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Last year's edition of the Windsor fillies' Auction was won by Affirmatively
(Result) who had
previously run in midfield in the female's maiden at the Craven Meeting.
She was a very light framed, taller filly who had looked fit and lean on
debut and ran for a reliable 2yo trainer. Despite the 14 runner field and
a low draw away from the favoured stands' rail she managed to get to the
lead and across to the stands' side. She hung on, and left late in typical
Windsor style, to win from a moderate set. The whole field managed four
later wins and none in open maiden company (2 x nurseries and 2
x auction races). Which tells you that Affirmatively wasn't beating much
and with an added fitness and experience advantage.
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This year's race is the same, but different. Beat Seven
ran fourth in the equivalent Newmarket race on debut and now comes
to this race and is poorly drawn in 4 of 16. Like Affirmatively she faces
an inexperienced field with the only other runner who has run before being
Lois Darlin who has missed the break on both starts and well back
at halfway. If you put the pair of Affirmatively
& Beat Seven
together in pictures anyone should be able to see the difference. You would
prefer the longer term prospects of Beat Seven to improve with racing and
prove a better 2yo and Affirmatively failed badly in Listed & Group
races after the Windsor race when trying to 'blag some black type' for
her owner breeder.
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One difference is that you knew the trainer with David Elsworth could convert
promise to wins STO and that he had the filly as ready as he could have
her for the race. She was also allowed to go on and lead to make the most
of the track position advantage. Gaye Kelleway has only had two wins with
2yos since 2000 from 23 runners. They were both with horses claimed from
other stables and on their third goes for her care. If Beat Seven were
drawn 14, trained by David Loder and allowed to make the pace you'd be
confident she could get the job done here. She's a positive on paddock
review and would be unlucky to find a useful and nippy one lurking in the
rest of the group.
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After a slow pick-up at Newmarket she got fired up as the jockey urged
her on and ended up running all over the back of the limited filly setting
a slower pace. Which may well mean they will try to drop her in and ride
her for a finish which is more open to problems arising than the Elsworth
approach in 2007. Anyway, she looked one to follow and this is a winnable
race so she's backable but with some extra needed in the price to make
her value given the niggles.
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If the race is run on good-to-firm then a high draw in this big
field would be an advantage. Fazbee comes out best of the newcomers
but is drawn 1 which is a real problem. Her trainer typically runs his
best 2yos in the early batches and has them fit and mentally ready enough
to win FTO if they are good enough. It's a sign of a poor year for him
if none of his early runners can compete for the win and places. In 2002
he won the equivalent of this race with a newcomer and last year the useful
Kylayne easily won her debut in early April for example. Only places on
debut with his early runners in between but they were more limited types
who were close to their best FTO. Her suitability for this race relies
entirely on the sire Fasliyev who is ok in that context as the dam was
slow and hasn't produced a winner.
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Those higher up the profile and better drawn include Premier
Demon for David Evans who presents a strong profile if she is any good.
A good 2yo pedigree overall, although her more expensive sister was 13th
in the 2007 version of this race, well drawn and with a trainer who gets
strong debuts. The fact she's starting this late in the year when the trainer
has already had three fillies win in 2008 suggests she's less of a natural.
The trainer ran a duff one with Polish Priory in the race last year. A
mixed story.
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Johnny Portman isn't really a 'FTO trainer' and always used to
be more of a 'peak 3TO' type. He always had his runners above average fitness
FTO but they lacked the nous to get involved and often had educational
debuts. He has had a 33/1 debut winner with a better type in a small field
this season with his only runner. His filly Readily is well drawn
and has a solid 5f 2yo pedigree so could compete but a win for this type
of filly would be untypical for him.
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Richard Hannon has started a range of quality out in this race and won
it with a precocious 80+ rater in 2005 with Gamble In Gold. He's now settled
down into his typical debut style after three early wins which would mean
Daddy's
Gift would have to be a similar type to win FTO. Similar comments would
apply to Jamie Osborne's Mount Ella who is topweight (cost 'only'
23,000gns) and has to give 3-9lbs to the others on debut. That feels like
too much given that the trainer doesn't prime his juveniles for debut (like
Hannon, the best can succeed in winnable races on ability). Paul Cole's
Meydan Groove (a daughter of THE In The Groove but only 11,000gns)
seems more likely to be a lesser types and his debut runners have been
pretty variable to date, even the STO winners.
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In summary, you can split the previous 6 winners of the race into
usable fillies on STO (Affirmatively, Camissa & Craft Fancy) and debut
winners who were the 'class' of their fields (Gamble In Gold, High Chart
& Cherokee Bay). Other than Gamble In Gold being the 'class' of the
field didn't amount to very much in High Chart & Cherokee Bay's cases.
This race features a solid STO filly with Beat Seven and with a better
draw and a different trainer you could be pretty confident she would convert
her first outing promise. The niggles mean you would want a bigger price
to be interested and would like to see her allowed to make the pace if
necessary and get to the nearside rail. The best of the newcomer profiles
in Fazbee has a stiff task from stall one but ought to place if she has
any ability. You are then into the profiles with as much 'space' as firm
bits to stand on. If Beat Seven fails a tight call between a group of fillies
at just a moderate level of performance required to win and place.
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