British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - May 29th 
Races :-
  • 127: Ayr 2:20, 6f Maiden (4)
  • 128: Newcastle 6:30, 6f Maiden Fillies' (4)
  • 129: Sandown 6:40, 5f Listed (1) "National Stakes"
  • 130: Yarmouth 3:10, 5.2f Seller

  •   May 29th Summary : 
     
    • The second of the traditional, pre-Royal Ascot, 5f Listed races at Sandown today with the National Stakes. Along with the Hilary Needler Trophy, for fillies only, these were seen as trials for the 5f events at the Royal Meeting - Queen Mary (now Group 2 for fillies), Norfolk Stakes (now Group 2 for colts & geldings) and the Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed level and seen as the second level below the two Group races). Both races had been usurped in their position as the earliest Listed races in 2005 when the Marygate (fillies at York May meeting) & Augbigny Stakes (Goodwood) were invented. THe second of those races appears to have disappeared this year.
    • Although billed as trials for Ascot both the Hilary Needler and the National Stakes have limited importance in providing the winners at that meeting in any of the three races. The Beverley event has been won by Northern trainers in 9 of the last 10 years and only Attraction (a freak form the strongest Northern stable) won at the Royal meeting. The last three Beverley winners have finished 4th, 11th & 9th in the Queen Mary with mostly representatives from the major Southern stables, plus Irish juveniles, in front of them. The Beverley race has produced some Group class winners from the placed horses but, again, often from Southern sources. Cheveley Park winner Donna Blini (Donna Blini) was runner-up in 2005 and Rising Cross was in 5th int he same event (not the typical career path for a filly who is going to be placed in the Oaks). 
    • The Hilary Needler is often won by the OR80s handicapper type of filly who is below Listed class after early season and this year's race looked to be the same, at best. The chance of better quality from the race seemed to rely on Haigh Hall, Minatorius and Percolator (whom the trainer had already said would probably go pot-hunting in France in June rather than to Ascot). The last named refused to go into her stall so we didn't find out whether her win in France was as 'soft' as the going. Minatorius went off too fast and was tiring before the final furlong and is worth another chance to prove herself as a nippy sprinter in maiden company. 
    • Tim Easterby's record with 2yos has got worse in recent seasons despite the large number of juveniles he runs. A filly with Haigh Hall's profile would have competed strongly and probably won before going on to be competitive in the Queen Mary. In recent year's the sureness of progression has gone along with a number of other positive indicators. She didn't appear to have any excuse for not producing a better finish in the race even if it didn't carry her to the win. Instead she folded in the last half furlong.
    • Which means that with the possible quality underperforming we were left with a low quality race between early season fillies without longer term futures at higher level. If we take the OR88-90 level as typical of the better end of these type of races (the Easterby fillies On The Brink, Miss Meggy & Cristal Clear would be good examples) then Knavesmire & Caranbola don't appear to be up to that level. They are probably lower OR80s fillies in the whole season view and the trainer was reportedly not thinking about Royal Ascot for either of them. Both had been beaten more times then they had won before Beverley although the trainer would use the 'beaten by good horses' formulation. That's probably true but just highlights the fact that, even in early season, there are better horses than Caranbola & Knavesmire (admirable and terrific value for money though they both are) around and that's what the better races are about finding. This year the Hilary Needler looked just a solid early Conditions race or Novice event in quality. 
    • [Question 4 (a) Yesterday the Brocklesby 3rd won the Hilary Needler while the 4th was getting stuffed in a bad Yarmouth Seller. What's going on?
    • The National Stakes has a stronger list of previous winners and competitors than the Hilary Needler although it can degenerate into a Conditions race in off years. 2007 was such a year and the field below later season Listed level. But, in the good years it doesn't take an anomaly like Attraction to produce a good one. The last 5 winners have included Excellent Art (Group 2 juvenile and Group 1 at 3yo), Russian Valour (Norfolk Stakes victor), Salut D'Amour (Group 2 placed twice in later season) & Polly Perkins (lower class but a later Listed winner).
    • Before looking at this year's race it is worth briefly noting the similarities in race types that can occur at Sandown & Beverley. The Yorkshire track is steeper and on a turn to the right most of the way which contributes to the high draw bias. The Sandown course is straight and a consistent slope from start to finish (go to the track by train and you can walk the hill yourself to get a feel for the gradient). The high draw bias at Sandown owes a lot to a better strip of ground next to the far rail. At both courses firmer going and bigger, evenly matched, fields show up the draw bias more. Recent Hilary Needler winners have come from various stall positions because soft ground has been added to the mix. Plus, the other best way to break up the bias, a frantic pace. These Listed races often feature a number of naturally forward going young sprinters and they often combine to break each other up by some point into the last furlong. They are then easy marks for runners who have been out the back, often outpaced and driven along, as they run very slow last furlongs (remember that those last furlong 'finishes' you often see are worthless beating up on stalled runners who have more pace but didn't use it economically). This type of race conclusion is common at Sandown and often makes runners look better than they are and allows average and moderate horses to nick places at long odds while achieving nothing of note.
    • This year's field looks better than last year and with more chance of some longer term significance. The fillies look the Conditions level, borderline Listed class, type that would have been at home at Beverley the previous evening. The colts look a stronger set and top of the pile is Finjaan. Regular readers will be aware that he made a very good impression in Paddock Review and won well despite not looking strongly fit and too wound up to concentrate fully. If he has gone the right way mentally B2yoR would hope that he can win well to set a marker for the 5f colts.
    • Zezao stood out as the best physical type at Windsor were he made his debut in a Novice event. He was too unaware of what was required to run a proper race but was on the 'to follow' list. He was a much better long term prospect in that field that the lightly made winner - River Rye - who has been put into her quality context when beaten by colts since. To run at Pontefract she ducked out of the Bath Novice race that Zezao won, along with the three others with solid recent runs. Which left Zezao the easy job of seeing off two useless runners plus the Brocklesby winner Sally's Dilemma who again ran ok for 3 furlongs before bursting. A different physical type to Finjaan but one that ought to be good enough to get to the Windsor Castle field at Ascot at least.
    • Icesolator hasn't been Paddock Reviewed but has developed quickly up the Hannon quality rankings and hasn't been hard pressed to win his last two races. He is penalised 5lbs and winning under penalties in any grade seems to be difficult. It probably highlights that, other than a few very high-class runners, the upper tier is made up of a group of 2yos of roughly similar ability. Agente Parmigiano is a different type physically to either Finjaan or Zezao and is less strongly built. He reminds the B2yoR reviewer of Mount Pleasure from 2007 who relied a lot of superior athleticism to make up for a lack of raw power. If Finjaan & Zezao fulfil their potential and run competent races he should find them a touch too powerful though.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • An Carrig  (Ayr, KR Burke, 5-6f). Trainer into his prime period. This one cost 130,000gns and ought to be a better debut by his standards.
    • Jaslyn  (Newcastle, JR Weymes, Long Shot). Trainer gets odd debut winners and always at longer SPs. No worthwhile debut performance to date in 2008 but previous wins have occurred at various times through the season. This one has close to nothing to recommend it and is in a solid field by Northern standards in a Class 4 race. By the first season sire Pyrus who seems unlikely to make any impact on his runners to date.

