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Three at Windsor :-
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Green Beret (JHM Gosden, June to August). Trainer does not
target strong debuts and they come along with the better runners. If you
look back after the season has closed to which were his strongest FTO performances
then they usually match quite closely to the best 2yos he had during the
season. The better ones can always fluff a debut so there will be the odd
better type with an unplaced kick off outing.
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2, 6 & 4 debut winners in the June to August period in 2005-7 seasons
and a 20 points profit in backing them all in each individual year. The
unpressed preparation means that even the better ones can start at good
SPs and the same process of looking back at season end won't show much
pattern of ability to FTO SP (if the 'Market' is to be informative it ought
to and it is with a few trainers).
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This runner missed his intended debut in a weak 6f race at Lingfield last
week which he should have been able to win. He lands in a tougher looking
group here with a bigger field and the usual problem of estimating the
effect of the stands' rail bias at Windsor. He's out of 'Central Casting'
for a trainer debut winner being an expensive purchase for Princess Haya
Of Jordan for whom he had three debut winners in 2006 and two last year.
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He's got a good 5f pedigree which almost makes you wonder about the 6f
start but that is probably trainer linked and with Hannon or Channon, for
example, he would already have run over 5f. A good chance to compete for
the win but not the certainty he would have been at Lingfield last week.
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Dark Mischief (H Candy, June To August). No debut winner in
2006-7 for Mr Candy but the four years before that the STO strike rate
was abnormally good and very profitable to follow. The fallow years have
coincided with an illness problem with his horses but his form in 2008
to date with 3yo+ runners suggest that this is under control if not entirely
fixed.
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His first 2yo runner last week was the 1,500 gns purchase Amour Propre
who was very well prepared in condition terms and ran better than his finishing
position being well placed until a late fade. This one has a pedigree and
cost 34,000 gns. Unlike Green Beret he has a non sprinting pedigree and
it's probably a good sign he's out this early over 6f. Ought to be interesting
each-way material and drawn next to the stands' rail.
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Elusive Commitments (PD Evans, Long Shot). Mr Evans is entirely
different from the other two trainers in many ways. He gets his horses
ready for early season debuts and that's when the FTO winners come with
the better types. He had two debut wins by April 9th and the last was on
April 30th and the last 5 debuts haven't got involved. THis looks like
another 'leftover' of limited ability on profile.
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