British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
<< 2008 Season
Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - June 28th 
Races :-
  • 252: Chester 2:15, 5.1f Novice (4)
  • 253: Doncaster 6:40, 7f Maiden (5)
  • 254: Lingfield 7:20, 5f Maiden (5)
  • 255: Newcastle 4:25, 6f Maiden (4)
  • 256: Newmarket July 1:55, 7f Maiden (4)
  • 257: Newmarket July 2:25, 6f Fillies' Listed (1) "Empress Stakes"

  •   June 28th Summary : 
     
    • A fascinating set-up to the Lingfield race. After the euphoria of Royal Ascot racing rolls on and the strength of the form of the juvenile races gets tested soon afterwards. With much of the early season racing of moderate quality and with horses who are still developing, if they have some scope, the feeling tends to be that the Ascot races should be a pinnacle and high class. But, they are still relatively early in the season and are often not that strong in quality outside the leading horses who stood out in the races.
    • Total Gallery  made an above average debut by Stan Moore's standards when second at Goodwood. That race was probably over-rated with the third having been beaten twice since in ordinary maidens. The Moore horse confirmed the view of being one of his better types (he has less ammunition now with the break up with Jim Hay) by going onto Ascot to run in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 5f. A solid size and build in Paddock Review if not that neatly put together confirmed the view that he could be something like an OR85 horse and perhaps a bit better over the season (say, like the trainer's Solent Ridge in 2007).
    • Helped by a good draw in 1 in a big field he finished what looked a good 7th in a big field. There was a definite low draw bias when fields raced there and centre field and you needed to get well across to the far rail to even things up. Mullionmileanhour ran better than the result shows in the Windsor Castle given the strip he raced on. Now, he turns up in an ordinary maiden and that "Ascot 7th" ought to be enough, surely? Well, not one to back strongly at best. He got an [Est] of 56 for that effort and that's probably close to his peak and that's with everything in his favour. That isn't a high level and just a solid handicapper. He isn't unreachable on a plateau above the others in the race, he's probably a similar level to the best of the others and the Ascot tinge will make his price low value.
    • It's actually worse than that because Mr Moore isn't one to trust fully with converting good runs into maiden wins next time. His 2yos often develop with racing and throw in the odd backward step on the way. He's also drawn in stall 1 of 10 and well away from the haven of the stands' rail strip at Lingfield. Firth Of Fifth showed there last week what happens if the best horse in the race gets an easy lead on that magic carpet. That runner had an easy job getting over from stall 1 in a big field but Total Gallery has a tougher group to deal with and early pace in the shape of Dedante & Court Approval (probably) just inside him. Easy to see him getting hung out in centre field at which point he wont win against this group and would struggle against a lesser field.
    • To make matters worse he has three solid rivals in boxes 7-9 who ought to have an easier job being on the rail when the music stops. Battle Of Hastings got a positive in Paddock Review when he made his debut over 6f at Leicester. He looked to lack a bit of size but he was a good mover if lacking some obvious 5f 'snap'. He got outpaced quickly as that raced quickened which seemed to suggest the lack of basic pace was correct. In retrospect the three horses leaving him behind where 7f Chesham Stakes victor Free Agent, Donativum (one place behind Total Gallery from a car park draw in the Windsor Castle) and Senatorial (an OR70s owner bred who found a winnable maiden at Ayr since) so those in front were ok. In that context a bit of a surprise to see him dropped to 5f on a slick track. Spencer rode him at Leicester and interesting to speculate why an outpaced run there over 6f results in a drop to 5f. Anyway, a solid type to follow to nurseries but a surprise if he doesn't find this a bit quick at some point.
    • Mrs Kipling came with a reputation to Great Leighs for her intended debut but was too wound up to get into the stalls and withdrawn. 6 weeks later she ran well to finish 2nd at Nottingham on debut in what looked a solid race. That seems to be over-rated following the defeats of the winner and 5th two days ago (Thursday). The 4th (Izzi Mill) runs on Friday to further test that form. Either way she has a good draw and a should run a solid race. Pocket's Pick made his debut in a Listed race but never got going on soft ground. He made the pace for some way on a stiffer course at Sandown before fading last time. This move to an easier 5f was presumably prompted by that fade. He ought to be able to get to the rail and near the front unless Dedante flies the break and manages to cross in front of the field.
    • In summary, Total Gallery is a test of the Ascot form and comes out top on profile because of the race he ran in. Like watching a man carrying an overloaded tray of drinks you feel there's more likelihood of something going wrong for him in this race set up than a nice neat conclusion (and win). The pace inside him should make it unlikely for him to get to a good position on a draw biased track and the trainer isn't one to trust fully in smooth progression of 2yos form. Dedante probably will do whatever she has to and lead but something with a bit more scope should wear her down (her fate in recent races). Battle Of Hastings is a likeable type but doesn't appeal over a quick 5f so probably a choice between Pocket's Pick and Mrs Kipling.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Doctor Crane  (Doncaster, JHM Gosden, June to August debuts)
    • Tarzan  (Doncaster, M Johnston, 7f Debuts)
    • Worth noting trainer RA Fahey's record with debut runners in 2008. He was included in the 5f debut category for his previous record and had produced 4 FTO winners and a profit overall at that distance. In previous years the debut wins beyond 5f were rare and in general the season often started with some ropey debuts.
    • He either has a very good set of 2yos in 2008 or has changed his approach. When Mister Laurel won FTO 2 days ago over 6f as joint favourite it was his second 6f debut success of 2008 (the earlier 20/1 success at 6f should ensure a profit in that category too). His 17 debut to date over 5-6f this season have produced 6 wins (35% which is remarkably high) and another 7 have placed. That's 13 of 17 debuts have made the first three. Which is the sort of record David Loder used to get when armed with the Maktoum nursery and the time to prepare them as thoroughly as he liked before initial outings. The debut SPs have been only a mild indicator of what to expect in most cases.
    • His next debut is at 6f with Elmfield Boy in the Newcastle maiden over 6f. He is an expensive ($100,000) yearling purchase and the first representative of the US first season sire Medaglio D'Oro (8.5f to 10f Grade 1 winner at 3yo+) out of a 6f winning mare.


