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A fascinating set-up to the Lingfield race. After the euphoria of
Royal Ascot racing rolls on and the strength of the form of the juvenile
races gets tested soon afterwards. With much of the early season racing
of moderate quality and with horses who are still developing, if they have
some scope, the feeling tends to be that the Ascot races should be a pinnacle
and high class. But, they are still relatively early in the season and
are often not that strong in quality outside the leading horses who stood
out in the races.
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Total Gallery made an above average debut by Stan Moore's
standards when second at Goodwood. That race was probably over-rated with
the third having been beaten twice since in ordinary maidens. The Moore
horse confirmed the view of being one of his better types (he has less
ammunition now with the break up with Jim Hay) by going onto Ascot to run
in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 5f. A solid size and build in
Paddock Review if not that neatly put together confirmed the view that
he could be something like an OR85 horse and perhaps a bit better over
the season (say, like the trainer's Solent Ridge in 2007).
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Helped by a good draw in 1 in a big field he finished what looked a good
7th in a big field. There was a definite low draw bias when fields raced
there and centre field and you needed to get well across to the far rail
to even things up. Mullionmileanhour ran better than the result shows in
the Windsor Castle given the strip he raced on. Now, he turns up in an
ordinary maiden and that "Ascot 7th" ought to be enough, surely? Well,
not one to back strongly at best. He got an [Est] of 56 for that effort
and that's probably close to his peak and that's with everything in his
favour. That isn't a high level and just a solid handicapper. He isn't
unreachable on a plateau above the others in the race, he's probably a
similar level to the best of the others and the Ascot tinge will make his
price low value.
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It's actually worse than that because Mr Moore isn't one to trust fully
with converting good runs into maiden wins next time. His 2yos often develop
with racing and throw in the odd backward step on the way. He's also drawn
in stall 1 of 10 and well away from the haven of the stands' rail strip
at Lingfield. Firth Of Fifth showed there last week what happens if the
best horse in the race gets an easy lead on that magic carpet. That runner
had an easy job getting over from stall 1 in a big field but Total Gallery
has a tougher group to deal with and early pace in the shape of Dedante
& Court Approval (probably) just inside him. Easy to see him
getting hung out in centre field at which point he wont win against this
group and would struggle against a lesser field.
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To make matters worse he has three solid rivals in boxes 7-9 who ought
to have an easier job being on the rail when the music stops. Battle
Of Hastings got a positive in Paddock Review when he made his debut
over 6f at Leicester. He looked to lack a bit of size but he was a good
mover if lacking some obvious 5f 'snap'. He got outpaced quickly as that
raced quickened which seemed to suggest the lack of basic pace was correct.
In retrospect the three horses leaving him behind where 7f Chesham Stakes
victor Free Agent, Donativum (one place behind Total Gallery from a car
park draw in the Windsor Castle) and Senatorial (an OR70s owner bred who
found a winnable maiden at Ayr since) so those in front were ok. In that
context a bit of a surprise to see him dropped to 5f on a slick track.
Spencer rode him at Leicester and interesting to speculate why an outpaced
run there over 6f results in a drop to 5f. Anyway, a solid type to follow
to nurseries but a surprise if he doesn't find this a bit quick at some
point.
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Mrs Kipling came with a reputation to Great Leighs for her intended
debut but was too wound up to get into the stalls and withdrawn. 6 weeks
later she ran well to finish 2nd at Nottingham on debut in what looked
a solid race. That seems to be over-rated following the defeats of the
winner and 5th two days ago (Thursday). The 4th (Izzi Mill) runs on Friday
to further test that form. Either way she has a good draw and a should
run a solid race. Pocket's Pick made his debut in a Listed race
but never got going on soft ground. He made the pace for some way on a
stiffer course at Sandown before fading last time. This move to an easier
5f was presumably prompted by that fade. He ought to be able to get to
the rail and near the front unless Dedante flies the break and manages
to cross in front of the field.
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In summary, Total Gallery is a test of the Ascot form and comes out top
on profile because of the race he ran in. Like watching a man carrying
an overloaded tray of drinks you feel there's more likelihood of something
going wrong for him in this race set up than a nice neat conclusion (and
win). The pace inside him should make it unlikely for him to get to a good
position on a draw biased track and the trainer isn't one to trust fully
in smooth progression of 2yos form. Dedante probably will do whatever she
has to and lead but something with a bit more scope should wear her down
(her fate in recent races). Battle Of Hastings is a likeable type but doesn't
appeal over a quick 5f so probably a choice between Pocket's Pick and Mrs
Kipling.
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