Madame Trop Vite (Chester, KA Ryan, 5f). A very open race
lacking any runner with a strong profile and a 'surprise' result quite
possible. Stable jockey Callan rides and a breeze-up retainee for connections
that have provided high class juveniles for him recently. However, drawn
in stall 10 which is a really tough assignment.
The better drawn horses in the race don't have strong debut profiles. Mark
Brisbourne hasn't had a debut winner in the period 1999-2007 and no debut
runner has won at the course in 2002-7. Which doesn't make Lily Waters
look attractive. In stall 2 is a very expensive breeze up purchase who
ought to be some good but his trainer (returning to train for a major owner)
has had two woeful debuts so far. The breeze up preparation wasn't done
by him so perhaps this one will be better. But not tempting either. Josiah
Bartlett is on his third run in stall 3 but has shown little and faded
badly after some early pace.
Robin The Till is in 4 and drops back to 5f after going berserk over 6f
on puddingy ground last time and fading. He was nearly 3 lengths clear
after a furlong after a very slick break that time. He broke left FTO which
is less of a problem on this course. He ought to be able to get to the
lead but has faded tamely in the previous two runs and hasn't proved he
would see this, relatively stiff, 5f out. More newcomers for non-FTO trainers
in 5 & 6 including a very small half sister to Group 1 sprinter Reverence
for Eric Alston who might well place.
Another early-pace fader in 7 and a moderate type in 8 for Alan Berry.
Stall 9 is another pace forcer and given the newcomers Robin The Till might
have Neo's Mate & Dedante (the 9 occupant) chasing him and see who
fades first. We are now out into the 'car-park' draws and haven't found
a strong profile. The trainer who does get surprise debut winners at this
time is Ron Hollinshead but his Tillers Satisfied is in box 12 and is a
newcomer lacking a real 5f pedigree.
Which is why Robin The Till, with his excuses for two moderate final results
to date, comes out on top and you can still believe Madame Trop Vite (she'll
need to be less than trop vite for this contest) might get involved in
Moroccan Party (Redcar 2:30, MW Easterby, Long Shot). Mr Easterby
hasn't run the normal range of 2yos so far. Those he has run have looked
moderate and other than Carmanjoe haven't got involved. This is another
owner bred with a moderate pedigree.
Cavendish Road (WR Muir, 5-6f). First of his second batch of starters.
The longer priced debut winners tend to come along from Jul on.
Endofmytether (PD Evans, Long Shot). Late debut for trainer
who starts the 2yos early normally. Has a non sprint pedigree and is by
the new sire Needwood Blade who's raft of early runners have made no impact.
He showed only moderate 2yo form before developing into a Group/Grade 3
type as an older horse after going up the handicap with wins at 3yo. The
dam here didn't win until she was 5yo. Mr Evans will still get odd debut
wins in this type of race with the right material for early mid-season
debuts but this isn't an obvious better type for 'now'. Well drawn in 18
if she can ping the break.