British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - April 26th 
Races :-
  • 37: Haydock 5:50, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)
  • 38: Leicester 2:15, 5f Maiden (5)
  • 39: Ripon 4:50, 5f Fillies' Auction (5)

  • Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Aahaygirl  (Haydock. KR Burke's record with late May & early June debuts at 5-6f is good. Rare earlier debut winners.
    • Maggie Lou (Haydock.  KA Ryan has a good record with 5f debuts. Slow start in 2008 but should see better debuts any time.)
    • Missile Dodger (Leicester. RM Beckett has a solid all round debut record. This one looks too cheap and limited on profile in a toughish race.)
    • Simple Rhythm (Leicester. Bred by the trainer and a filly against colts in a toughish race. Trainer normally gets debut winners in March-May period with better types but this does not fit that profile)

      April 26th Summary : 
    • Three very interesting maidens for a Saturday after a rather empty week. At Leicester the shape of the profile seems to simplest to grasp. Peter Chapple-Hyam has a very good record with his second time out (STO) runners and a good profit with those runners in most areas whatever categories you split them by. One area where the record has been only lightly tested is with STO runs prior to June. Only two STO runs have produced one short priced winner and a very small profit. But, a profit.
    • Since he came back to train in the UK from a lucrative, if not that successful, spell in Hong Kong he has run only a few early 2yos. These have been a mix of some precocious ones with limited ambitions but have often included some of his best 2yos. The 14 juveniles to make their debuts in April and May for him during 2004-7 are split as 10 who won during the season and 4 that did not. Those four non-winners included three that ran only once (the 2007 example was Orientalist Art in 2007 who has shown himself to be useful already in 2008) and the placer Silver Hotspur who is now proving himself a solid type as a 4yo. Which means that his reputation as a good judge of a 2yo looks sound to the point of being concreted in. 
    • With a good group of 2yos in 2007 the first runner was Winker Watson (Group 2 winner), followed by three who won Listed races in the year - Polar Circle, Declaration of War & Western Art. The previous year two serviceable juveniles capable of rating in the low 70s (OR) were followed by Tariq & Dutch Art running all over their maiden fields for debut successes. 
    • The trainer has run two so far this year with Skid Solo running second at odds-on while trying to look like Winker Watson and Rayvin Mad finished 7th in a big field for a Newmarket conditions race. He started at 11/2 and ran better than that finishing position suggests. He was reportedly a ready 2yo type in appearance and assisted with the pacemaking as he ran the far rail. The horses he worked with were already winners and they combined to set too strong a pace. The first three past halfway were in 2nd to 4th at the furlong marker and faded together uphill to finish together in 6th to 8th. He set a solid debut rating even with the fade and should be at his peak here in a weaker group. Which means he is going to set a very stiff standard for a newcomer here.
    • The unusual horse in opposition is Jeremy Noseda's Waffle. As he was developing towards his current status as 'larger' stable Mr Noseda could whizz up a 2yo for debut to match just about anyone. The days of following up a Brocklesby placer by producing an expensive horse (Distant Mist) hard fit on March 31st to iron out a field of early, AW, rabbits as he did in 2001 are presumably history. He hasn't had a runner before May in the last two years and is notable for targetting starting his best 2yos out in late May and early June. The best of these can win FTO on ability rather than priming and even the better ones can be heavy on the artlessness. As with Chapple-Hyam his earliest runners each season will include his very best mixed in with some more modest, but competitive at the 65-75 range at least, talents.
    • So, the question is why Waffle is starting out this early. Go back to the 2003-5 period and the last four horses he started out in April are a likeable bunch. In 2003 he ran Peak To Creek to finish third in this Leicester race when he was behind La Cucaracha (older Group 1 winner). He won 7 times as a juvenile ending with a Group 3 success. In 2004 his only debut runner before May was Blue Dakota who won the Group 3 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. His last two April start-outs were in 2005 with the Group placed Salut D'Amour and the, erhem..., useless Zafarilla.
    • Waffle's has a moderate pedigree with his dam being one of those 85ish rated fillies who can get Listed placed at 2yo without being anything notable in quality terms. She was the best of a moderate family and has produced three previous foals which the sales catalogues try to sweep under the carpet. Which makes it interesting he cost a very high €180,000 as a yearling. With all that background you can easily convince yourself Waffle could be pretty good and might push Rayvin Mad reasonably hard.
