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The second of the traditional, pre-Royal Ascot, 5f Listed races at Sandown
today with the National Stakes. Along with the Hilary Needler Trophy,
for fillies only, these were seen as trials for the 5f events at the Royal
Meeting - Queen Mary (now Group 2 for fillies), Norfolk Stakes (now Group
2 for colts & geldings) and the Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed level
and seen as the second level below the two Group races). Both races had
been usurped in their position as the earliest Listed races in 2005 when
the Marygate (fillies at York May meeting) & Augbigny Stakes (Goodwood)
were invented. THe second of those races appears to have disappeared this
year.
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Although billed as trials for Ascot both the Hilary Needler and the National
Stakes have limited importance in providing the winners at that meeting
in any of the three races. The Beverley event has been won by Northern
trainers in 9 of the last 10 years and only Attraction (a freak form the
strongest Northern stable) won at the Royal meeting. The last three Beverley
winners have finished 4th, 11th & 9th in the Queen Mary with mostly
representatives from the major Southern stables, plus Irish juveniles,
in front of them. The Beverley race has produced some Group class winners
from the placed horses but, again, often from Southern sources. Cheveley
Park winner Donna Blini (Donna Blini) was runner-up in 2005 and Rising
Cross was in 5th int he same event (not the typical career path for a filly
who is going to be placed in the Oaks).
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The Hilary Needler is often won by the OR80s handicapper type of filly
who is below Listed class after early season and this year's race looked
to be the same, at best. The chance of better quality from the race seemed
to rely on Haigh Hall, Minatorius and Percolator (whom the trainer had
already said would probably go pot-hunting in France in June rather than
to Ascot). The last named refused to go into her stall so we didn't find
out whether her win in France was as 'soft' as the going. Minatorius went
off too fast and was tiring before the final furlong and is worth another
chance to prove herself as a nippy sprinter in maiden company.
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Tim Easterby's record with 2yos has got worse in recent seasons despite
the large number of juveniles he runs. A filly with Haigh Hall's profile
would have competed strongly and probably won before going on to be competitive
in the Queen Mary. In recent year's the sureness of progression has gone
along with a number of other positive indicators. She didn't appear to
have any excuse for not producing a better finish in the race even if it
didn't carry her to the win. Instead she folded in the last half furlong.
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Which means that with the possible quality underperforming we were left
with a low quality race between early season fillies without longer term
futures at higher level. If we take the OR88-90 level as typical of the
better end of these type of races (the Easterby fillies On The Brink, Miss
Meggy & Cristal Clear would be good examples) then Knavesmire &
Caranbola don't appear to be up to that level. They are probably lower
OR80s fillies in the whole season view and the trainer was reportedly not
thinking about Royal Ascot for either of them. Both had been beaten more
times then they had won before Beverley although the trainer would use
the 'beaten by good horses' formulation. That's probably true but just
highlights the fact that, even in early season, there are better horses
than Caranbola & Knavesmire (admirable and terrific value for money
though they both are) around and that's what the better races are about
finding. This year the Hilary Needler looked just a solid early Conditions
race or Novice event in quality.
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[Question 4 (a) Yesterday the Brocklesby 3rd won the Hilary Needler while
the 4th was getting stuffed in a bad Yarmouth Seller. What's going on?
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The National Stakes has a stronger list of previous winners and competitors
than the Hilary Needler although it can degenerate into a Conditions race
in off years. 2007 was such a year and the field below later season Listed
level. But, in the good years it doesn't take an anomaly like Attraction
to produce a good one. The last 5 winners have included Excellent Art (Group
2 juvenile and Group 1 at 3yo), Russian Valour (Norfolk Stakes victor),
Salut D'Amour (Group 2 placed twice in later season) & Polly Perkins
(lower class but a later Listed winner).
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Before looking at this year's race it is worth briefly noting the similarities
in race types that can occur at Sandown & Beverley. The Yorkshire track
is steeper and on a turn to the right most of the way which contributes
to the high draw bias. The Sandown course is straight and a consistent
slope from start to finish (go to the track by train and you can walk the
hill yourself to get a feel for the gradient). The high draw bias at Sandown
owes a lot to a better strip of ground next to the far rail. At both courses
firmer going and bigger, evenly matched, fields show up the draw bias more.
Recent Hilary Needler winners have come from various stall positions because
soft ground has been added to the mix. Plus, the other best way
to break up the bias, a frantic pace. These Listed races often feature
a number of naturally forward going young sprinters and they often combine
to break each other up by some point into the last furlong. They are then
easy marks for runners who have been out the back, often outpaced and driven
along, as they run very slow last furlongs (remember that those last furlong
'finishes' you often see are worthless beating up on stalled runners who
have more pace but didn't use it economically). This type of race conclusion
is common at Sandown and often makes runners look better than they are
and allows average and moderate horses to nick places at long odds while
achieving nothing of note.
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This year's field looks better than last year and with more chance of some
longer term significance. The fillies look the Conditions level, borderline
Listed class, type that would have been at home at Beverley the previous
evening. The colts look a stronger set and top of the pile is Finjaan.
Regular readers will be aware that he made a very good impression in Paddock
Review and won well despite not looking strongly fit and too wound up to
concentrate fully. If he has gone the right way mentally B2yoR would hope
that he can win well to set a marker for the 5f colts.
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Zezao stood out as the best physical type at Windsor were he made
his debut in a Novice event. He was too unaware of what was required to
run a proper race but was on the 'to follow' list. He was a much better
long term prospect in that field that the lightly made winner - River Rye
- who has been put into her quality context when beaten by colts since.
To run at Pontefract she ducked out of the Bath Novice race that Zezao
won, along with the three others with solid recent runs. Which left Zezao
the easy job of seeing off two useless runners plus the Brocklesby winner
Sally's Dilemma who again ran ok for 3 furlongs before bursting. A different
physical type to Finjaan but one that ought to be good enough to get to
the Windsor Castle field at Ascot at least.
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Icesolator hasn't been Paddock Reviewed but has developed quickly
up the Hannon quality rankings and hasn't been hard pressed to win his
last two races. He is penalised 5lbs and winning under penalties in any
grade seems to be difficult. It probably highlights that, other than a
few very high-class runners, the upper tier is made up of a group of 2yos
of roughly similar ability. Agente Parmigiano is a different type
physically to either Finjaan or Zezao and is less strongly built. He reminds
the B2yoR reviewer of Mount Pleasure from 2007 who relied a lot of superior
athleticism to make up for a lack of raw power. If Finjaan & Zezao
fulfil their potential and run competent races he should find them a touch
too powerful though.
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