British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - April 19th 
Races :-
  • 31: Nottingham 5:30, 5f Maiden (5)
  • 32: Thirsk 2:05, 5f Claimer (5)

  •   April 19th Summary : 
    • Normal service should be resumed from Monday after an enforced break in producing Previews. There will be a review of the last week on Sunday when there is no 2yo race. The season has finally kicked into life over the past few days with a number of notable debuts and performances. It has also been instructive to see how weak some of the early races have proved with the competitors already struggling to compete as the number of 2yo runners pushes towards 200 and some better prospects have started out.
    • Some points to note for Nottingham's race :-
    • The form of Kingswinford debut run is better than that of Raggle Taggle and he faded in the final furlong on Bath's uphill track. On this easier track he should last home better and while clearly no Vhujon sets a reasonable standard here. Raggle Taggle has not been paddock reviewed and her place at the top of the profile depends on her having more scope to improve than Kingswinford. This will be a test of the low 30s rating for her debut second and there seems a strong possibility it is over-rated and she is a small, ready type with limited scope to improve. If she looks small against Kingswinford on TV pictures you should see her struggling to reach the level set for the day. The Evans colt is below medium size and this would make her too lightweight. 
    • The rest of the field doesn't look strong unless one of the newcomers in Harwalla & Voulezvous are average or above. The first named marks the initial 2yo runner of the season for Mark Johnston who took over first place in the trainers' list by Number Of Runners in 2007. This is a typical time for him to start and we should expect 5-6 more to start out by the end of April. In the last two years the newcomers in this month have split 50% season winners to non-winners. The group will include the best of his precocious 2yos who will go on to run in the Northern Conditions events prior to Royal Ascot. The best of these can win on debut but  the lesser ones can show quite variable performance and blowouts later in the race (at which point they always hang left).
    • Harwalla was a unusual buy by Hamdan Al Maktoum's advisors at the Doncaster St Leger sales. He does purchase a few yearlings each year targeted as precocious 2yo types but they tend to be pretty expensive with 60,000gns counting as loose change. Think of Laith who cost 200,000gns+ for example who now kicks around, mostly unsuccessfully, in the basement grade. Or perhaps Qadar who went for a record 250,000gns at the same sale and has proved a useful 90s type once with other connections. So, at 32,000gns Harwalla was untypical. He has a dam who won a Group 3 in Italy and who has produced a Listed winner in that country but nothing to really get the blood going and at that price no-one else wanted him much either. The sales review that came back suggested a small, solidly built early 2yo but nothing much above average unless he developed very well. A more likely placer on debut.
    • Eoghan O'Neill normally picks the early runners for his stable well and they have, in recent seasons, competed well FTO. He's run two so far this year and both have been poor types who ran poorly FTO. He presumably ran those because he knew they weren't worth waiting with with competition strengthening. If Voulezvous is better quality she might surprise and on evidence to date the 'Market' may be of some help in this particular instance.
    • The Thirsk claimer features a Bill Turner 2yo dropped to the grade after just one go. On looks Dazzling Dust should go well in the grade and many trainers would not 'give up on him' so early. He's a good size and strong enough although with a shallow body and his legginess doesn't match his body length. He was too immature to show to his best on debut at Bath. At heart Mr Turner doesn't really believe he can compete above seller & claimer level with his horses and always retreats to them at the earliest point. The large majority of his wins come at those levels. 

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • KR Burke (5-6f, but note his positive record rests on debuts in the late May to early June period). Johnmanderville (Notts) & Bold Account (topweight in Thirsk Claimer).
    • RA Fahey - (5f, as with Karl Burke his best period each year tend to be in early summer. Gets odd earlier debuts with naturals and had one in a weak race at Beverley last Tuesday.) - Rose Of Coma (Thirsk Claimer).

    ~ NOTT 5:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    6 RAGGLE TAGGLE [41] +5 2 32 1 32 26
    4 KINGSWINFORD [38] - 2 36 1 36 21
    7 VOULEZVOUS [34] +5 1 1
    2 HARWALLA [32] - 1 1 32
    1 CALL ME COURAGEOUS [23] - 2 16 1 16 34
    3 JOHNMANDERVILLE [22] - 1 1 24
    5 LISBURN [20] +5 1 1 16

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    ~ THSK 2:05 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 DAZZLING DUST [28] +4 2 10 1 10 11
    4 HEAVEN OR HELL [25] +10 3 15 2 4 21
    6 KEISER BLUE [22] +11 1 1 33
    8 ROSE OF COMA [19] +13 1 1 36
    7 NAUGHTY NATZ [18] +13 1 1 23
    10 SYRUP [18] +17 2 2 -7 21
    1 BOLD ACCOUNT [17] - 1 1 24
    9 GABORONE [15] +15 1 1 35
    3 KNEESY EARSY NOSEY [13] +9 1 1 12
    5 FANGFOSS GIRLS [5] +11 1 1

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