    • Some interest behind in which of the others can show enough to be minor winners although you wouldn't expect them to compete for the win today (although worth noting the useless Soul Provider was a strong finishing 4th just behind Peak To Creek back in 2003 and these maidens often don't spread abilities out fully). Golden Missile has a much stronger pedigree than Waffle but only cost $25,000 when bought as a yearling in the US and that had declined to £15,000 when he was sold at the Kempton 2yo breeze-up sale in March (i.e. a loss to the 'pinhooker' trying to make a buy-to-sell profit). Give Waffle his pedigree and he probably would have cost even more assuming the price in Ireland was for his physical appearance. Anyway, Golden Missile seems likely to be the 'fun 2yo' end of things rather than a better 2yo for his reliable trainer.
    • Johnmanderville's trainer Karl Burke brings his 2yos along as a group to peak from later May onwards and has only had one win prior to that in the last three years. This one looked a solid size and build on debut when he blew the break and then got into the group well enough aided by an ordinary race pace. As soon as the pace quickened he was left behind but the slow start is some excuse. This seems more likely to be a development run and should be a solid improvement from his first go. What level of rating he shows here would be a good indicator as to what he can reach into May when at his peak.
    • Tom Dascombe runs Classic Blade who just about has a 5f pedigree and the trainer seems to be targetting some early runners this year. The only one to actually run so far missed the break too badly to provide a FTO win even in a weak race. This is a stronger one so another to assess.
    • Mick Quinlan's filly Simple Rhythm was bred by the family and has a limited quality pedigree and a 5lb apprentice. She seems more likely to be the limited type getting going early rather than the better type of debut for the handler.
    • In summary, a really interesting race at the front between Rayvin Mad and Waffle providing the second of those doesn't show too much inexperience. Hopefully he's another better type of early debut for the trainer and one to follow. 
    • The Ripon race is a fillies' auction race. This means that they carry different weights depending upon how much they cost at the sales and with an upper limit on the amount. The top weight is Mousy Mousy who looks the Tim Easterby second string on jockeys and she cost 22,000gns. A sizeable sum for most of us but barely reaching lower-to-average level in the current sales market. The bottom weights get 8lbs from her and cost between 2,000 to 3,800gns which is the bargain basement and off-cuts section. Remember that the minimum bid at most sales is in the 500-800gns range to deter any 'meat market' traders buying live 'carcasses' to transport for the european market.
    • The consideration of how much these weight allowances affect the results is a research project in it's own right. In general the effect of weight differences is treated differently by various sections of the racing followers. At one extreme you have the 'Linear effect' handicappers where 1lb extra equals the same change in expressed performance no matter what. At the other end you have the I-dont-factor-weight-into-the-calculations-at-all types. 
    • This tends to look a lot like the responses to the problems of non-linear equations that turn up in various areas like trying to model how friction effects work. At one end you can assume the effect is close to linear in the limited range you are working in (the handicapper approach) or to assume the effect is so small you can ignore it (..the 'imagine the billiard ball is rolling on smooth granite so that friction can be ignored' approach, or perhaps the old one about '...let's assume a spherical horse').
    • The B2yoR view is that the effect is non-linear with steeper curved areas in the graph mixed in with flatter areas which equate to 'Class Levels'. Choose a steeper curved part of the graph and the 'Linear Effect' approach fits quite well. Choose a flat area and the 'ignore it' approach fits well enough. Try and apply either across the whole range and they wouldn't work. The BIG but is that handicaps gather together horses in relatively small ability ranges so that in the limited ranges either model can be bodged to give sensible answers.
    • The important point to note is the existence of 'Class Levels' and what happens if you try to step a horse out of it's comfortable competition level. If we take this fillies' race as an example if the 2,000gns filly is a rabbit and she's receiving 8lbs from a filly who belongs in the next higher class the weight won't bring them together. It brings together athletes in the same range on the Class 'Plateaus' but you need much bigger allowances to jump between them. At the root of this is how the horse's performance breaks down under race pace pressure in the three main 'drive' areas. This isn't linear and hence the Class levels.
    • Or, you could sidestep all that and sidle up to a bloke in the betting shop and ask whether they think 8lbs is enough for Caranbola to beat the topweight. This isn't a handicap so the horses haven't been gathered together in an arranged quality band. But, the price the topweight can cost is limited to attempt to keep out better types that you couldn't assign enough of a weight differential to that would bring the different physical types together. Even so, the received wisdom with auction races is that the topweights will be the better types and be able to overcome any weight disparities given a level playing field. Well, Mousy Mousy has had a typical Tim Easterby debut preparation and Caranbola managed to run his best early filly close off level weights )ignoring the apprentice's 3lb) so they are on different playing fields. Caranbola sets a solid standard off bottom weight to judge the others by.