    ~ CHES 2:15 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 MAZZOLA [47] - 6 47 3 16 34
    4 EVERY SECOND [46] +7 4 41 3 35 36
    3 RIVER RYE [38] +5 4 35 2 33 35
    2 COUNTRYWIDE CITY [35] +3 4 32 3 19 44
    6 MISSUS CHRISTIE [32] +12 2 31 1 31
    8 THAT BOY RONALDO [15] +12 8 2 -46 2
    7 ROCK ON CIARA [8] +12 2 -16 1 -16
    5 BALLARINA [0] +12 3 -52 2 -75 14

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    ~ DONC 6:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 DOCTOR CRANE [44] - 1 43
    5 TARZAN [40] - 1 38
    6 THUNDERBALL [32] - 2 20 1 20 30
    2 PILOT LIGHT [20] - 1 18
    3 ROYAL EXECUTIONER [20] - 2 6 1 6 44
    4 RUUD REVENGE [12] - 1 34

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    ~ LING 7:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    7 TOTAL GALLERY [50] - 3 56 2 40 21
    5 POCKET'S PICK [42] - 3 39 2 -40 38
    1 BATTLE OF HASTINGS [39] - 2 16 1 16 32
    10 MRS KIPLING [38] +5 2 35 1 35
    9 DEDANTE [32] +5 5 31 4 14 17
    2 COURT APPROVAL [30] - 3 31 1 31 41
    4 ORANGELEG [20] - 1 12
    3 MINENOTYOURS [16] - 1
    6 RUSSIAN ART [11] - 3 15 1 15 34
    8 ZIGGY LEE [10] - 2 12

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    ~ NEWC 4:25 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 ARABIAN FLAME [41] - 1 34
    4 ELMFIELD BOY [40] - 1 32
    5 IVOR NOVELLO [40] - 2 -15 1 -15 34
    9 RED MAX [36] - 2 15 1 15 18
    8 PARISIAN PYRAMID [32] - 1 39
    3 DUBAI HILLS [31] - 2 20 1 20 35
    10 ROYAL MAX [24] - 2 -28 1 -28 32
    6 LAKEMAN [23] - 1
    7 MOON LIGHTNING [22] - 1 28
    11 CHOCOLICIOUS [18] +5 1 35
    2 CASTLE MYTH [12] - 1

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    ~ NMKJ 1:55 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    9 WEALD PARK [44] - 2 25 1 25 35
    5 IMAAM [40] - 1 36
    10 WORTH A KING'S [35] - 1 37
    7 REACTION [33] - 1 34
    2 ARE CAN [32] - 1
    11 AFRICA'S STAR [30] +5 2 7 1 7 42
    4 HOWARD [28] - 1 36
    8 SILENT HERO [27] - 2 -24 1 -24 42
    3 DAZINSKI [25] - 1 28
    1 AL MUKAALA [23] - 1 35
    6 OCEAN'S MINSTREL [20] - 1 16

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    ~ NMKJ 2:25 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 ARES CHOIX [55] - 4 54 3 25 30
    3 BAILEYS CACAO [54] - 3 46 2 40 35
    8 MAGGIE LOU [54] - 2 34 1 34 33
    7 MADAME TROP VITE [52] - 2 33 1 33 33
    10 SELECT [50] - 2 13 1 13 44
    5 GOLDEN ROSIE [49] - 3 36 2 20 37
    4 BARBEE [46] - 4 41 3 22 32
    2 AUNT NICOLA [45] - 3 34 2 29 32
    11 SKRUTON [44] - 3 30 2 -13 22
    6 HARRIET'S GIRL [41] - 4 31 3 -8 35
    9 PEPER HAROW [35] - 2 22 1 22 22

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