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Normal service should be resumed from Monday after an enforced break in
producing Previews. There will be a review of the last week on Sunday when
there is no 2yo race. The season has finally kicked into life over the
past few days with a number of notable debuts and performances. It has
also been instructive to see how weak some of the early races have proved
with the competitors already struggling to compete as the number of 2yo
runners pushes towards 200 and some better prospects have started out.
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Some points to note for Nottingham's race :-
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The form of Kingswinford debut run is better than that of Raggle Taggle
and he faded in the final furlong on Bath's uphill track. On this easier
track he should last home better and while clearly no Vhujon sets a reasonable
standard here. Raggle Taggle has not been paddock reviewed and her place
at the top of the profile depends on her having more scope to improve than
Kingswinford. This will be a test of the low 30s rating for her debut second
and there seems a strong possibility it is over-rated and she is a small,
ready type with limited scope to improve. If she looks small against Kingswinford
on TV pictures you should see her struggling to reach the level set for
the day. The Evans colt is below medium size and this would make her too
lightweight.
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The rest of the field doesn't look strong unless one of the newcomers in
Harwalla
& Voulezvous are average or above. The first named marks the
initial 2yo runner of the season for Mark Johnston who took over first
place in the trainers' list by Number Of Runners in 2007. This is a typical
time for him to start and we should expect 5-6 more to start out by the
end of April. In the last two years the newcomers in this month have split
50% season winners to non-winners. The group will include the best of his
precocious 2yos who will go on to run in the Northern Conditions events
prior to Royal Ascot. The best of these can win on debut but the
lesser ones can show quite variable performance and blowouts later in the
race (at which point they always hang left).
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Harwalla was a unusual buy by Hamdan Al Maktoum's advisors at the Doncaster
St Leger sales. He does purchase a few yearlings each year targeted as
precocious 2yo types but they tend to be pretty expensive with 60,000gns
counting as loose change. Think of Laith who cost 200,000gns+ for example
who now kicks around, mostly unsuccessfully, in the basement grade. Or
perhaps Qadar who went for a record 250,000gns at the same sale and has
proved a useful 90s type once with other connections. So, at 32,000gns
Harwalla was untypical. He has a dam who won a Group 3 in Italy and who
has produced a Listed winner in that country but nothing to really get
the blood going and at that price no-one else wanted him much either. The
sales review that came back suggested a small, solidly built early 2yo
but nothing much above average unless he developed very well. A more likely
placer on debut.
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Eoghan O'Neill normally picks the early runners for his stable well and
they have, in recent seasons, competed well FTO. He's run two so far this
year and both have been poor types who ran poorly FTO. He presumably ran
those because he knew they weren't worth waiting with with competition
strengthening. If Voulezvous is better quality she might surprise and on
evidence to date the 'Market' may be of some help in this particular instance.
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The Thirsk claimer features a Bill Turner 2yo dropped to the grade
after just one go. On looks Dazzling Dust should go well in the
grade and many trainers would not 'give up on him' so early. He's a good
size and strong enough although with a shallow body and his legginess doesn't
match his body length. He was too immature to show to his best on debut
at Bath. At heart Mr Turner doesn't really believe he can compete above
seller & claimer level with his horses and always retreats to them
at the earliest point. The large majority of his wins come at those levels.
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