    • Woteva ran in another auction race on debut where the draw (stalls 10 & 11 where the first pair home typically) and competence meant that the higher weights didn't figure. More tilted playing fields. That looked similar form to Caranbola's and she has to give that filly 4lbs and it looks a tight choice between them.
    • Kevin Ryan had a filly on STO well beaten in the race last year and runs a similar type with Fasliyanne. She's a small, neat, early 2yo without longer term prospects and this is presumably her level despite the Newmarket debut. She wouldn't be a class above the others but is likely to be a lowish value price given her connections and 'major course form'.
    • The really interesting runners in Willie Haggas' The Magic Of Rio. The Leicester notes cover how the early debut for Waffle might indicate a better type. Mr Haggas is an even later starter with his 2yos than Noseda normally. Until this year he had a total of 3 runs before June in 2002-7. He has already run one filly in 2008 with Danehill Destiny a taking winner of the Newmarket maiden that Fasliyanne ran in. 
    • Like both Noseda & Chapple-Hyam the earliest debuts for Haggas include a mix of ready & usable types along with the best he has. His earliest runner in 2003 was Majestic Missile (2yo Group winner), 2005 Sharplaw Star (Queen Mary placer) & 2006 Conquest (Group 2 winner) and Group winner Enticing was the third out. None of those started before mid June. On that basis we can assume Danehill Destiny is Queen Mary bound. So, why is The Magic Of Rio out this early? If she's any good she could win this first go but it seems more likely she's a precocious 75-82 type in the longer term like his first runners last year.
    • The others don't really appeal as possible winners with the pair with experience of Dispol Mulofky not good enough and lacking scope to progress and Meg Jicaro likely not to be quick enough and staying on at the finish again. The others seem unlikely to be ready/good enough FTO with the possible exception of  Fashion Icon. She has positives in that trainer David Barron does get FTO winners and is by a sire who made a very good start to his career in 2007. If she is running this early she ought to be a usable 2yo by the trainer's methods and he likes to put his horses in the right grade to compete. But his FTO strike rate is very variable (0-18% range in recent years) and you don't know what you are going to get with his first runners until they start. On balance one to check closely for promise rather than a winner on the day.
    • In summary, Fasliyanne made a typical debut for the trainer to be an average winner without being overpowering in this grade and may well be poor value. Caranbola seemed to make a solid debut and tests the Anglezarke form and her trainer is in better form this year and appeals as an alternative depending on the prices. Given the background fascinating to see why The Magic Of Rio is here, hopefully not just because she's a duff runaround.
    • The Ripon auction maiden has produced a solid set of recent winners with all of those successful since 2001 fitted a profile of OR80s raters. Because of their early starts they can often find a second race to win but then find Listed+ events too taxing. You could point to Bow Bridge's Listed race win in 2005 as being a win above that level but that doesn't really work. She won the first edition of the 'Marygate Stakes' in May for fillies which hasn't proved up to Listed class and she struggled in weak versions of better races later. She beat Gamble In Gold & Ooh Aah Camara for her Listed win who both competed off OR85-89 ratings as 3yos to give a further clue to the quality of filies that can be Listed types and Queen Mary placers in many years.
    • Which brings us to Haydock which could be a stronger field than Ripon in theory because the top level limit on purchase price is removed and home breds can also run. Last year the race was won in taking style by newcomer Janina who cost Hamdan Al Maktoum 110,000gns. The first six home included Jennifers Joy  who cost €150,000, Socceroo at 40,000gns and Edie Superstar at $260,000 and none of them would have been able to get into the Ripon race. But it wasn't a strong race for all that (Result) with only Janina going on to win at higher level and the other 15 fillies' struggled to add in three open maiden wins. Janina won the suspect Marygate Stakes before stepping up to 6f and finding the shape of the race against her at Royal Ascot in the Albany Stakes. Interesting to see whether she's better than that OR85-90 range as a 3yo. She ought to be on looks.
    • A smaller field at Haydock this year and a cheaper one overall with the top three on profile in the 45,000 to 65,000gns range. Maggie Lou is a homebred who is probably racing for a partnership before being retained by her breeders for her stud career. She has a solid enough pedigree but the stable's main jockey is at Ripon so perhaps she isn't an above average debut type. That would make her a placed runner today off a typical debut.
