the third by Just The Lady at Folkestone. She appeared a small and ready type and was professional for debut and made the running on the advantageous rails. She showed some response when pressed before fading in the final furlong. She should improve her fitness for the run but will be vulnerable to a stronger finisher again. Her trainer seems to send 2yos to the course (a long way from his West Country base) in an attempt to find a weaker race they can win and he seems to have found one here. However none of his 10 2yos to have run at the track since 2002 have won with three second places the best results. Perhaps similar here.
    • Kevin Ryan has made a slow start to the season and his only runner to date has been Count Almaviva  at Southwell who finished a moderate third, as favourite, in a poor race at Southwell. That race was run in a much slower time than Bahamian Babe's race 5 day's later. Even allowing for possible differences in track preparation it looks a poor performance. In the last two seasons Mr Ryan has started out with a few lesser types before showing some better types on debut in mid April. He doesn't tune his early runners for debut so Count Almaviva has scope to improve his rating but from a low base such that he just competes for the top profile rather than being a strong profile.
    • Dispol Mulofky has a poor profile and managed to finish in front of Count Almaviva at Southwell and limits to upper end of that form. You would expect her to finish behind the Ryan colt here.
    • Which brings us to the newcomers and we can work from the bottom up starting with a pair of horses with different sales backgrounds but low ratings. Maigh Eo cost 32,000 guineas and is the first runner for new sire Elusive City who made his name with his juvenile sprint performances. He runs for a trainer with no record with 2yos so it is difficult to know how the debuts will be prepared. We saw with Musical Bridge (24,000gns and backed from 33/1 to 17/2 before a nose defeat) at Bath how these newer trainers can surprise. However, the sales report was pretty negative about him and couldn't see what the money was for so it seems unlikely he will provide a surprise.
    • Mel Brittain's Polish Pride failed to attract even the minimum bid when offered at the tail-end of the Tattersalls October yearling sales (when the lesser types are most numerous). He seemed to select the competent 2yos to run early in 2007 in his first year with a range of runners but their lack of class showed through and they couldn't turn that advantage into wins. More of the same here.
    • Both Russet Reward & Lady Fantasie run for reliable northern trainers and the Stubbs yard has already had a winner with Saxford (STO). Both get odd FTO wins and in this sort of race a win for them is possible. The strongest all-round profile with the debut runners is for Eoghan O'Neill's Especially For You. He has made an earlier than normal start and his first runner - Red Cell - was notably fit and forward in condition but could only finish 2nd of 4 because of his lack of ability. If she's running now we can assume his filly here will be ready enough to compete if she is good enough and this race may be easier than going up against Bahamian Babe as Red Cell did.
    • In summary, more a race to use to assess the strength of the previous form and the quality of the newcomers with a lack of an angle to identify a likely better performance. Just The Lady brings the most solid previous form and should run well but a solid debut performer could wear her down late on. Especially for you had the best prospects to be the one but the low ratings level mean that Lady Fantasie, and perhaps Russet Reward, could also compete for the win.
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    • The Preview for Saturday's two races at Doncaster & Wolverhampton will include some paddock notes from the events at Bath & Folkestone over the last two days (including an interesting 'lurker' in the Bath field).

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    [None Today]

    ~ EDIN 2:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    5 ESPECIALLY FOR YOU [28] +5 1 30
    6 JUST THE LADY [28] +5 2 18 1 18 11
    1 COUNT ALMAVIVA [26] - 2 15 1 15 32
    3 RUSSET REWARD [22] - 1 27
    7 LADY FANTASIE [19] +5 1 25
    4 DISPOL MULOFKY [17] +5 2 9 1 9 23
    8 POLISH PRIDE [12] +5 1 16
    2 MAIGH EO [4] - 1

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