British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - April 15th 
Races :-
  • 20: Nottingham 2:20, 5.1f Maiden (5)
  • 21: Warwick 2:30, 5f Seller (6)
  • 22: Warwick 3:00, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)

  • Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Amorachy - KA Ryan, Nottingham (5f)
    • Premier Krug - PD Evans, Wwck 3:00 (Long Shot)

      April 15th Summary : 
    • ** Note that due to on-course commitments there will be no preview for Wednesday the 16th of April. On that day there are two races scheduled with :-
      • Beverley 2:45 - 5f Auction race. Has a mixed history and two divisions of the race produced a single later winner, in a seller. Last year's race was much better - Result - and included two useful later winners in Secret Asset & Taurian who were both hampered at some point on their way to midfield finishes.
      • Newmarket 2:35 - 5f Conditions race. The Craven Meeting used to run to three days with a Colts & Geldings maiden, one for fillies' only and this Conditions race spread across the three days. Now down to a two day meeting and the males' maiden has been dropped which means that better colts may make their debut in this race. The first three home in 2007 were all newcomers with the winner a later Listed victor, the second won at Group 1 level and the third was a dual winner. The previous three winners of the race were all STO runners for Richard Hannon including two that won at Group 2 level later. In summary, a race to take seriously if the 'right' trainers have runners and especially worth noting the horse Barry Hills chooses to run at the meeting.
    • The 5f maiden at Nottingham on Tuesday has an interesting field and an early test of the strength of the Doncaster maiden from Saturday. Eilean Eeve was well supported that day and you could argue showed some promise in getting through to second after showing inexperience. The counter argument, which B2yoR would have more time for, is that she lacked pace to get involved in a weak race despite the advantage of running the rail and Marygate's last half furlong fade made her look promising rather than being self generated. She wasn't closing on the winner and there must be something better here.
    • We have already seen with Saxford's win from Knavesmire at Newcastle that track position probably conferred a notable advantage in the Brocklesby. Calypso Girl ought to be a usable 2yo if David Evans chose to ran her there but she never got competitive. However, she did second best of those that tacked over from a low draw to centre field and wasn't stopping at the finish. She didn't look as good a physical type as Nothern Tour who did best of those disadvantaged and came from further back. Overall, she seems likely to improve here and be a better prospect than Eilean Eeve but lack the class for a solid newcomer.
    • One possibility would be Paul Cole's Shampagne and you could wonder why he runs her here rather than in the fillies' maiden at Warwick which he won with a debutante in 2007 (in a moderate race). She scored well enough at the sales as a usable 2yo while being a lengthy & boaty type, although solidly built with it. The trainer has his string very well forward in 2008 (all age groups) and both 2yo runners have won on STO. The two debuts were promising without looking likely to succeed with one fading on heavy ground and the other massively bungling the start. So a possible but would need to be a better debut and that should so up in the vibes and the market in this case.
    • Kevin Ryan has made a quiet start to the year with just one runner - Count Almaviva - who wasn't competitive on debut but snapped together STO to go down by a nose in a modest race. The trainer doesn't prime his 2yos for debut as such but the better ones, aided by softer races can get the job done. This race has the right feel about it as being soft enough if Amorachy is any good.
    • The performance of Strictly Royal will be interesting. He runs without his visor for STO after a display at Folkestone which hinted at unco-operativeness and also possibly poor movement. Chris Catlin rides this time and perhaps has been asked to 'sort him out' if that's possible. He wasn't fit enough at Folkestone, nor mentally mature enough, to compete anyway so it would be a surprise if he were to compete for the win here even if he tries properly.
    • In summary,  Kevin Ryan has been included in the P&L FTO tracking for his solid record with debuts at 5f. We ought to be looking out for him to introduce a better type soon and this race has a set-up which can facilitate that type of debut win.
    • The Warwick seller includes three from the similar Bath race last week. Heaven And Hell on his debut was allowed to dictate a slow pace there and just scrambled home in a final furlong 'sprint' from Tarawa Atoll. The colt has a 5lb penalty which means he's going to struggle to beat the filly again. There's not much in the newcomers to get a grip on unless Makaluna in any good but Bill Turner doesn't tend to go for debut wins in these type of race. [As an aside it was interesting to see that his two winners this year, both for Mick Easterby, were put up for an 'Online Auction' by 'Chepstow' over the weekend.]
    • B2yoR rarely bets in sellers and will take some interest in what the third runner from the Bath affair can manage. Tallulah Bells was a complete nervous nutcase on the day. Whatever the jockey was paid it ought to have been doubled. Having dragged two handlers around the ring she the rolled over sideways when the jockey got on. If they didn't ride so short she would have broken his leg for him. Having got onto the track she then tried to unship him at various points. In the race she pulled hard when held in behind and the jockey got his first bit of piece when she got tired and dropped out.
    • Paddock review showed her to be an interesting type, low slung and heavily built and with more power than many in the seller group, much heavier than Joli Haven for example. But she's lengthy through the body and her movement behind is range. This can be a good thing if it's controlled properly and awful if it's not. She was wearing boots behind which suggests the ranginess she shows means she bashes her hind legs on the front feet in the gallop. A certain darker fascination in seeing how it all turns out this time.
    • The Warwick fillies' maiden has 8 newcomers in opposition exactly as it did in 2007. Ultimately four of those behind Paul Cole's Piece Of My Heart won during the year but it was hard work and only Mark Johnston's (where' he this year?) Ramatni prove a proper 70+ rater. The bottom five on profile don't appeal as likely winners unless this is a really weak race so the choice looks to be between Barry Hills, Channon and David Evans. On performance with debut runners so far in 2008 you would thin Evans' Premier Krug would set a good standard but he tends to lack the quality in his string to keep on turning out debut winners. He does seem to have more runners in the 10-25,000gns range this year though and Premier Krug is another and well enough related.
    • Mick Channon's debuts have mostly been more uncompetitive than his norm but on the plus side Moss Likely runs for an owners' group he like to do well for. On balance though you would want to see his string more forward and this one Arab owned to expect a win.
    • Which leaves Barry Hills Kyllorien just on top on profile from the Evans runner. His only runner to date ran deplorably in the Brocklesby and we should expect his early runners to be more competitive. He has taken a break until now and this week, as noted with the notes on Newmarket, is when he ought to be getting into higher gear with his 2yos. If she's here and not at Newmarket she's just an ordinary (say OR70-78) winner in profile but that might be good enough here unless Premier Krug has a bit more quality.