    • The two runners with form fared differently FTO. Cecilia's Lass was the 'Class' of her group as a 28,000gns purchase in the second race of the season at Warwick. But, like the trainer's first ever 2yo runner in the Brocklesby she never got involved. Both have had breaks suggesting the trainer thought he went too far with the 'leaving something to work on' bit. But, she showed so little in a weak race, with the set ground as a possible excuse, to expect her to compete for the win.
    • Camelot Communion ran only 5 days ago at Pontefract in a race which was just a jog around the Park and not a proper race. She might well have worked harder at home aside from finding the steep section into the straight not quite to her liking. She made up 1.5 lengths of the 2 length start donated to the leader in the home straight and a solid enough effort but a poor rating because of the slow race time. The trainer has run eight 2yos back within 7 days of debut in the last 4 years with no wins, 3 places and 5 unplaced which is a bit of a worry. So, she sits at the top of the profile but with an ordinary profile rating and one she didn't run close to FTO.
    • There isn't a 'Janina' in the rest of the field on profile and the best of them don't run for trainers who get FTO winners much at this time of the year. Tim Easterby runs Wigan Pier & if she is a normal debut she'll be out the back looking as at home as a fins on the deck of a boat. The stable's main jockey is again at Ripon and rides the lower weighted of the fillies in the Auction race. She rates higher than normal in the profile because she is an expensive purchase for the trainer (his typical range is 20-25,000gns and she cost 65,000) and he can get odd strong debut runs.
    • Aahaygirl at €70,000 is at the expensive end of her trainer's purchase price range as well. He does get 2yo debut winners but usually in a group staring from after mid-May. If she is here because she's especially precocious as well as good this is a winnable race for her but the trainer's debuts at this stage of the year usually run out of puff in the last furlong.
    • The others below Maggie Lou are cheaper purchases and could have got into the Ripon event. On 'Class' terms only Bahamian Ceilidh looks competitive if the better profiles include a good type. She's another example of a trainer going back to a 'family' he knows and she's the third foal from the dam to end up with Rod Millman. The first was a very good 2yo in Cop Hill Lad and the other a pretty limited filly. Mr Millman seems to have stopped the debut win attempts after the remarkable 2005 start so an educational intro seems more likely.
    • In summary, not a race to have strong views about. Camelot Communion has a '2' next to her name and may well be ok material but she didn't actually achieve a lot FTO and her trainer doesn't have a great record of converting off short breaks to STO. A stronger debut performance could easily see her turned over as favourite but she has got a little lucky there because there doesn't seem to be a Janina. Wigan Pier is at least as likely to be a blowout as a winner so you'd need 10/1+ to be inerested. Aahaygirl & Maggie Lou provide the most solid debut types to upset and on pure 'time of the season' grounds you would go for Maggie Lou.

    ~ HYDK 5:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    5 CAMELOT COMMUNION [32] - 2 16 1 16 25
    9 WIGAN PIER [28] - 1 22
    1 AAHAYGIRL [26] - 1 24
    7 MAGGIE LOU [25] - 1 32
    3 BAHAMIAN CEILIDH [20] - 1 28
    4 BETWS Y COED [14] - 1 32
    8 NEO'S MATE [13] - 1 23
    6 CECILIA'S LASS [12] - 2 -35 1 -35
    2 AVONLINI [4] - 1

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    ~ LEIC 2:15 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    5 RAYVIN MAD [44] - 2 36 1 36 51
    6 WAFFLE [35] - 1 31
    2 JOHNMANDERVILLE [25] - 2 3 1 3 24
    1 CLASSIC BLADE [24] - 1
    7 SIMPLE RHYTHM [19] +5 1 23
    3 MISSILE DODGER [16] - 1 26
    4 NOWORNEVA [3] - 2 -38 1 -38 24

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    ~ RIPN 4:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 FASLIYANNE [36] +4 2 31 1 31 32
    9 CARANBOLA [35] +8 2 26 1 26 16
    2 THE MAGIC OF RIO [33] +2 1
    5 WOTEVA [32] +4 2 28 1 28 33
    7 FASHION ICON [28] +6 1 32
    10 DISPOL MULOFKY [24] +8 3 15 2 9 23
    12 MEG JICARO [20] +8 2 3 1 3
    4 JILLOLINI [19] +4 1 22
    1 MOUSY MOUSY [12] - 1 22
    6 BRIERTY [11] +6 1 39
    11 FRENCH FOREST [11] +8 1 16
    8 MAGICAL NIGHT [8] +6 1

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