British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Preview - April 29th 
Races :-
  • 42: Bath 2:10, 5f Auction (6)

  •   April 29th Summary : 
     
    • Another Auction race today with a good version at Bath. The two recent Auction races for fillies have been lower quality events with the limit on topweights around 25,000gns. They have been won by fillies who had shown good form on debut and converted that promise in receipt of weight STO. The winner at Ripon cost 2,000gns and yesterday's Windsor victress cost 10,000gns. So, there are bargains at the sales if you know what to look for.
    • This Bath race has a different shape to it and has a history of producing good winners. The main provider of the quality has been Richard Hannon but a range of other stables have chipped in with solid 2yos. Hannon won the race for 4 years consecutively starting with Presto Vento's win in 2002. That filly went on to win the Supersprint and was a Listed winner at 3yo. The 3 colts that followed included two (Soonest & Green Pride) who rated 95+ and the other was an 80+ type. In 2006 Brian Meehan won with the useful Deadshot Keen on STO and Hannon had solid placer Kyle third on his debut. Last year Ed McMahon provided a useful debut winner for John Fretwell with a solid Meehan filly in second and a Hannon 70ish rater well back.
    • With that record you would be disappointed if the three who have already run can win this race. Smalljohn & Miss Hollybell both come to the race having managed places in previous runs but the form isn't even good seller standard taking a 'whole season' view. Both are smaller, limited, types and the topweights in this auction should include some who are just plain too good for them. This is not a race with the same profile make-up as those fillies' events. In theory Fyelekh should perhaps be taken a bit more seriously as he cost 30,000gns so could be one of those better topweights. But he looked immature both mentally and physically at Leicester on debut and ran poorly in a moderate quality race. You can already here the pundit saying that Fyelekh finished 7 lengths behind Art Connoisseur on debut and if he came on a bit for that, etc. But the winner won so comfortably that line of reasoning doesn't stand up. Fyelekh was a negative on Paddock Review and got well beaten by Transcentral.
    • The difference between the outlook for this race and the Ripon/Windsor affairs extends further because there are a range of horses on debut who come from serious trainers and at least 2 ought to be up cruising past Smalljohn as he wilts into the final furlong. Peter Winkworth has an NH background and started running a few 2yos back in 2004 when he had a 20/1 debut winner with his second juvenile runner and that one went on to place in the Windsor Castle. The quality has been variable in the years since then but the debut readiness has usually been there. Debut winners at 20/1 in 2006 and 40/1 last year have got him into the 'Long Shot' P&L tracking for 2008.
    • He's had 11 other placed debuts 2005-7, mostly at longer odds, including a 66/1 third in this race behind Hannon's Green Pride in 2005. His first 2yo runner ran respectably in 6th at Windsor yesterday and Hatchet Man has a stronger profile and you presume is close to his best early 2yo. He cost 32,000gns and his dam was well related although she hasn't done much as stud to date. He's by new sire Needwood Blade who we are still learning about and didn't make any impact at 2yo although ne proved a Group class 5f winner as an older horse. Anyway, a solid profile and a lively outsider if at typical odds for the trainer despite his wide draw.
    • Bryn Palling is hidden away in Wales and the word 'unfashionable' fits very well with him. As with Winkworth, the market has a blind spot with him and doesn't take him seriously. But, he gets his 2yos fit and ready for debut and the odd FTO wins he gets are always at longer odds. He gets into the P&L tracking as well and runs Abhainn here on debut. This is a bit early for him to get a debut winner and his earliest runners have typically been more ordinary to moderate types who struggle to win although can show up well FTO through pure tuning. Abhainn is by Hawk Wing who managed just a single 5f win in his first year with representatives in 2007 and the dam has looked more of a 6f+ producer. So, a less complete profile than Hatchet Man but he could well show up near the front of the race when the music stops, and at a longer SP.
    • Given the Hannon background anything he runs here has to be taken seriously and he has the cheapish (14,000gns) filly Caressing on debut. The normal mantra applies. His debut runners are rarely strongly primed and the ones that win FTO are usually higher class runners who win on ability. Caressing has just an okish pedigree and doesn't look a better type on profile. But, Presto Vento only cost 18,500gns when she ran away with this in 2002 and you could say the same. The 'Market' might be a little help here if she gets backed down to 4/1 and below which would suggest she's ok.
    • Ed McMahon had the debut winner last year and has his first runner of the season with Every Second, again for his main owner John Fretwell. He cost a higher price in this context at 38,000gns and the female side of his pedigree is a bit thin. As with Hannon the debut runners for McMahon junior need to have some ability edge to win and some of the earliest runners can flounder around a bit and give away ground in various ways. However, another with a solid profile and hopefully too good for the likes of Smalljohn.
    • There are vague possibilities about Missile Dodger being a solid debut and after that you are into the types who don't look any better than Smalljohn & Miss Hollybell on profile and don't have the advantage of on-course practice. The filly Lucky Score cost 29,000gns and is by the new sire Lucky Story who has made a good start with 2 winners already including Art Connoisseur. Her dam was an Italian Listed race winner over longer distances and overall a likeable profile in that sense. But, the trainer has no record with 2yos so she is on the list to assess rather than being competitive material for today. Give her to Winkworth & Palling and she'd be up near the top of the profile.
    • In summary, the three who have run are underwhelming to various degrees and you just have to believe there is something better in the newcomers. The four on the top of the profile include three who are likely to be at longer odds and Hatchet Man is probably to most complete story to compete strongly for the win. 

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • A race with a strong set of debut contenders including from from smaller stables that get FTO runners mostly ready.
    • Hatchet Man (P Winkworth, Long Shot). Trainer typically runs an early batch with the first often a moderate one and the followers including the best he has. The moderate profile owner bred The Saucy Snipe was his first 2yo runner of the season at Windsor yesterday.
    • Abhainn (B Palling, Long Shot). Unusual early debut if this one is any good. The earliest runners in recent years have been more limited and the debut winners from May onwards. Owner bred for an important connection for the stable (Anita's Prince, etc..)
    • Every Second (ES McMahon, All). Trainer has improved his debut record in each of first 3 years and wins have come at longer SPs. Can still throw in really inexperienced runners FTO. Won this race last with a useful debut runner for the same, very important, owner to the McMahon family in John Fretwell. Ought to be a good 2yo and if competent should compete well.
    • Missile Dodger (RM Beckett, All), Non-runner in a tough looking Leicester maiden last Saturday and runs here in an auction race and gets weight from the higher priced colts. Lightweight profile in the context of this race which has prospects to be pretty tough as well.

    ~ BATH 2:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 HATCHET MAN [38] - 1 35
    4 ABHAINN [36] +2 1 18
    12 CARESSING [35] +7 1 29
    1 EVERY SECOND [34] - 1 33
    10 SMALLJOHN [29] +4 3 25 1 25 21
    14 MISS HOLLYBELL [28] +9 2 18 1 18
    5 MISSILE DODGER [25] +2 1 26
    2 FYELEHK [24] - 2 15 1 15 28
    13 LISLIN [22] +9 1 24
    8 MAZZOLA [16] +4 1 35
    9 PAYMASTER IN CHIEF [13] +4 1 24
    6 CALYPSO PRINCE [8] +4 1 24
    11 LUCKY SCORE [8] +5 1
    7 FORSTER ISLAND [2] +4 1 14

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