** Note that due to on-course commitments there will be no preview for
Wednesday the 16th of April. On that day there are two races scheduled
Beverley 2:45 - 5f Auction race. Has a mixed history and two divisions
of the race produced a single later winner, in a seller. Last year's race
was much better - Result
- and included two useful later winners in Secret Asset & Taurian who
were both hampered at some point on their way to midfield finishes.
Newmarket 2:35 - 5f Conditions race. The Craven Meeting used to
run to three days with a Colts & Geldings maiden, one for fillies'
only and this Conditions race spread across the three days. Now down to
a two day meeting and the males' maiden has been dropped which means that
better colts may make their debut in this race. The first three home in
2007 were all newcomers with the winner a later Listed victor, the second
won at Group 1 level and the third was a dual winner. The previous three
winners of the race were all STO runners for Richard Hannon including two
that won at Group 2 level later. In summary, a race to take seriously if
the 'right' trainers have runners and especially worth noting the horse
Barry Hills chooses to run at the meeting.
The 5f maiden at Nottingham on Tuesday has an interesting
field and an early test of the strength of the Doncaster maiden from Saturday.
Eilean Eeve was well supported that day and you could argue showed some
promise in getting through to second after showing inexperience. The counter
argument, which B2yoR would have more time for, is that she lacked pace
to get involved in a weak race despite the advantage of running the rail
and Marygate's last half furlong fade made her look promising rather than
being self generated. She wasn't closing on the winner and there must be
something better here.
We have already seen with Saxford's win from Knavesmire at
Newcastle that track position probably conferred a notable advantage in
the Brocklesby. Calypso Girl ought to be a usable 2yo if David Evans
chose to ran her there but she never got competitive. However, she did
second best of those that tacked over from a low draw to centre field and
wasn't stopping at the finish. She didn't look as good a physical type
as Nothern Tour who did best of those disadvantaged and came from further
back. Overall, she seems likely to improve here and be a better prospect
than Eilean Eeve but lack the class for a solid newcomer.
One possibility would be Paul Cole's Shampagne and you
could wonder why he runs her here rather than in the fillies' maiden at
Warwick which he won with a debutante in 2007 (in a moderate race). She
scored well enough at the sales as a usable 2yo while being a lengthy &
boaty type, although solidly built with it. The trainer has his string
very well forward in 2008 (all age groups) and both 2yo runners have won
on STO. The two debuts were promising without looking likely to succeed
with one fading on heavy ground and the other massively bungling the start.
So a possible but would need to be a better debut and that should so up
in the vibes and the market in this case.
Kevin Ryan has made a quiet start to the year with just one
runner - Count Almaviva - who wasn't competitive on debut but snapped together
STO to go down by a nose in a modest race. The trainer doesn't prime his
2yos for debut as such but the better ones, aided by softer races can get
the job done. This race has the right feel about it as being soft enough
if Amorachy is any good.
The performance of Strictly Royal will be interesting.
He runs without his visor for STO after a display at Folkestone which hinted
at unco-operativeness and also possibly poor movement. Chris Catlin rides
this time and perhaps has been asked to 'sort him out' if that's possible.
He wasn't fit enough at Folkestone, nor mentally mature enough, to compete
anyway so it would be a surprise if he were to compete for the win here
even if he tries properly.
In summary, Kevin Ryan has been included in the P&L FTO
tracking for his solid record with debuts at 5f. We ought to be looking
out for him to introduce a better type soon and this race has a set-up
which can facilitate that type of debut win.
The Warwick seller includes three from the similar Bath race last
week. Heaven And Hell on his debut was allowed to dictate a slow pace there
and just scrambled home in a final furlong 'sprint' from Tarawa Atoll.
The colt has a 5lb penalty which means he's going to struggle to beat the
filly again. There's not much in the newcomers to get a grip on unless
Makaluna in any good but Bill Turner doesn't tend to go for debut wins
in these type of race. [As an aside it was interesting to see that his
two winners this year, both for Mick Easterby, were put up for an 'Online
Auction' by 'Chepstow' over the weekend.]
B2yoR rarely bets in sellers and will take some interest
in what the third runner from the Bath affair can manage. Tallulah Bells
was a complete nervous nutcase on the day. Whatever the jockey was paid
it ought to have been doubled. Having dragged two handlers around the ring
she the rolled over sideways when the jockey got on. If they didn't ride
so short she would have broken his leg for him. Having got onto the track
she then tried to unship him at various points. In the race she pulled
hard when held in behind and the jockey got his first bit of piece when
she got tired and dropped out.
Paddock review showed her to be an interesting type, low slung and heavily
built and with more power than many in the seller group, much heavier than
Joli Haven for example. But she's lengthy through the body and her movement
behind is range. This can be a good thing if it's controlled properly and
awful if it's not. She was wearing boots behind which suggests the ranginess
she shows means she bashes her hind legs on the front feet in the gallop.
A certain darker fascination in seeing how it all turns out this time.
The Warwick fillies' maiden has 8 newcomers in opposition exactly
as it did in 2007. Ultimately four of those behind Paul Cole's Piece Of
My Heart won during the year but it was hard work and only Mark Johnston's
(where' he this year?) Ramatni prove a proper 70+ rater. The bottom five
on profile don't appeal as likely winners unless this is a really weak
race so the choice looks to be between Barry Hills, Channon and David Evans.
On performance with debut runners so far in 2008 you would thin Evans'
Premier Krug would set a good standard but he tends to lack the
quality in his string to keep on turning out debut winners. He does seem
to have more runners in the 10-25,000gns range this year though and Premier
Krug is another and well enough related.
Mick Channon's debuts have mostly been more uncompetitive than his norm
but on the plus side Moss Likely runs for an owners' group he like
to do well for. On balance though you would want to see his string more
forward and this one Arab owned to expect a win.
Which leaves Barry Hills Kyllorien just on top on profile from the
Evans runner. His only runner to date ran deplorably in the Brocklesby
and we should expect his early runners to be more competitive. He has taken
a break until now and this week, as noted with the notes on Newmarket,
is when he ought to be getting into higher gear with his 2yos. If she's
here and not at Newmarket she's just an ordinary (say OR70-78) winner in
profile but that might be good enough here unless Premier Krug has a bit