British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Preview - May 13th 
Races :-
  • 78: Yarmouth 2:30, 6f Maiden (5)

  •   May 13th Summary : 
    • The Yarmouth maiden is over 6f and features what appears to be a solid favourite, unlike the recent examples of Rayvin Mad (3rd at 4/5f), Senatorial (5th at 9/4) or even Art Princess (scrambled home over 5.1f at evens and wouldn't have won at 5f). Cool Art was chosen by his new trainer to represent him in the maiden at Newmarket on 1,000 Guineas day. He cost a lot of money and runs for an important owner - M. Green - and you would presume he wouldn't peak a duff one for that race.
    • On the day he presented in Paddock Review as a good type but not ready to show his best first time. Too immature mentally and added to that a lack of tightness and higher level condition generally. In that context it was a little surprising to see him backed on the day to compete for second favouritism behind two runners with solid debut runs in place. The race was run at just a medium pace and developed into a later race speed test given the quality of horse in the group. He was fifth at halfway and didn't manage to make much progress in the sprint with the taking winner (Finjaan) getting from 6th behind him to win and the outclassed You Avin A Laugh faded behind him having tried to mix it with the 'big lads' early in the race.
    • He steps up to 6f pretty much at the earliest opportunity (Yarmouth is much closer than the trainer shipping him up to Haydock last Saturday) and dropped to what ought to be a winnable race. His Paddock Review report lifts him out of the 'opposable' category and so long as the debut has brought him forward, mentally and in condition, you would like to see him win a little comfortably here. He's aided in his convert-second-time bid by having just an ordinary group to oppose him unless one of Kings Troop or Shaweel is notably better in reality than they look in profile.
    • Mymateeric was supported on debut in a Class 4 at Pontefract run on heavy ground. That race often features a good group of Northern juveniles but looked thin on quality this year, especially with Art Princess & Go Nani Go (both winners since), bypassing the race because of the slop. He raced in the centre of the course throughout and after being close to the pace at halfway faded notably. The trainer usually stats his most competitive 2yo either first or second runner each season and they often compete well FTO. It's possible better was expected of this one and he will run better here on faster ground. Even so he doesn't have the profile (which includes a below average Sales Report) to be up to Cool Art's standard.
    • Henry Cecil has his first runner of the year with the cheap (by his standards) purchase Kings Troop. This is a normal time for him to start the odd precocious one out these days and the earlier debuts will include most of the season's winners at less than 8f. Try looking at this 'FRAG' file for his debuts in 2007 which is ordered by date. The horses names on the left are colour coded as Green = Season Winner (dark green is Debut Winner); Amber = placed during the season; Red = unplaced all starts; White = Only ran once. The listing also gives information such as the debut estimate and the final column is the percentage of the best estimate that the horse ran to on it's debut. 
    • So, the first 9 debuts contained 6 winners plus 3 that placed (two placed on all outings). It's also possible to quite easily see that the later season debuts, say after mid August in 2007, were mostly developments types just having a potter round at 2yo to give them something to think about. Plus a few hopeless cases, of course. The two later season debuts who won during the season (Tomintoul Flyer & Twice Over) both made their debuts over 8f and both won over 10f as juveniles to give you an idea how the trainer's mind was working. More staying & development types (unlike the 5-7f ones) = start them later and step them up to win. Both seemed to surprise him a little given that Tomintoul Flyer proved a good 10f winner but was only 12/1 on debut and Twice Over has gone back to 8f after the 10f win at 2yo and isn't necessarily seen as a Derby runner.
    • The other point to note is that the high class Twice Over was his only debut winner and his only others in the last three years have been with the useful Star Cluster and a late season accident at Wolverhampton with Phoenix Tower who has proved quite good. This is a good point to consider how trainers change their approach over time. Go back to 1996 and Cecil's record with debut runners was 14 from 37 and pushing towards 40%. That's aided by a lot of quality, of course, but also shows how his debut runners then were ready to win. Even in his decline period he was still showing 9 from 26 (36%) debut successes in 1999 and 4 from 15 (27%) in 2002. My, how the 'Market' used to over-react to anything he ran back then. But, as well as not having the range of quality he used to, he doesn't prime his horses in the same way for debut. He's a little below average now and it's the very best types that tend to win FTO in middling races.
    • Which means that Kings Troop ought to be a usable 2yo who will find his win but would need Cool Art to lose a wheel in some form to contrive a victory although a competent effort should be expected.
    • Mark Johnston hasn't had a 2yo winner yet and the debut runs have been a bit variable. Shaweel is an expensive purchase for the Maktoum's with a thin pedigree on the dam's side. She cost a lot of money herself as a yearling but wasn't very good, quite poor as a runner, and got sold off for 10,000 & 5,000 guineas as a broodmare as she descended the ladder. But, she's back and the person who bought her for 5,000 has a good return because the first foal has sold for 120,000 and a good profit (minus Dansili's covering fee and other costs). The extended got a bit of a boost last year with a half sister to the dam producing good 2yo Nijoom Dubai but that it so 'distant' in genetic terms as to be irrelevant (in reality and not in perception, and therefore desirability, terms) to Shaweel. But, we ought to think the sales cost had a lot to do with physical presence 
    • In recent seasons the trainer only gets odd debut winners before Royal Ascot and most often in two types. The first is occasional precocious types who can win over 5f. The second is targeted win over 6f in mid-May (as we are coming to now) with a better type. Shaweel is for a typical owner for that targeted win but the Race he usually targets is the 6f maiden which will be run at Ripon on Sunday (18th May). The ones he runs at the upcoming York meeting are often useful but often blow out at the meeting. So, Shaweel might be a better one but you would perhaps think he would be at York or Ripon if he were near the top of the quality he has for the owner. Even the recent better ones have usually needed Ripon to win first try.
    • The other two runners Yokozuna & Olaudah Equinao both seem likely to be average types and not up to winning on debut. Mark Tompkins who trains the second of those hasn had only one debut winner in 2002-7 with Babodana back in 2002. Ed Dunlop gets a few more but isn't a FTO target type either.
    • In summary, a solid favourite this time on profile and not one to oppose lightly. Interest in Kings Troop & Shaweel for the level they can reach but wouldn't beat a full force Cool Art on debut. Mymateeric ought to be better than he showed at Pontefract but that would leave him competing for a surprise place depending on the readiness & quality of the tow best profiled newcomers.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • None Today.

    ~ YARM 2:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 COOL ART [52] - 2 43 1 43
    2 KINGS TROOP [38] - 1 36
    5 SHAWEEL [32] - 1 32
    6 YOKOZUNA [28] - 1 21
    4 OLAUDAH EQUINAO [24] - 1 26
    3 MYMATEERIC [18] - 2 -4 1 -4

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