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The first day of Royal Ascot has a pair of 2yo events with the 6f Group
2 "Coventry Stakes" for colts and geldings and the 5f Listed "Windsor Castle
Stakes" open to both sexes. The 5f race is a second level 5f event in effect
with the main 5f races late in the week ("Queen Mary" for fillies and the
"Norfolk Stakes" for the males).
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A typically large field for the Coventry but, as ever, the field will cover
a wide range of real abilities and the number of true Group class performers
in the field will be small. If you look at the Result
for last year you will get the idea of a typical class range of runners,
both on the day and when scope to improve with age is demonstrated. The
winner was Henrythenavigator who had the profile to still be around at
Group level at 3yo and that has proved to be the case. The runner-up had
the profile to be a good Listed performer ultimately and got well beaten
in an all-age 5f Listed race two days ago at Salisbury. Look down the rest
of the field and you can see that it isn't stuffed with Group class runners,
even as 2yos.
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Go back to the 2006
Result and we have a similar set-up but with just a little more class
at overall. Buried away in the field is Aidan O'Brien's Holy Roman Emporer
who proved the best 2yo of the field but, presumably, found the large field
too much mentally early in his career. Behind the typically well prepared
Bryan Smart winner there is Major Cadeaux & Tariq who have both won
at Group level as 3yo+.
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Other than the demise of Holy Roman Emporer the two results teach us something
else - Class tells. Even though it's a big field race the better horses
get to the front in the end unless they fail mentally, meet interference
or go too quickly early in the race. The field do spread across the course
and a strong draw bias will move the horses around a little but class seems
to be more important. In general a high draw has been fine in those two
years and running close to the stands' rail probably as good. Getting in
between the two strips, especially if not carried along by a willing pacemaker
can be a disadvantage.
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The race is usually run at a strong pace and this spreads the field out
into a visible demonstration of the real ability of the horses. As well
as 'Class Tells' another good maxim is 'Speed Kills' but it doesn't kill
evenly. High class runners might be able to cruise at 11 seconds/furlong
while a less able runner might be flat out to do it. In races run at good
paces horses 'break' in Class order as the effort tells and you may well
be able to see that here. That's why jockeys on runners travelling comfortably
at the prevailing pace can practise the 'Piggott Perch' while others are
bustling or scrubbing.
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But, too much early pace can kill even very good horses which is why so
much effort is put into getting horses to settle (some will only settle
if in front which is why some horses can improve for that). The Coventry
often features 33/1 'volunteer thirds' who were unable to go the pace before
halfway and well off the leaders. But they bumble along in the second half
of the race and work through the faders and find themselves in a remote
third. Kawagino in 2002 and Capable Guest have been recent examples. You
can then read nonsense like "never reproduced the heights of his 2yo
career.." type stuff when they are running in handicaps off 85 as older
horses. If you only learn one thing from this preview then understanding
that they didn't even have to run to 85 to finish in third in the Coventry
given the shape of the race would be a good one.
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Where were we? The 2008 Coventry Stakes and what to make of this field
on profile. Given that Aidan O'Brien has such a good record in the race
we should start with Peter Tchaikovsky. As a headline O'Brien has
won three of the last seven runnings of the race which would be a fine
return anyway. But, if you look a little further into which horses have
run without winning it becomes more interesting. In 2001 he won with second
string Landseer who went on to be a 3yo Group 1 winner. In 6th that day
was Rock Of Gibraltar who found all the traffic jams going and you know
what he achieved.
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In 2002 he won with Statue Of Liberty who placed at Group 1 level as a
3yo. He didn't have much at all in 2003 and ran the small and limited Newton
who got thumped. In 2004 he ran a couple with the speedier Dark Cheetah
unplaced and the best long term prospect in the race with multiple Group
1 winner Oratorio (not a 6f type) also unplaced. In 2005 Marcus Andronicus
was only 5th but in a solid year for quality with Red Clubs winning (older
Group winner) and Amadeus Wolf placed (older Group winner). The O'Brien
horse went on to place at Group 1 level at 3yo as nearly all his Coventry
runners seem to.
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2006 was Holy Roman Emporer's flop but he came back to prove second only
to Teofilio as a juvenile .He was off to stud (to replace the infertile
and ill-starred George Washington) before we found out whether his lack
of size would have limited him at the top level at 3yo. Henrythenavigator
won last year and the only real Group runner in the field and didn't have
to be anywhere near his best level to win.
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Which gives a good template to assess Peter Tchaichovsky wins. The trainer
tends to run one of two types in the race the first being high class 8f+
types who can compete at 6f as 2yos on basic ability without it being their
real strength (Coolmore are looking to produce Stallions and 6f wins at
2yo are a big bonus in the sales blurb). The best of these can beat average
Coventry fields so long as they handle the mental side and don't get caught
in traffic. If he hasn't got one of these he might run a limited one or
occasionally a 5f sprinter with no long term prospects. Henrythenavigator
had won on debut over 7f before his Coventry win last year and 6f preps
are the usual.