    ~ NOTT 2:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 AMORACHY [38] - 1 32
    4 CALYPSO GIRL [28] +5 2 -2 1 -2 21
    2 SHAMPAGNE [22] - 1 30
    5 EILEAN EEVE [19] +5 2 16 1 16 12
    3 STRICTLY ROYAL [18] - 2 35
    6 RIDGEWAY SILVER [16] +5 1 24

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    ~ WWCK 2:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    8 TARAWA ATOLL [17] +12 3 -70 1 -70 35
    1 HEAVEN OR HELL [14] - 2 21
    2 MAKALUNA [12] +5 1 11
    6 KHELEY [9] +12 1 17
    5 FUAIGH MOR [6] +12 1 32
    4 DANCING WAVE [4] +12 3 -2 1 -2 11
    3 CHAMPAGNE LEADER [2] +12 1 34
    7 TALULAH BELLS [2] +12 2 32

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    ~ WWCK 3:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 KYLLORIEN [32] - 1 39
    7 PREMIER KRUG [28] - 1 21
    6 MOSS LIKELY [25] - 1 35
    2 ASPEN DARLIN [18] - 1 32
    8 RIGHT PRICE [16] - 1 13
    5 MISS HOLLYBELL [10] - 1
    1 AGNES LOVE [8] - 1 1
    3 BETHIE [2] - 1

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