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Another Auction race today with a good version at Bath. The two recent
Auction races for fillies have been lower quality events with the limit
on topweights around 25,000gns. They have been won by fillies who had shown
good form on debut and converted that promise in receipt of weight STO.
The winner at Ripon cost 2,000gns and yesterday's Windsor victress cost
10,000gns. So, there are bargains at the sales if you know what to look
for.
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This Bath race has a different shape to it and has a history of producing
good winners. The main provider of the quality has been Richard Hannon
but a range of other stables have chipped in with solid 2yos. Hannon won
the race for 4 years consecutively starting with Presto Vento's win in
2002. That filly went on to win the Supersprint and was a Listed winner
at 3yo. The 3 colts that followed included two (Soonest & Green Pride)
who rated 95+ and the other was an 80+ type. In 2006 Brian Meehan won with
the useful Deadshot Keen on STO and Hannon had solid placer Kyle third
on his debut. Last year Ed McMahon provided a useful debut winner for John
Fretwell with a solid Meehan filly in second and a Hannon 70ish rater well
back.
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With that record you would be disappointed if the three who have already
run can win this race. Smalljohn & Miss Hollybell both
come to the race having managed places in previous runs but the form isn't
even good seller standard taking a 'whole season' view. Both are smaller,
limited, types and the topweights in this auction should include some who
are just plain too good for them. This is not a race with the same profile
make-up as those fillies' events. In theory Fyelekh should perhaps
be taken a bit more seriously as he cost 30,000gns so could be one of those
better topweights. But he looked immature both mentally and physically
at Leicester on debut and ran poorly in a moderate quality race. You can
already here the pundit saying that Fyelekh finished 7 lengths behind Art
Connoisseur on debut and if he came on a bit for that, etc. But the winner
won so comfortably that line of reasoning doesn't stand up. Fyelekh was
a negative on Paddock Review and got well beaten by Transcentral.
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The difference between the outlook for this race and the Ripon/Windsor
affairs extends further because there are a range of horses on debut who
come from serious trainers and at least 2 ought to be up cruising past
Smalljohn as he wilts into the final furlong. Peter Winkworth has an NH
background and started running a few 2yos back in 2004 when he had a 20/1
debut winner with his second juvenile runner and that one went on to place
in the Windsor Castle. The quality has been variable in the years since
then but the debut readiness has usually been there. Debut winners at 20/1
in 2006 and 40/1 last year have got him into the 'Long Shot' P&L tracking
for 2008.
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He's had 11 other placed debuts 2005-7, mostly at longer odds, including
a 66/1 third in this race behind Hannon's Green Pride in 2005. His first
2yo runner ran respectably in 6th at Windsor yesterday and Hatchet Man
has a stronger profile and you presume is close to his best early 2yo.
He cost 32,000gns and his dam was well related although she hasn't done
much as stud to date. He's by new sire Needwood Blade who we are still
learning about and didn't make any impact at 2yo although ne proved a Group
class 5f winner as an older horse. Anyway, a solid profile and a lively
outsider if at typical odds for the trainer despite his wide draw.
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Bryn Palling is hidden away in Wales and the word 'unfashionable' fits
very well with him. As with Winkworth, the market has a blind spot with
him and doesn't take him seriously. But, he gets his 2yos fit and ready
for debut and the odd FTO wins he gets are always at longer odds. He gets
into the P&L tracking as well and runs Abhainn here on debut.
This is a bit early for him to get a debut winner and his earliest runners
have typically been more ordinary to moderate types who struggle to win
although can show up well FTO through pure tuning. Abhainn is by Hawk Wing
who managed just a single 5f win in his first year with representatives
in 2007 and the dam has looked more of a 6f+ producer. So, a less complete
profile than Hatchet Man but he could well show up near the front of the
race when the music stops, and at a longer SP.
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Given the Hannon background anything he runs here has to be taken seriously
and he has the cheapish (14,000gns) filly Caressing on debut. The
normal mantra applies. His debut runners are rarely strongly primed and
the ones that win FTO are usually higher class runners who win on ability.
Caressing has just an okish pedigree and doesn't look a better type on
profile. But, Presto Vento only cost 18,500gns when she ran away with this
in 2002 and you could say the same. The 'Market' might be a little help
here if she gets backed down to 4/1 and below which would suggest she's
ok.
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Ed McMahon had the debut winner last year and has his first runner of the
season with Every Second, again for his main owner John Fretwell.
He cost a higher price in this context at 38,000gns and the female side
of his pedigree is a bit thin. As with Hannon the debut runners for McMahon
junior need to have some ability edge to win and some of the earliest runners
can flounder around a bit and give away ground in various ways. However,
another with a solid profile and hopefully too good for the likes of Smalljohn.
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There are vague possibilities about Missile Dodger being a solid
debut and after that you are into the types who don't look any better than
Smalljohn & Miss Hollybell on profile and don't have the advantage
of on-course practice. The filly Lucky Score cost 29,000gns and
is by the new sire Lucky Story who has made a good start with 2 winners
already including Art Connoisseur. Her dam was an Italian Listed race winner
over longer distances and overall a likeable profile in that sense. But,
the trainer has no record with 2yos so she is on the list to assess rather
than being competitive material for today. Give her to Winkworth &
Palling and she'd be up near the top of the profile.
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In summary, the three who have run are underwhelming to various
degrees and you just have to believe there is something better in the newcomers.
The four on the top of the profile include three who are likely to be at
longer odds and Hatchet Man is probably to most complete story to
compete strongly for the win.
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