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Peter Tchaichovsky won early over 5f on April 19th without putting up a
strong performance. That early start might indicate he's a small one of
limited ability and just a 5f runaround by the O'Brien standards (deluxe
motoring still in most stables). But, you look at his pedigree and it says
he's the 8f+ Group 1 3yo type. He cost a very high €950,000 at the
main French yearling sales at Deauville and his dam was a 10f Group 3 winner
at 3yo. She's produced 8f+ 3yo winners at stud and the sire (Dansili) gets
winners at all distances and has a good reputation.
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Given that the early 5f win perhaps suggests he's a good one and is the
long term 8f+ Group type as per the O'Brien norm. If he's actually a smaller,
limited 'Newton' here to do duty because something has to than that will
show up in the preliminaries. He comes out top on profile providing he's
more the strapping end of the scale like Henrythenavigator.
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Orizaba is likely to be close to favourite after a 9 length win
on debut in a division of a Newbury maiden. He looked very ready for that
day and pulled clear on puddingy ground which didn't suit many horses.
The third from that race (Jazacosta) has run well stepped up to 7f when
placed at Sandown last week and the fourth (Donativum) wasn't ready to
compete mentally or physically and was still too green when 2nd at Leicester
to another debutant. He drops down to 5f for the "Windsor Castle" and has
blinkers applied to try to get him to run a proper, grown up, race. He
appeared to be making a good late race effort before hanging and bumping
the winner and being eased. So, Orizaba beat some ok types but nothing
special, they haven't gone on to win next time.
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In pure Paddock Review terms he didn't convince the B2yoR guy that he was
the real thing or that he had huge amounts of improvement to make. His
pedigree profile in weak as well. Put all that together and he is one to
oppose at shorter odds and look for something with more substance, both
physically and on profile.
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If we apply the rule of looking for horses who showed something different
in their previous races there are a few you would take to better Orizaba.
Himalya
wasn't paddock reviewed on debut although the market suggested he was a
Noseda 'expected' FTO winner. He was up against a solid (better than anything
Orizaba beat) rival in Seaway who was on his second run. Despite being
inexperienced he had run away from Seaway before the final furlong. It
was only the fact that he ran around and slowed himself up in front that
allowed Seaway to close on him. His pedigree & sales profile is also
stronger than Orizaba.
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Art Connoisseur beat poor rivals on debut and then showed an ability
to quicken (always a good sign and quite rare) when making 2-3 lengths
easily against fading runners with experience and plugging on newcomers
at Newmarket. He steps up to 6f which looks fine on pedigree and should
have the pace to travel comfortably in the race. Which means he should
make a good show but on Paddock Review he is likely to come up a little
short if there is a real high class, bigger 2yo with long term prospect
in the field. He would make an ordinary winner of the race.
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If you ask the reviewer which of the pictures in the 'Virtual Paddock'
niggles at them, i.e. catches the eye without being able to articulate
fully why it is that of Instalment. He won the other division of
the maiden that Orizaba was in and put up a much lesser performance. But,
he was much less ready for the day on, on physical grounds, the better
long term prospect. As the Richard Hughes ride of the three Hannon runners
he ought to be the better one (although riding in the Queen's colours at
the Royal Meeting might have a bearing). He appeals as a better long term
prospect than Orizaba and perhaps he will have caught up with that one
in readiness terms.
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Of the others Intense Focus is Jim Bolger's first Ascot runner for
some time but with his recent record with juveniles he has to be taken
seriously but is hard to place on profile. Lord Shanakill put up
a good performance with a wide margin win at York and hasn't been paddock
reviewed. His trainer's 2yos tend to come up short in these type of races
though and hence the position on profile.
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The Virtual Paddock for the Coventry has pictures of 9 horses and they
are instructive to look at. For example, try looking at the picture of
Smokey
Storm who is a Listed race winner of the 6f Woodcot Stakes. Why wouldn't
he be a leading fancy? The picture shows a smaller, narrower type and with
less size than Orizaba who is also on the narrow side. Forget the form
and just rank the pictures and Smokey Storm doesn't look a leading contender.
Art Connoisseur & Shampagne are both bigger and well grown and
that's part of the reason why they have competed well to date. The Bell
horse is a bit more powerful in the quarters and has a bit more quality.
Blown It is a typical shorter, heavy built precocious 2yo that Jamie
Osborne did well with in 2007. He looks like a slightly better version
of Cee Bargara who was wound up to finish 6th in the Coventry last year.
The trainer has had a virus affecting the 2yos this year so Blown It only
made his debut last week and hasn't had the race conditioning that Cee
Bargara had.
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In summary, the race revolves around what type Peter Tchaichovsky is and
whether he's sharp enough for this big field race. If he is the bigger,
better type he would be a value bet in this group. Orizaba is one to oppose
and the interesting alternatives are Himalya (hasn't proved his mental
strength), Instalment & Art Connoisseur. The Hannon horse is a solid
each-way type and Himalya might just be plain better than most of the others.
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