    ~ AYR 2:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 SHAWEEL [48] - 2 45 1 45 32
    1 AN CARRIG [34] - 1 24
    4 VERINCO [30] - 2 12 1 12 29
    2 NIGHT OF FORTUNE [29] - 1 28

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    ~ NEWC 6:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 CAMELOT COMMUNION [43] - 3 41 2 16 25
    1 BARBEE [38] - 3 22 2 22 21
    8 VOULEZVOUS [36] - 3 34 2 26 30
    7 SPRING TALE [35] - 2 24 1 24 33
    4 HONIMIERE [32] - 2 23 1 23 23
    9 WOTEVA [26] - 3 28 1 28 33
    6 MUTUALLY MINE [21] - 1 18
    5 JASLYN [12] - 1 26
    3 COMMON DIVA [2] - 2 -3 1 -3 12

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    ~ SDWN 6:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 FINJAAN [70] - 2 57 1 57 35
    1 ICESOLATOR [60] -5 4 54 3 32 29
    5 ZEZAO [58] - 3 28
    2 AGENTE PARMIGIANO [52] - 2 39 1 39
    8 FAZBEE [48] +5 3 42 2 39 49
    6 FOUNDATION ROOM [42] +2 2 36 1 36 37
    4 POCKET'S PICK [42] - 1
    7 CALYPSO GIRL [38] +5 4 38 2 -2 21
    9 LUCKY LEIGH [36] +5 2 26 1 26 35

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    ~ YARM 3:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 ELUSIVE RONNIE [12] - 3 3 1 3
    3 MAJ WILLIAM MARTIN [10] - 1 36
    6 IN THE MOMENT [6] +5 3 -13 2 -23 11
    7 SIMPLE RHYTHM [5] +5 2 -52 1 -52 23
    4 MAKALUNA [4] - 3 -13 1 -13 11
    5 CHAMPAGNE LEADER [2] +5 2 -16 1 -16 34
    8 TALULAH BELLS [2] +5 5 -7 2 -123 32
    2 HUNCH [0] - 1

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